National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 081433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 ...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 120.4W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 120.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A general westward motion is expected during the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed Sunday through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength later today and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 the center of Bonnie was located near 18.3, -120.4 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081433 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form well southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week
while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

South of Central America:
A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week south of
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system next week
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071436 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 The overall satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much this morning. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a well-defined low-level eye, but the deep convection was fragmented over the southwestern portion of the circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which supports maintaining an intensity of 80 kt. Bonnie will be crossing the 26C isotherm later today, and into a drier and more stable environment over the next 24-48 hours. These factors should result in steady to rapid weakening beginning later today or tonight. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Bonnie will cease to produce deep convection in 48-60 h, and the official forecast calls for Bonnie to become a remnant low by late Saturday. Additional spin down is expected after that time, and the system should degenerate into a trough of low pressure shortly after day 3. Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the storm westward to west-northwestward. As Bonnie weakens it is expected to accelerate more westward as it comes under the influence of the stronger low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.3N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071436 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA CLARION 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 10(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 ...BONNIE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 113.7W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 113.7 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength by Friday and become a post- tropical cyclone by late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...BONNIE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 the center of Bonnie was located near 17.3, -113.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071435 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southeastern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southeastern coast of Mexico is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast
of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 14:52:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 15:22:39 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 751 WTPZ44 KNHC 061449 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 There's been quite a bit of improvement this morning in Bonnie's inner core structure and a cloud-filled eye reappeared in first light visible imagery. A 1216 UTC SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a partial eyewall with about 70 percent coverage in the north through southwest quadrants and recent enhanced infrared images show Bonnie attempting to close off a white ring with -77C cloud top temperatures. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this advisory, in accordance with the subjective satellite intensity estimates. Bonnie's surface wind profile has been reduced in all quadrants based on a 0448 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass and subsequently has been adjusted downward in the forecast. The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to make a comeback. This sudden intensification is expected to be temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface temperatures. Dry, stable environmental conditions will also contribute to its eventual dissipation by late this weekend. The NHC forecast is again adjusted downward from the previous one and is based mainly on the global models and the IVCN intensity aid. Bonnie should degenerate to a remnant low in 4 days, if not earlier, and open into a trough of low pressure early next week. Bonnie's moving westward, or 280/10 kt within the westerly mid-level steering flow of a subtropical ridge to the north. There are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. The cyclone should continue on a westward to west-northwestward fashion with an increase in forward speed commencing Thursday. The official forecast is essentially the same as last night's advisory and agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus. Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.1N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 101 FOPZ14 KNHC 061447 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 1 9(10) 51(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 496 WTPZ34 KNHC 061446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 ...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 109.0W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bonnie is moving a little slower toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in strength are possible today. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence later tonight continue through Saturday. Bonnie is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 the center of Bonnie was located near 16.1, -109.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061444 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico toward the end of the week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this system over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2022 14:38:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2022 15:22:52 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051437 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band features in the west and south parts of the cyclone. The surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone, and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours. Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in 12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement. Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment. A combination of these negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly weaken through the remainder of the period and the official forecast follows suit. Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the entire forecast period. Around mid-period, however, a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed. The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts