National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190848 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 128.2W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 128.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected tonight through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may re-gain hurricane strength by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 15.9, -128.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190843 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that the center of Lorena is either inland or hugging the coast. A large portion of the eastern semicircle is interacting with the high terrain. Given the microwave presentation showing a small mid-level eye a few hours ago, and the fact that Dvorak numbers have not changed much, the initial intensity has been kept generously at 65 kt in this advisory. However, Lorena is a very small cyclone and these winds are limited to a very small area near the center. Since a large portion of the cyclone is over land, some weakening is anticipated during the next 12 hours. However, once the center reaches the warmer waters between Cabo Corrientes and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, strengthening is indicated. After 2 or 3 days, the environment will be less favorable and weakening should commence. By then, Lorena should be over water or very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. One complicating factor which makes this forecast highly uncertain is the possibility that Lorena interacts with the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario which is located not too far to the southwest. Some global models combined the circulations of the two cyclones into one. At this time, the NHC forecast assumes that Lorena will continue as a separate system through five days. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northwest or 330 degrees at 7 knots. The cyclone is being steered by a persistent subtropical high over Mexico, but the easterly flow around Mario should force Lorena on a more west-northwest track. Beyond 3 days, track models diverge significantly, with some bringing the cyclone west of the peninsula and others to the east. The NHC forecast follows the previous one, and brings Lorena as a weakening cyclone along the west coast of the peninsula. This forecast is highly uncertain at this time. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will be moving over or close to the coast of southwestern Mexico today. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to protect life in property should have been completed. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is highly uncertain due to the potential for the land interaction currently occuring. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190842 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 2(19) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 48(70) 9(79) 1(80) X(80) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 9(51) 1(52) X(52) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 21(31) 4(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 1(17) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 6 69(75) 8(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 37(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 46 6(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) P VALLARTA 50 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 18(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 105.0W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 105.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area today and move back over water later today or Friday. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west-central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water again in 12 to 24 hours, re-strengthening is anticipated. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within portions of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur today within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 19.6, -105.0 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190841 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.0W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 105.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190540 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 104.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- With the help of Mexican Navy automatic weather stations, at 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 104.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is expected to decrease a bit on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Thursday. Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, if the center deviates a little to the right and interacts with the high terrain, weakening could then occur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located near Manzanillo reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) when the center of Lorena moved nearby. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur on Thursday within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 19.3, -104.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 05:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:58:26 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Hurricane Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific is producing limited and
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while the system
moves little. Thereafter, the system is expected to be absorbed by
the circulation of Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:54:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:51:50 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190253 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Mario's convection had mostly collapsed around the time of the previous advisory. However, a 1911 UTC GPM microwave pass indicated that the storm still had a tight circulation with a well-defined center, and a new burst of convection began around 2300 UTC. There is a wide range of intensity estimates with 45 kt from TAFB at the low end and 65 kt from the UW-CIMSS at the high end. Given this large spread, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt in the middle of the range. Mario's future still depends on Lorena. At the moment, the storm is moving northwestward, or 320/9 kt. The track models continue to show varying degrees of interaction between Mario and Lorena. On the one hand, the GFS and HWRF models show the smaller Mario becoming enveloped into Lorena's larger circulation, making a backwards-S track as it moves generally northward. On the other hand, since the ECMWF dissipates Lorena inland over Mexico, it allows Mario to move northward or northwestward unabated with not much wiggle in its track. Visible satellite images showed quite a bit of southwesterly flow feeding from near Mario toward Lorena, which leads me to believe that there will at least be some interaction between the two cyclones. Given that, the NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward a bit, but not as far to the east as some of the consensus aids or the HCCA model. Intensity-wise, it appears that Mario will get into a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24-36 hours, which should foster some strengthening. Mario is forecast to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and this scenario lies between the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA model. Weakening is likely to occur after 48 hours due to an increase in easterly shear, lower oceanic heat content, and possible interaction with Lorena. Because of this possible interaction, confidence in both the NHC track and intensity forecasts is lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 780 FOPZ14 KNHC 190252 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 11(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 23(53) 11(64) X(64) X(64) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 11(26) 4(30) 1(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 20(26) 10(36) 2(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190252 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 112.2W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 112.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a slower forward speed is expected Thursday through Friday night, followed by a turn back to the northwest this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Mario is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 15.4, -112.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190252 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:46:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:58:26 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190244 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Earlier microwave imagery showed that Lorena's structure has continued to improve, with a well-defined low-level ring noted in the 37-GHz channel. The convective signature in infrared satellite imagery is somewhat ragged, although it appears that a warm spot may be developing near the estimated center. Objective SATCON and ADT intensity estimates are 66 kt and 75 kt, respectively, which is higher than the 55-kt subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. However, given the improved microwave pattern, the initial intensity hedges toward the objective numbers, making Lorena a 65-kt hurricane. Both the track and intensity forecast hinge on whether Lorena survives its fly-by of the coast of Mexico. If the center stays just offshore, which several of the models show, then a strengthening ridge over northern Mexico should steer the cyclone northwestward and west-northwestward away from west-central Mexico after 24 hours, heading in the general direction of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The ECMWF is the only model at the moment that shows Lorena's center moving inland, or interacting with the high terrain enough, to dissipate within the next 12-24 hours. All that being said, the NHC track forecast assumes that Lorena will survive the next 24 hours, and it has been nudged southwestward beyond 36 hours, close to the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Based on this track, environmental conditions appear favorable for further strengthening during the next couple of days. Weakening should commence by day 3 once the system encounters areas of higher shear and significantly lower oceanic heat content values. As already insinuated above, due the potential for land interaction within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will be dangerously close to the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and on Thursday. A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to protect life in property should have been completed. 2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight and Thursday. Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg