National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 211442 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 52 25(77) 3(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 15N 125W 50 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 22(32) 4(36) X(36) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 25(31) 6(37) 1(38) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 15(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 211441 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 ...GILMA INTENSIFYING... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 122.8W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 122.8 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Gilma could become a major hurricane by the end of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Alaka

...GILMA INTENSIFYING... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Gilma was located near 16.0, -122.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 211440 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 122.8W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 120SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 122.8W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.2N 123.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.8N 125.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 127.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.3N 130.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ALAKA

709
ABPZ20 KNHC 211147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Gilma, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized
in association with a well-defined area of low pressure located
well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If these trends
continue, a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
develop later today while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15
mph. A weaker disturbance located just to its southwest is expected
to merge with this system later today. This system is expected to
strengthen as it moves into the central Pacific basin tonight or on
Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or
early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure centered several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development in a few days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward into the central
portion of the East Pacific, well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin/Alaka

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 08:51:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 09:22:53 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 210849 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Satellite images showed Gilma becoming better organized through the night until about 0700 UTC, with the low-level center embedded underneath the deep convection. A 21/0216 SSMIS pass was quite helpful showing a more impressive mid-level structure, with the low-level center likely located about 20 miles to the northwest of the mid-level center. The latest images since 0700 UTC show a dry slot in between the central convective mass and a curved band to the northwest of the center. GOES-West CIRA Proxy-Vis imagery has been hinting that the low-level center may be near the NW edge of the central convective area rather than under the middle of it. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T-4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 61-68 kt. Based on these subjective and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is bumped up to 65 kt, making Gilma the second hurricane of the 2024 East Pacific hurricane season. Gilma has been moving due west over the past 12 h at 270/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should be the primary steering mechanism through the forecast period, taking Gilma on a westward to west-northwestward course. A broad upper-level trough is forecast to move in well north of Gilma Thursday into Friday, which should act to slow Gilma's forward speed a bit. The latest global models indicate that this trough won't have much of an influence on causing Gilma to gain latitude. As a result, the track guidance has continued to shift well to the south, showing a mostly westward track through the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast has been shifted south of the previous official forecast, but still lies closer to the previous official forecast than the latest model consensus. If this trend continues, then subsequent NHC forecasts will need to be adjusted southward. Gilma has been reorganizing structurally as it has gradually to steadily strengthened over the past 24 h. Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable over the next day or so. Gilma should remain over relatively warm SSTs and within a moist enough airmass for the next 24 to 48 h to allow for additional steady intensification, and the forecast peak intensity remains 90 kt. By the weekend, Gilma should encounter gradually cooling sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air, causing the cyclone to gradually weaken. Only minor changes were made to the official intensity forecast. The intensity forecast is slightly above the model consensus during the short term, and near the consensus during the latter portion of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 16.0N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 16.1N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 16.5N 124.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 17.2N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 17.5N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 18.3N 132.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 19.1N 136.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 210847 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 17 42(59) 7(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 125W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 14(20) 4(24) 1(25) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 11(49) 1(50) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 26(47) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 210847 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 ...GILMA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2024 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 122.3W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 122.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...GILMA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2024 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Gilma was located near 16.0, -122.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 210846 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 122.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 120SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 122.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 123.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 110SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 124.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.2N 126.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 128.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.3N 132.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 136.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 122.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

722
ABPZ20 KNHC 210520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined area of
low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
are gradually becoming better organized, and only a slight increase
in organization could result in the formation of a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph. The weaker disturbance located just to its southwest
is expected to dissipate or merge with this system during the next
several hours. This system is expected to strengthen as it moves
across the central Pacific basin late this week and move near the
Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two,
and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters,
well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 02:36:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 03:23:39 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 210234 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Gilma is holding steady this evening. The low-level circulation is still hidden beneath a modest Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Recent satellite microwave imagery showed the deep convection is limited to the southern half of the storm, with a band extending to the southwest of the center. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt in deference to the earlier ASCAT data, slightly above the subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB. A ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is steering the storm at an estimated 275/9 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next day or so. By Thursday, a slight turn poleward and decrease of forward speed is expected as a deep-layer trough moving in from the west erodes the ridge. Once again, the track model guidance has shifted southward this cycle. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged to the south and lies between the previous track forecast and the simple consensus aid TVCE. Gilma seems to be holding its own against the moderate northeasterly wind shear. Global models suggest the upper-level winds should gradually become more favorable over the next day or so, allowing Gilma to reach hurricane status overnight or Wednesday morning. The storm should have the necessary ingredients to steadily strengthen through Thursday, and the forecast peak remains at 90 kt. By the end of the week and into the weekend, Gilma should encounter cooling sea surface temperatures, increasing shear, and dry mid-level humidities causing it to gradually weaken. The latest official forecast is largely an update of the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.1N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 16.2N 122.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 17.0N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 17.8N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 18.2N 128.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 18.8N 131.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 19.6N 135.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 926 WTPZ32 KNHC 210234 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 121.5W ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 121.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gilma could become a hurricane overnight or tomorrow morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GILMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 the center of Gilma was located near 16.1, -121.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 858 FOPZ12 KNHC 210234 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 3 26(29) 14(43) 3(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 11(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 33(37) 27(64) 1(65) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 1(26) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 210233 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 121.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 120SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 121.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 123.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 127.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.2N 128.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 131.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 135.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with two disturbances over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight,
and gradual development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical
depression or tropical storm will likely form during the next day or
so while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is
then expected to strengthen as it moves across the central Pacific
basin late this week and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two,
and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters,
well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 21:01:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 21:23:27 GMT