National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2022 14:37:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Estelle remains a well-organized hurricane this morning. There are very cold cloud tops over the core that range between -70 to -80 degrees Celsius, numerous and distinct banding features, and a rather symmetric and pronounced upper-level outflow. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB estimated Estelle at 65 and 77 kt, respectively, and given the slightly improved satellite presentation, the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt. Low to moderate vertical wind shear, high low-to-mid-tropospheric humidities, and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to prevail through tomorrow. This should allow for further intensification. The official forecast is above the explicit model predictions through 48 hours since there is potential for rapid intensification according to the statistical guidance. Beyond two days, the NHC intensity forecast follows the model consensus and weakens Estelle as it encounters a more hostile thermodynamic and oceanic environment. The system is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 295/10 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast, and should continue to head in the same general direction for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, when the storm weakens, the cyclone should turn westward and follow the shallow low-level flow. The official forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 171435 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 15(15) 12(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 51(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 28(32) 6(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 65(68) 5(73) 1(74) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 5(38) X(38) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 3(29) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 171435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 107.1W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.1 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Estelle could become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula later today and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 the center of Estelle was located near 15.7, -107.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 171435 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Jul 2022 14:50:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Jul 2022 15:28:40 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 113 WTPZ41 KNHC 161448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Estelle has continued to strengthen this morning. Earlier passive microwave imagery indicated the vortex was slightly tilted in the vertical, likely due to 10-15 kt of deep-layer northeasterly shear over the small cyclone. The mid-level eye feature was still open on the upshear side, but recent satellite trends show an expanding central dense overcast with -75 to -80 deg C cloud tops spreading over its center. The 12 UTC objective and subjective satellite estimates were all at 55 kt, but given the recent improved satellite presentation and an uptick in the ADT estimates, the advisory intensity is set at 60 kt. Further strengthening is expected as Estelle moves within a moist and unstable environment over very warm SSTs. Of course, this assumes that Estelle is able to close off its inner core to help resist the negative effects of continued moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer shear. The latest intensity guidance unanimously supports at least steady strengthening over the next 24-36 h, and SHIPS/LGEM favor rapid intensification (RI) with some indications that the shear could weaken a bit later today. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and explicitly forecasts RI, generally between the multi-model consensus and the most aggressive SHIPS/LGEM aids. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Later next week, increasing shear and decreasing SSTs along its track should lead to a weakening trend on days 3-5. Estelle is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge entrenched over the southwestern U.S. should keep steering Estelle west-northwestward during the next several days. There is increased spread in the track guidance on days 3-5, with the GFS on the far northern edge of the guidance envelope and the ECWMF and UKMET faster and much farther south. The NHC track forecast is nudged just a bit south of the previous one in the extended range, but still lies slightly to the north of the TVCE and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 14.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 905 FOPZ11 KNHC 161447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 91 6(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 105W 50 29 39(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 105W 64 10 31(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 29(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 18(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 70(73) 8(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 8(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) X(31) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 3(28) X(28) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 9(42) 1(43) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 12(69) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161447 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...ESTELLE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 103.7W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 103.7 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and continued strengthening is expected during the next day or two. Estelle is likely to become a hurricane later today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are beginning to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ESTELLE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 the center of Estelle was located near 14.0, -103.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six-E, located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jul 2022 14:40:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jul 2022 15:28:39 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Conventional satellite data and passive microwave imagery indicate that the low pressure system NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has become better defined this morning. The associated convection has been persistent and is presently organized into a couple of fragmented curved bands that wrap around the northern and western portions of its circulation. The system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that the system will maintain this general heading and speed during the next couple of days while moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone early next week, which should keep it on a west-northwestward heading with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5. The official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the TVCE consensus aid. The current track and wind radii forecasts keep tropical-storm-force winds well offshore of southwestern Mexico, so no coastal watches or warnings are necessary at this time. The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening, and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h). The official NHC track forecast is fairly aggressive and lies on the higher side of the guidance, generally between the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday and continue strengthening through early next week. By the end of the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 12.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X 5( 5) 52(57) 17(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 47(52) 4(56) X(56) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) X(20) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 24(50) X(50) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 60(62) 9(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 9(38) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 11(43) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151437 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 100.8W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system could become a hurricane by late this weekend or early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 the center of Six-E was located near 12.0, -100.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.