National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 27 Jun 2022 14:36:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Jun 2022 15:22:56 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022 ...CELIA SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 116.9W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 116.9 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected, and Celia should become a post-tropical remnant low within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CELIA SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 the center of Celia was located near 20.8, -116.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271434 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC MON JUN 27 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 116.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

265
ABPZ20 KNHC 271122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts
of Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some gradual development of this disturbance during the next
several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Jun 2022 14:40:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Jun 2022 15:23:25 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 This morning's satellite presentation shows very little change in Celia's cloud pattern. However, the cloud tops associated with the deep convection are beginning to warm. The latest AMSR2 microwave revealed a symmetric cyclone with an eye-like feature in the low-frequency band. Therefore, the initial intensity is conservatively held at 45 kt and is supported by a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Celia should gradually weaken while it moves into a stable and dry surrounding atmosphere, and over cooler oceanic surface temperatures. Accordingly, Celia is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Monday and dissipate toward the end of the week, and this scenario is in agreement with the latest statistical and dynamical intensity guidance. Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/6 kt, just a little bit to the left of the previous advisory motion. The forecast track philosophy remains the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern North Pacific should steer the cyclone on a continued west-northwestward course through the forecast period. The official NHC forecast is based on the various tightly clustered consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 261433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 115W 34 49 23(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 115W 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 ...CELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 113.7W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 113.7 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 the center of Celia was located near 19.1, -113.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 26 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 118.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system thereafter as it moves generally westward-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 251451 CCA TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 36...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Corrected for missing central pressure statement ...CELIA'S CENTER APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND... ...GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 110.8W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 110.8 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, and Celia is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. An automated Mexican navy weather station on Socorro Island recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA'S CENTER APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND... ...GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 the center of Celia was located near 18.5, -110.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Celia's convective organization is slightly better this morning, with a broken ring of cold cloud tops noted in infrared imagery. However, a recent SSMIS microwave pass shows that the near-core convection is limited to the southwest of the center. The storm has extensive convective banding within the eastern and southeastern parts of the circulation. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Celia took a temporary turn toward the northwest overnight, but the motion appears to have settled out to west-northwestward, or 300/6 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north is expected to keep Celia on a west-northwestward motion for the next 4 days or so, with a gradual increase in forward speed. As a weaker, shallower system, the remnant low should turn westward by day 5. The GFS is a little slower than the other models, but otherwise the model guidance is tightly packed. Therefore, no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Even though deep-layer shear is now low, the thermodynamic environment has kept the storm from strengthening over the past day or so. Celia's center is now over 26 degrees Celsius water and heading toward even colder waters, and therefore gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Celia is likely to cease producing organized deep convection and thus become a post-tropical low by day 3. The updated intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 251438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 4 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 1 16(17) 20(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 11(12) 49(61) 7(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 251438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

464
ABPZ20 KNHC 251131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jun 2022 14:40:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jun 2022 15:23:01 GMT