National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...LORENA MAKES EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 108.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength today as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Lorena is likely to begin weakening by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:39:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 09:38:24 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200838 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Recent microwave imagery and ASCAT data indicate that Mario's center is located a little to the southwest of previous estimates, near a bursting area of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The initial intensity estimate remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The UW-CIMSS analysis shows shear currently around 5 kt, but the SHIPS analysis is higher, showing 15 kt. Given the cloud pattern and a banding eye feature seen in a partial GMI overpass around 0740Z, the shear looks on the lower side of that range. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show some strengthening in the short term. After that time the shear increases and the cyclone will be moving into a drier and more stable environment with decreasing SSTs. These factors should result in gradual weakening, with remnant low status expected by day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast is at or above the highest guidance through 24 hours and then is a little above the consensus aids but below the higher SHIPS and LGEM forecasts. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 030/4, as Mario appears to have slowed and turned more poleward during the past few hours. The latest global models have trended toward more interaction between Mario and Lorena this cycle. The GFS and UKMET show a merger of the two systems within 24 hours. Alternatively, the ECMWF shows a weakening Mario absorbing Lorena after 48 hours near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with a track well east of the rest of the guidance. The NHC forecast keeps the systems separate for now, with Lorena shown as dissipated in 96 hours. However, a merger is possible by 48 hours. The new NHC track shows Mario turning northward and then northwestward within 24 hours as a mid-level ridge builds over northern Mexico. Late in the period, a weakening Mario is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence of a large low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The new NHC track is to the right of the TVCE consensus, but is actually bit to the left of the previous NHC track given the initial position and motion of the system during the past few hours. Given the uncertainty in the degree of interaction with Lorena, confidence is low in the details of the track forecast even within the first 48 hours, and additional adjustments may be needed later today. Data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass were used to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 1 45(46) 5(51) X(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 18 61(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 25(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200835 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and then toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday, with this motion expected to continue through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

...MARIO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 17.6, -110.2 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:34:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 09:31:54 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200833 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of a persistent area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear as estimated by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate. Kiko is moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to continue in that general direction through today. A turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the cyclone. After that time, the models diverge considerably, with some taking Kiko northward and others westward. The differences in the models appear to be at least partially associated with the vertical depth of Kiko early next week. The NHC track forecast lies again roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus aids. Although the details of the track forecast are still uncertain, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern portion of the east Pacific basin for several more days. Since there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast, the future intensity of Kiko is also uncertain given that the environment is very track dependent. The models, in general, show Kiko changing little in intensity, and the NHC forecast does likewise. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.0N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20(22) 9(31) 2(33) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 130.1W ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 130.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slow motion between the west-northwest and west-southwest is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KIKO EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -130.1 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 200832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200537 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 108.3W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 108.3 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later this morning and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then move along the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength by tonight as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 12:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 22.4, -108.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 05:37:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:51:44 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200529
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Lorena, located near the Islas Marias.

Shower activity is currently limited in association with a weak area
of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii. This system is expected to move northeastward and
merge with Kiko this weekend and development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:53:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:38:35 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200253 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko's structure hasn't change much since the previous advisory. The asymmetric pattern of the convection suggests that the cyclone is under the influence of some shear, which UW-CIMMS is analyzing to be about 20 kt from the southwest. The initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt based on consensus Dvorak estimates of T3.0 from TAFB and SAB. A break in the mid-level steering ridge has allowed Kiko to turn northwestward, or 305/5 kt. For the next 5 days, the ridge is expected to restrengthen and then weaken again as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward. As a result, Kiko is expected to take a sinuous track while moving generally westward, staying between 16N-18N. Even with that expectation, there is significant divergence in the models toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS showing Kiko meandering and the ECMWF keeping the cyclone on a determined westward course. Because of this uncertainty, the updated NHC track has been slowed down a bit from the previous one. There has been a significant change in the intensity guidance, with most of the models showing Kiko's strength decreasing for much of the forecast period. Because there is so much uncertainty, the new NHC intensity forecast brings Kiko's winds to 50 kt in 12 hours, and then flatlines that intensity through day 4. Weakening is possible by the end of the forecast period due to a potential increase in shear. Even though the updated NHC forecast has been lowered from the previous one, it is still above the HCCA model and the multi-model consensus aids, and additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.6N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200252 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 21(23) 11(34) 3(37) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG