National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180246 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 109.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180246 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 109.3W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 109.3 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days, with Mario becoming nearly stationary by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Mario is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Mario was located near 13.2, -109.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 23:43:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 00:42:01 GMT

Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172342 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 101.6W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 101.6 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move over or very near the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 14.8, -101.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, on Tropical Storm
Mario, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Lorena,
located a couple of hundred miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

An elongated trough of low pressure lying near the coast of
southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador is producing a
large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends
several hundred miles southward over the Pacific waters. Gradual
development of this system is anticipated during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while
moving westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

Public Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:43:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:43:27 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172041 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 A pair of ASCAT passes sampled the circulation of Lorena earlier this afternoon and showed multiple 40-45 kt wind vectors. Based on that data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for this advisory. Lorena's cloud structure has improved somewhat during the afternoon, though Dvorak-based wind estimates are still notably lower than the ASCAT winds. The track models have come into much better agreement, and there has been a large shift eastward in the track guidance. However, since the NHC track forecast was previously on the east side of the guidance envelope, only a slight eastward shift was made to the official forecast. Lorena is still expected to move generally northwestward for the next day or two, and should move over or very near the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday or early Thursday. If the circulation survives its interaction with land, it should continue to head northwestward, perhaps toward the Baja California peninsula. That said, this portion of the forecast is highly conditional, and Lorena may end up just dissipating over the high terrain of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is now very close to TVCN and HCCA, especially through 72 h, and confidence in the track forecast has increased. The tropical storm has strengthened, and conditions appear favorable for additional slow strengthening. Once the circulation approaches the coast of Mexico, its intensity will become closely tied to its track. If Lorena moves inland, it will likely weaken quickly and could dissipate entirely shortly thereafter. If it stays offshore, it could maintain its strength and even intensify further as it moves away from the coast of Mexico later this week, as shown by the HWRF, DSHP, and LGEM models. The NHC intensity forecast is consistent with the track forecast, and therefore shows Lorena weakening due to land interaction after 48 h, but is below the intensity consensus since a number of those models keep the cyclone farther from the coast. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 14.6N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 172040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 4(19) X(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 9(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 1 29(30) 4(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 101.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 101.3 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move over or very near the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday and could then spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...LORENA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Lorena was located near 14.6, -101.3 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 172040 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:27 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:23 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 172038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 3 36(39) 4(43) 2(45) 3(48) 2(50) X(50) 15N 110W 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 8(18) 4(22) 1(23) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 27(46) 12(58) 5(63) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) 4(23) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 14(24) 17(41) 10(51) 4(55) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 10(26) 7(33) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western semicircle. While the subjective estimates are unchanged from earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the increased convective organization trend on satellites. Thus the initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory. Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. A slow west-northwest track is forecast at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm Lorena. With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear, warm-water environment. Interestingly, the guidance is actually lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection has been struggling near the center of Kiko today, with only some re-development near the core of the cyclone during the past couple of hours. There's a pretty big disparity in the initial wind speed estimates this afternoon. Recent ASCAT data supports 40-45 kt, while other estimates are still near hurricane- force. Weighing the scatterometer data heavier than most gives an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Kiko is on track toward the west-southwest, steered by a ridge extending from the central Pacific. The forecast continues to shift to the south with time, with a stronger ridge anticipated, and the model guidance is more consistent in showing two west- southwestward dips, one at the current time and one after day 5. The new NHC track prediction is somewhat south of the previous one, but this time it is fairly close to the model consensus, hopefully indicating that the southward shifts are done for the time being. While the current shear near Kiko should relax later today, it could take some time before the storm can recover from the effects of the shear. Kiko will probably to re-strengthen in a day or so, in part due to the cyclone moving over warmer waters in a low-shear environment. Afterward, there is very little agreement on the long-range upper-level wind forecast, leading to wildly divergent intensity forecasts by day 5 in the models, ranging from a tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane. For now since the track forecast brings Kiko again over warmer waters, a slight increase in wind speed is shown, and this could be conservative at the end of the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.8N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 172037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 172037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...MARIO FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO, FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 108.7W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 108.7 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is anticipated for the next couple of days, with a turn to the west-northwest forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake