National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 874 WTPZ32 KNHC 230233 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO FRIDAY BUT MORE WEAKENING LIES AHEAD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 125.5W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1945 MI...3125 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 125.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Gradual acceleration toward the west-northwest and then west is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO FRIDAY BUT MORE WEAKENING LIES AHEAD... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Aug 22 the center of Gilma was located near 17.3, -125.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230232 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 125.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 125.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.6N 126.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.0N 128.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.4N 129.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 131.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 133.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 135.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.8N 139.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.5N 145.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
mostly to the west of its center. Environmental conditions are
generally conducive for development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 20:36:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 21:29:35 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222035 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 Gilma has maintained an impressive satellite appearance, with a clear warm eye surrounded by a ring of -60 to -70 C cold cloud tops. An SSMIS microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed the eyewall remains well organized and mostly closed, with only a limited number of rainbands observed outside of the inner core. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were CI 5.5/102 kt from SAB and 6.0/115 kt from TAFB, while objective intensity estimates largely fell in between these values. Thus, the initial intensity is being held at 110 kt for this advisory. A helpful scatterometer pass was used to help adjust some of the 34-kt and 50-kt radii this advisory. The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward across the central portion of the East Pacific basin, with its estimated motion at 290/6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue over the next several days as Gilma is primarily influenced by a narrow mid-level ridge to its north, though a gradual turn more westward with some increase in forward motion is anticipated by early next week as mid-level ridging builds in a bit more towards the end of the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and a little faster than the prior cycle, and the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction, blending the previous forecast track with the track consensus aids. While I can not rule out a bit of additional intensification in the short-term, the slow motion of Gilma could also make it susceptible to upwelling cooler ocean waters underneath it. However, at the same time, vertical wind shear as diagnosed by the GFS-SHIPS is expected to remain quite low, under 10 kt for at least the next 48-60 h. Some of the regional-hurricane models also suggest that Gilma may take on some annular characteristics, with limited outer bands as the eyewall remains intact, and current satellite imagery suggests that appearance may already be taking shape. Since these storms are known to weaken slower than expected by the cooler sea-surface temperatures underneath, the NHC intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening over the next couple of days, which is higher than the majority of the intensity guidance, aside from the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, westerly shear is forecast to increase as SSTs remain in the 25-26 C range, and a faster rate of weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period, more in line with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 17.0N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 17.4N 126.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 17.7N 127.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 18.1N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 18.7N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 18.9N 134.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 19.5N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 20.0N 143.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 222034 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 33(37) 31(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 57(62) 12(74) 1(75) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 12(38) X(38) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 15(42) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 222034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE GILMA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 125.0W ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1980 MI...3185 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 125.0 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change is strength is expected before the hurricane begins a slow weakening trend into this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...MAJOR HURRICANE GILMA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 22 the center of Gilma was located near 17.0, -125.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 222034 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 126.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 127.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.1N 129.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 132.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 134.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.0N 143.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The Central Pacific
Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression
One-C, located less than one thousand miles east-southeast of Hilo
Hawaii. For information on this system, please see products issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
primarily west of its center. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph over the central portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Information on Tropical Depression One-C can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1 and WMO header WTPA31 PHFO and in
Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1 and WMO header WTPA21 PHFO. Products
will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221507
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Outlook Issued to update information on newly designated
Tropical Depression in the Central Pacific basin.

Active Systems:
Updated: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Hurricane Gilma, located more than one thousand miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The Central
Pacific Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical
Depression One-C as of 5 AM HST. For information on this system,
please see products issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and is
currently producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms primarily west of its center. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph over the central portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Information on Tropical Depression One-C can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1 and WMO header WTPA31 PHFO and in
Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1 and WMO header WTPA21 PHFO. Products
will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 15:03:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 15:29:04 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 221452 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 Gilma has continued to intensify with recent tightening of the eyewall diameter in the last few hours. Concurrently, solid cooling was noted in the surrounding inner ring of convection. This has resulted in an increase in intensity for the Dvorak intensity estimates with TAFB up to a T6.0/6.0 or 115 knots while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS has seen a variation of Raw-T values between 5.5 and 5.8. As such, the intensity has been adjusted slightly upward to 110 knots and brings intensity up to a strong Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A northwest trend in center fixes continues to show slow forward speed at 290/6 knots, though small wobbles have been noted as the eye has been tightening and stronger convergence nodes are noted along the inner eye wall supporting a weak asymmetry to the eye itself. Given weak mid-tropospheric forcing, storm motion will continue to be slow and is expected to turn more westward Friday into Saturday as it nears the 26-27C isotherm. Proximity to the thermal gradient and convective activity will play a role in the longer term forecast as well. Depending on the strength, a faster forward speed was noted through the guidance suite. As such, the official forecast is a bit faster along track though the track remains fairly stable. Given that warmer oceans remain along the track of Gilma, some additional strengthening is expected with the low shear environment. As the cyclone reaches the 26-27C isotherm, gradual weakening is expected, but a slight northward adjustment will result in reduced warm, moist air to maintain its strength and slow weakening is expected after Friday morning. As the storm treads further west, cooler water is likely to increase weakening of the system through the weekend into early next week. As the system weakens and becomes shallower, forward speed will increase and perhaps further compound the weakening process a bit faster than prior forecast; however, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the model guidance suite to better maintain continuity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 16.9N 124.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.5N 126.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 17.8N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 18.1N 129.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.4N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.8N 137.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 19.1N 141.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Gallina

...GILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 22 the center of Gilma was located near 16.9, -124.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 221451 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT.......115NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 95SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 126.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.8N 128.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.1N 129.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.4N 133.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 137.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 141.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER GALLINA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91/CP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization with an area of low pressure located well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Only a slight improvement in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression
or tropical storm later today while it moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph. This system is currently crossing into the Central
Pacific basin, where it is then forecast to strengthen during the
next couple of days and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week. For marine forecasts, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too soon to determine the exact location and magnitude of
potential impacts. Now that the system is moving into the Central
Pacific basin, all future information on this system will be found
in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific Basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and is
currently producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms primarily west of its center. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph over the central portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 08:38:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 09:22:56 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Gilma has continued to intensify while exhibiting a well-defined eye on geostationary satellite imagery, and convective cloud tops colder than -70 deg C are evident around the eyewall. The cloud pattern is fairly symmetric in appearance, and upper-level outflow is well defined over all quadrants of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is raised to 100 kt based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and various objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. This makes Gilma the first major hurricane of the 2024 east Pacific season. Center fixes show a fairly slow forward speed toward the west-northwest, with an initial motion estimate of 290/5 kt. A mid-tropospheric trough near the California coast has broken down the subtropical ridge to the north of Gilma, resulting in a weaker than normal steering current. Over the next several days, the ridge is expected to build back rather slowly, resulting in only a gradual increase in the tropical cyclone's forward speed over the forecast period. The official track forecast is about the same as the one from the previous NHC advisory, and is near the southern side of the model suite. Some additional strengthening is expected, since the system has a well-defined inner core and is in an environment of low shear while situated over warm waters. The short-term intensity forecast reflects current trends and is in line with much of the regional dynamical hurricane model guidance. In the next day or two, the SSTs below Gilma are expected to gradually decrease. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone will be moving into a drier and more stable air mass. These factors should cause slow weakening, and the official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Overall, the NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 16.6N 124.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.2N 126.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 17.5N 127.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 17.8N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 18.3N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 18.6N 136.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220836 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 31 4(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 27(35) 18(53) 2(55) X(55) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 35(56) 3(59) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH