National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190243 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 29(37) 30(67) 2(69) 1(70) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 23(37) 1(38) X(38) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 4(22) X(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 54(56) 19(75) 3(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 14(14) 17(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 20 26(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 52 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 50 43 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 15(18) 27(45) 13(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 6(30) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190243 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLIMA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 104.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is expected to decrease a bit on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to occur later tonight and on Thursday within the hurricane warning area. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLIMA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 18.7, -104.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190242 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 80SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 104.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:32:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:32:06 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko's appearance has not changed substantially during the past 6 hours. Although the wind shear is very light, at least some dry air appears be getting into the inner core of the tropical storm, limiting Kiko's deep convection. The intensity remains 55 kt based on the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates. Both dynamical intensity models (HWRF and HMON) show that Kiko will eventually reform an inner convective core and strengthen, but do so several days apart. It seems likely, given the light shear and warm SSTs beneath the tropical storm, that Kiko will restrengthen at some point. That said, determining the exact timing is probably beyond our current ability to forecast tropical cyclone intensity. The NHC intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next several days, as shown by HCCA, but I would not be surprised if Kiko is nearly steady-state for a day or two, and then strengthens at a faster rate than expected. Confidence in the intensity forecast is therefore somewhat low. The initial motion is now 265/5 kt. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. Oscillations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north Kiko should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in a day or so, and then back toward the west another day after that. After Kiko reaches the crest of its curvy path, it is expected to turn southwestward yet again by the weekend. The model guidance is in remarkably good agreement for such an unusual track and the NHC forecast remains near the multi-model consensus, with a little extra emphasis placed on the ECMWF which has thus far handled the forecast of Kiko quite well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.8N 127.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 1 13(14) 15(29) 4(33) 8(41) 3(44) 1(45) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 3(23) X(23) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 39(47) 17(64) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190230 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...KIKO HEADING WEST ONCE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 127.8W ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward track is expected through this evening followed by a west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Thursday and Friday. Kiko is then forecast to turn westward yet again by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane again on Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO HEADING WEST ONCE AGAIN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 15.8, -127.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 182351 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA'S CENTER OBLIQUELY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND SOUTHERN JALISCO... ...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 104.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Watches may be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane as it nears the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional strengthening is possible when Lorena moves west of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely spreading onshore within the warning area. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin later tonight within the hurricane warning area and will spread northwestward along the coast on Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENA'S CENTER OBLIQUELY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND SOUTHERN JALISCO... ...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 18.3, -104.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:51:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:58:33 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Lorena, located just south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific is producing a few disorganized
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or two while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:52:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:52:02 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:51:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:45:28 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 182051 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 17(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 17(26) 16(42) 13(55) 1(56) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 1(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 17(26) 25(51) 2(53) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182051 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ASCAT data, including from the new ASCAT-C instrument, was very helpful in analyzing the location, size, and intensity of Mario this afternoon. The tropical storm has contracted substantially, and earlier microwave data suggested that it had developed a mid-level eye-like feature. Since that time, it appears that moderate easterly wind shear, associated at least in part with outflow with Mario's larger sibling (Lorena) to the east, has prevented the tropical storm from strengthening at a faster rate. The intensity is nonetheless increased to 55 kt, and this could be conservative given that the ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 50-55 kt. The track and intensity of Mario will depend largely on what happens with Lorena. If Lorena moves inland and weakens, Mario will likely be located within a very favorable environment for intensification. However, if Lorena stays offshore and strengthens (like shown in the latest NHC forecast), it will likely continue to negatively affect Mario for the next several days. Lorena's forecast may become more clear later tonight, but until then the Mario intensity forecast is, and will likely continue to be, highly uncertain. The NHC forecast is slightly above the intensity consensus, but is still well within the intensity model spread. Mario continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. Most of the global models forecast that Mario will meander generally northward to northwestward for the next couple of days toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. After that, if Lorena survives its brush with Mexico and strengthens near the Baja California peninsula, there is a chance that Mario could turn abruptly eastward as it interacts with the other cyclone. That said, most of the global models show no such interaction occuring, and instead show Mario continuing broadly northward through day 5. The NHC forecast follows the bulk of the guidance northward for now, but it should be noted that uncertainty in the track forecast is still high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182050 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO SHRINKS BUT WINDS INCREASE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 111.8W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 111.8 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed by tomorrow. Mario is forecast to then slow down and meander slowly northward on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky