National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081438 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Compared to yesterday at this time, Howard has become a much better organized tropical cyclone. After the previous advisory, we received an AMSR-2 microwave pass valid at 0844 UTC, which showed a nearly closed cyan ring at 36 GHz, suggesting a low-level eye feature had developed. More recently, 1-minute GOES-18 interleave satellite imagery is occasionally depicting a banding-type eye signature with colder cloud tops beginning to wrap around this feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T3.5/55 kt at 1200 UTC, which supports raising the intensity to 55 kt this advisory. Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track guidance remains is good agreement that this northwestward motion will continue for the next 24 hours as Howard remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Starting tomorrow, the storm should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance has shifted ever so slightly north of the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC track was nudged in that direction, remaining close to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Howard has another 12-18 hours over greater than 26 C sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a low shear environment. Given the improvement in the inner core structure and higher initial intensity, the latest NHC forecast was raised quite a bit from the previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a hurricane later today. After 24 hours, the storm will be moving over rapidly cooling SSTs as the atmospheric environment becomes more stable with shear also increasing. Thus, steady weakening is expected and the latest intensity forecast still makes Howard post-tropical in 60 hours. This forecast is higher than the intensity guidance over the first day, but falls back in line with the consensus aids after that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 20.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2022 14:35:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2022 15:23:39 GMT

...HOWARD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of Howard was located near 20.1, -113.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than
1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through the middle part of
this week while it moves generally westward into the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071441 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 The depression remains disheveled this morning, with the center of the system still partially exposed to the southwest of the deepest convective activity. This structure is primarily due to dry air being imported to the center by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS). Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, while the latest objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT was T2.5/35 kt. Given the lackluster satellite presentation, the initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is now moving northwest as a slightly slower pace, estimated at 315/10 kt. A mid-level ridge located northeast of the system is expected to steer it generally northwestward over the next few days. One interesting note in the immediate future is there is a weakness in this ridge to the north, partially related to an upper-level trough currently shearing the depression. If the system is able to become better aligned vertically, this could lead to a rightward shift in the short-term track. The NHC track forecast accounts for this possibility by being located on the right side of the track guidance envelope over the next 12-36 hours. This track is just a bit northeast of the previous one, though it blends back towards the consensus aids by the end of the forecast, when the system will likely be steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A weak upper-level trough located northwest of the depression is the primary feature maintaining southwesterly VWS over the system. Over the next day or so, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest this feature should decay and shift southwest, perhaps related to convection building up-shear around the depression while helping to align its low and mid-level centers. Should this process occur, intensification still appears possible. One alternate solution is that convective outflow is not able to displace the upper-level low and some amount of shear is maintained over the system. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain a peak of 45 kt in 36-48 hours, right around the time the system will be crossing the 26 C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that time, weakening is expected over even cooler SSTs and a more stable environment. The system is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low at the end of the forecast period. This intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope overall, but is close to the latest HCCA consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.8N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Aug 2022 14:37:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Aug 2022 15:22:32 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071437 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 11 16(27) X(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 26(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071437 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 ...DEPRESSION STRUGGLING BUT STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 109.9W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION STRUGGLING BUT STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 7 the center of Nine-E was located near 16.8, -109.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Aug 2022 14:42:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Aug 2022 15:22:33 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061441 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has continued to show increased signs of organization this morning. A 0857 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass suggests its circulation has become better defined, and satellite imagery shows evidence of some curved convective banding mainly to the east of its estimated low-level position. Additionally, the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.0 and T1.5, respectively. Since the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, advisories are being initiated on this system as a 30-kt tropical depression. The center is located near the western edge of the convective mass, likely due to the 10-15 kt of westerly shear that the cyclone is experiencing this morning. Although weak to moderate shear may continue to affect the system during the next couple of days, the majority of the guidance suggests that warm SSTs and sufficient mid-level moisture should allow for at least gradual strengthening through early next week. This trend is reflected in the NHC forecast, which calls for the depression to become a tropical storm by tonight and continue intensifying to near hurricane strength by Tuesday. Then, the system is forecast to move into a drier, more stable environment over decreasing SSTs, which should induce a weakening trend through the middle of next week. The estimated initial motion of the depression is northwestward, or 305/11 kt. A distant low- to mid-level ridge over the southern U.S. should steer the cyclone northwestward to west-northwestward over the next few days, keeping it well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Although there is reasonably good agreement in the early part of the forecast period, there is above-average spread in the track guidance on days 3-5. Stronger model solutions like the GFS and HWRF lie on the northern end of the guidance envelope, while the weaker ECMWF and UKMET solutions are much further south. The official NHC forecast generally follows the multi-model consensus aids, but lies a bit north of HCCA and TVCE at later forecast times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 061439 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 17(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 17(30) 1(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 46(55) 3(58) X(58) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 105.7W ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 105.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days, keeping the system well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 the center of Nine-E was located near 14.3, -105.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061438 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

262
ABPZ20 KNHC 051128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early
next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Environmental
conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves
westward toward and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of
the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some
gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward
and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart