National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression
Georgette, located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of eastern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible later this week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Well southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form a several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
by midweek. Some development of this system is possible by
late this week while the system moves westward over the open waters
of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2022 14:36:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2022 15:22:38 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 011436 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Deep convection associated with Frank has continued to slowly decrease in depth and coverage while the storm moves over cooler waters. As a result, Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which is a blend of those estimates, and the assumption weakening has occurred since the time of the overnight scatterometer overpasses. Frank will be moving over SSTs of 21 to 22 Celsius during the next day or so, and this should result in a continued steady decrease in intensity. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Frank will cease to produce deep convection by 36 hours, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by that time. The remnant low is expected to dissipate within 3 to 4 days. Frank continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours, when the system weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn generally northward with the low-level flow. The NHC track prediction is close to the latest consensus aids, which is slightly left of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 22.4N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 011435 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 7 36(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 25N 125W 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 011435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 ...FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 122.6W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 122.6 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday night. A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Frank should become a post-tropical cyclone by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 1 the center of Frank was located near 22.4, -122.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 011435 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2022 14:33:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2022 15:28:34 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Georgette continues to be characterized by pulsating and somewhat disorganized deep convection near it's center of circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from T-1.0 to T-2.5, and a blend of these values suggests that the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is beginning its turn toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the current motion is north-northwest at 3 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue for a couple of days. The ridge is forecast to strengthen by late this week, which should cause Georgette to turn westward along with an increase in forward speed. Overall, the track model guidance has become a little more clustered than previous cycles, and there has been a slight shift to the right in the guidance through 72 h. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast was adjusted a little right of the previous one through that time period, but remains a little to the left of the consensus. Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and within a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass. By 60 h, the cyclone should move over waters of 25-26 degrees C. These conditions are expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone and cause it to degenerate into a remnant low toward the latter part of the week. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 17.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 16.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 15.8N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 011432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 16(18) 9(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 ...GEORGETTE NOW HEADING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 130.4W ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Georgette was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 130.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected starting tonight, and this motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...GEORGETTE NOW HEADING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 1 the center of Georgette was located near 13.4, -130.4 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 011432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.4W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.4W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 130.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 129.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.4N 129.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 129.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.6N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311705
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Frank, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located well over a thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 14:40:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 15:22:36 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 311439 TCDEP2 Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 An 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed the fragments of a small inner eye and a much larger 60 to 75 n-mi-wide eye. Since that time, the cloud tops have generally warmed with a small CDO feature remaining. Frank's outflow is still well established owing to the low vertical wind shear conditions. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range between 65 and 77 kt, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. Frank has crossed the 26 degree Celsius isotherm and will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next few days. In addition, the storm will be entering a drier and more stable environment. Thus, steady weakening is expected, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 72 hours, and dissipate by the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids closely and is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Frank is moving northwestward or 315/10 kt. The cyclone should move on a general northwestward track over the next couple of days around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a weaker and more shallow system is predicted to decelerate and turn north-northwest to northward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest consensus models and is very close to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 19.3N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 14:38:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2022 15:28:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 311438 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 120W 64 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 25N 120W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 15(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 311437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 119.3W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 119.3 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days as the cyclone moves over cooler waters, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 the center of Frank was located near 19.3, -119.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.