National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 261451 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 Satellite imagery this morning depicts a sheared bursting pattern associated with the tropical cyclone. An overnight convective burst obscured the low-level circulation center, but first-light visible imagery now shows the vortex mostly exposed east of the colder convective cloud tops. This structure can also be seen from the last couple SSMIS microwave passes near the center and is characteristic of environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) diagnosed between 15-20 knots from the northeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35-kt and T2.0/30-kt respectively, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was at T2.5/35-kt. The initial intensity has been raised to 35-kt this advisory, upgrading the tropical depression to tropical storm Frank. Northeasterly VWS between 15-20 kt is expected to continue over the next 48 hours, and will likely limit significant intensification in the short-term as the shear promotes misalignment between the low-level and mid-level centers. The latest intensity forecast only shows slow intensification in the short-term. Afterwards, this shear is expected to decrease, while the storm will remain over warm sea-surface temperatures near 29C through 96 hours. However, the current shear may also help broaden Frank's wind field as convection is favored outside of the radius of maximum wind, as suggested by the latest ECMWF run. These structural changes could limit more robust intensification later in the forecast despite the more favorable environment. For now, the latest NHC forecast still peaks Frank as a category 1 hurricane towards end of the forecast period. This forecast is on the lower end of the intensity guidance envelope, close to the LGEM model, and is somewhat lower than the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN. The tropical storm is moving generally westward at 280/9-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement that this motion and heading will continue as a mid-level ridge extends westward to the north of Frank over the next 2-3 days. Towards the end of the forecast, the ridge overhead will begin to gradually weaken, and will likely allow a larger Frank to begin gaining more latitude. One complicating factor in the track forecast is the possibility of some weak binary interaction with another low-level circulation located to Frank's northwest, where the net interaction may help impart a bit more northerly heading to Frank's track between 72-96 hours. For now, the track forecast continues to favor a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast (GFEX) and is quite close to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 11.6N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 11.9N 104.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 12.2N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 12.6N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 12.9N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 13.6N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 15.0N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 17.5N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Jul 2022 14:46:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Jul 2022 15:22:31 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 261446 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 47(62) 4(66) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 261446 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 102.4W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 102.4 West. Frank is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 the center of Frank was located near 11.6, -102.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 261445 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 26 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 102.4W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 102.4W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 11.9N 104.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.2N 107.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.9N 111.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.6N 113.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 15.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Recent satellite-derived wind
data also indicates the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression over the next day or so. This low pressure area is
forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted with a small area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Some slight additional development with this
system is possible over the next day or two before it is forecast to
interact and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system located to
its east later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southeastern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are starting to show signs of organization
associated with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
south off the coast of southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression by the middle part of this week.
This system is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining well south of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system over the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week.
The disturbance is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to
15 mph remaining well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
surface trough centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Development, if any, of this system is expected
to be slow to occur as the trough moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend
several hundred miles south of extreme southeastern Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter through
midweek while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Estelle, located well to the west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles offshore of southern Mexico is associated with
a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is
possible by this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2022 14:41:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2022 15:22:58 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211441 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Estelle Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Estelle has diminished to a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level clouds with very little organized deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT agree that the surface wind speeds are now around 30 kt. Based on these estimates, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression. Estelle should remain over cold water and continue to weaken. Unless there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection, the system is likely to be designated as a post-tropical cyclone later today. Estelle continues to move west-northwestward at 11 kt while being steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected until the system opens up into a trough in a couple of days. The official forecast is shifted slightly north of the previous prediction and is in line with the new track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 22.7N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 211440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 211440 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 211440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Estelle Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 ...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 125.5W ABOUT 995 MI...1595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Estelle was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Estelle is expected to weaken further and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 the center of Estelle was located near 22.7, -125.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located several hundred miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
offshore of southern Mexico in several days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible by this weekend while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2022 14:38:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2022 15:21:05 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201438 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation. A microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the storm passes over increasingly cooler waters. Estelle is predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day. The official intensity prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no major changes from the previous advisory forecast. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward speed is likely to continue through 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci