National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 05:37:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:51:44 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200529
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Lorena, located near the Islas Marias.

Shower activity is currently limited in association with a weak area
of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii. This system is expected to move northeastward and
merge with Kiko this weekend and development is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:53:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:38:35 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200253 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko's structure hasn't change much since the previous advisory. The asymmetric pattern of the convection suggests that the cyclone is under the influence of some shear, which UW-CIMMS is analyzing to be about 20 kt from the southwest. The initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt based on consensus Dvorak estimates of T3.0 from TAFB and SAB. A break in the mid-level steering ridge has allowed Kiko to turn northwestward, or 305/5 kt. For the next 5 days, the ridge is expected to restrengthen and then weaken again as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward. As a result, Kiko is expected to take a sinuous track while moving generally westward, staying between 16N-18N. Even with that expectation, there is significant divergence in the models toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS showing Kiko meandering and the ECMWF keeping the cyclone on a determined westward course. Because of this uncertainty, the updated NHC track has been slowed down a bit from the previous one. There has been a significant change in the intensity guidance, with most of the models showing Kiko's strength decreasing for much of the forecast period. Because there is so much uncertainty, the new NHC intensity forecast brings Kiko's winds to 50 kt in 12 hours, and then flatlines that intensity through day 4. Weakening is possible by the end of the forecast period due to a potential increase in shear. Even though the updated NHC forecast has been lowered from the previous one, it is still above the HCCA model and the multi-model consensus aids, and additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.6N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200252 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 21(23) 11(34) 3(37) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200252 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO LABORING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 129.6W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 129.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A slow motion between the west-northwest and west-southwest is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KIKO LABORING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.6, -129.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 200251 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 129.6W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 129.6W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 129.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 129.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:42:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:51:44 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 200241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Geostationary satellite data and a recently received SSM/IS overpass suggest that Lorena has gotten a little better organized since the last advisory, with a central dense overcast forming near or over a small mid-level eye seen in the microwave data. However, the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates indicate that the cyclone has not yet regained hurricane strength. The initial intensity is thus held at 60 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9. Lorena is located between a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico and Tropical Storm Mario to the south-southwest, while a large mid- to upper-level trough is northwest of Lorena over the western United States and the northeastern Pacific. The potential for Lorena to interact with Mario is producing a large spread in the guidance and a low confidence track forecast. Much of the track guidance, including the GFS, HWRF, HMON, and the GFS ensemble mean show Lorena turning so sharply westward around the north side of Mario that it passes south of the Baja California peninsula. At the other extreme is the older version of the GFS, which forecasts Lorena to moved northwestward up the Gulf of California due mainly to the influence of the Mexican ridge and the U. S. trough. The ECMWF model forecasts a track generally over the Baja California peninsula, while the UKMET shows a track into the southern Gulf of California followed by a westward turn across southern Baja. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track in forecasting Lorena to pass near the southern end of the Baja California peninsula, then move generally northwestward near the west coast of the peninsula. The new track lies well to the right of the various consensus models, but it lies to the left of the ECWMF and the old GFS model. Adjustments to the forecast track may occur once the amount of influence Mario will have on Lorena become more apparent. The intensity forecast is also very uncertain due to the track forecast uncertainties. The new intensity forecast is based on the track forecast that keeps Lorena over the water near the west coast of the the Baja California peninsula, with the cyclone re-gaining hurricane status before it moves over colder sea surface temperatures and eventually dissipates over the cold water. However there are three alternate scenarios. First, the GFS suggests the possibility that Mario will absorb Lorena and cause it to completely dissipate. Second, the older version of the GFS, with its forecast over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, would could allow Lorena to be stronger than currently forecast. Finally, the ECMWF's track over the Baja California Peninsula would also cause Lorena to weaken faster than currently forecast. The forecast track requires new warnings and watches for portions of Baja California del Sur. Additional warnings and watches may be required for this area on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 200240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 17(28) X(28) X(28) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 20 70(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 2 49(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 20(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JOSE CABO 34 13 64(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAN JOSE CABO 50 5 39(44) 3(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAN JOSE CABO 64 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 18(18) 22(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LA PAZ 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 200240 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 107.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200240 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 107.7W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Baja California del Sur north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of Baja California del Sur north of San Evaristo to Loreto, and for the west coast of Baja California del Sur north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Punta Mita. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 107.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, and this motion should continue through Friday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Friday morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 22.3, -107.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:32:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:45:12 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A new, solid burst of deep convection developed over Mario's center a little after 2200 UTC and has persisted since that time. As a result, Dvorak intensity estimates went back up to T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was 50-55 kt. As a result, Mario's initial intensity has been brought back up to 55 kt. Mario is essentially being pulled northeastward, or 045/8 kt, toward the circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena. That being said, all the major global models are now in agreement that Mario will not merge with Lorena, and a strengthening mid-level ridge over northern Mexico should force Mario to turn sharply northward and then northwestward during the next 2 days. This northwestward motion is likely to continue for the rest of the 5-day forecast period, with the cyclone's forward speed slowing down on days 4 and 5 as it moves into a weaker steering pattern. This forecast reasoning is not too different from the previous forecast, although the new NHC track has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous one to account for an overall shift in the guidance envelope. It should be noted that the deterministic ECMWF is an outlier and brings Mario to the Baja California peninsula as a weakening storm, but the bulk of that model's ensemble members favor the ocean-ward tracks shown by the other models. These ensemble solutions help to increase our confidence in the NHC track forecast. UW-CIMSS is analyzing about 5 kt of shear over Mario, and given the expanding convective canopy over the center, this could definitely be realistic. The shear could remain low enough for the next day or so to allow for some strengthening, which is shown by a number of the intensity models, and by extension, the NHC forecast. After 24 hours, increasing easterly shear is likely to lead to gradual weakening, with colder waters leading to a dissipation of all convection by day 4, if not sooner. The NHC forecast therefore now shows Mario degenerating into a remnant low on day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 4 66(70) 12(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 110W 50 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 110W 64 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 16 27(43) 5(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and northwest is expected on Friday and Saturday, with the northwestward motion continuing through the weekend. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight or on Friday. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday and continue through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 17.6, -110.2 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG