National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 111448 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.4W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.4W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...DARBY STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH 125 MPH WINDS... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 11 the center of Darby was located near 14.6, -123.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter, and this system could become a tropical depression by
late this week. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2022 14:46:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 Darby has become better organized this morning. A 0916 UTC AMSR2 and more recent 1216 UTC SSMIS microwave pass have revealed increased banding over the eastern semicircle of the storm and an improved low-level inner core structure. Early-light visible satellite imagery also shows an increase in banding and the development of a small CDO feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have responded accordingly and are now up to 45 and 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt for this advisory. There still appears to be some entrainment of drier mid-level air over the northwestern portion of the circulation, but with low environmental shear and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) ahead, Darby should be able to strengthen over the next 36-48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening during the first day or so, primarily due to the higher initial intensity. The new forecast calls for Darby to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and then peak in intensity in a couple of days. After that time, gradually decreasing SSTs and a more stable environment should lead to steady weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC wind speed forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the first 24-48 hours and is in best agreement with the European-based SHIPS model. Thereafter, it is close to the various consensus aids. Darby continues to move westward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should continue on a westward motion to the south of a mid-level ridge extending westward from the northern portion of Baja California. In a few days the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken which should cause Darby to turn west-northwestward. The track guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, though the UKMET model depicts a much weaker Darby and shows a faster westward motion. The NHC forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which is a little slower than the consensus aids due to the contribution from the much faster UKMET model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.3N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101444 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 34 25(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 66(68) 17(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 24(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 67(76) 1(77) X(77) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101444 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 ...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 117.6W ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 117.6 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Darby is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Jul 10 the center of Darby was located near 14.3, -117.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 101444 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 117.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 117.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Darby, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Darby are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Darby are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091444 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 The last few deep convective cloud tops below -50C dissipated with Bonnie at around 0600 UTC last night. In the absence of any deeper convection since then, Bonnie's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is fleeting. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt in this advisory. The initial motion continues just north of due west at 280/18 kt. As Bonnie continues weakening, it will be increasingly steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow. The latest track forecast is largely an update of the previous one but just a bit faster, remaining close to the center of the track guidance envelope. Bonnie is now over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures and embedded in a very dry, stable atmospheric environment. These factors are expected to prevent additional deep convective activity over the system. If deeper convection does not return soon near the center, Bonnie could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as this afternoon. This expectation is reflected in the latest forecast with Bonnie becoming a remnant low in 12 h, with the closed circulation opening up into a trough in 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 19.5N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Jul 2022 14:43:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Jul 2022 15:22:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 ...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 127.7W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 127.7 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Bonnie dissipates early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bonnie should become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The post-tropical low should dissipate by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 9 the center of Bonnie was located near 19.5, -127.7 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091441 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 127.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

667
ABPZ20 KNHC 091150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Recent satellite imagery indicates that the coverage and
organization of shower and thunderstorm activity has increased
significantly overnight in association with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
central part of the eastern North Pacific basin today or tomorrow
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

West of Central America:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form west of the coast of
Central America by early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system
next week while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2022 14:36:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2022 15:22:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081434 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Deep convection continues to quickly decrease near Bonnie, with a small area remaining near and north of the surface center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are falling, and a blend of 4 0935 UTC microwave SATCON intensity values supports an initial intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Bonnie's moving over 25 deg C water with cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a drier, stable air mass along the forecast path of the cyclone. Therefore, further weakening is likely with a loss of organized convection, and post-tropical status is predicted in 36 hours, possibly less. As shown in the global models and the NHC intensity forecast, Bonnie should degenerate into a trough in 4 days. The initial motion is due west, or 280/17 kt. Low- to mid-tropospheric easterly flow should steer the cyclone on a continued westward heading with a slight decrease in forward speed early Sunday. The model guidance remains in good agreement with the future track of Bonnie through the period, and no appreciable changes were made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.3N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 081433 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 35(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 125W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS