National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 14:42:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 15:23:41 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 14:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 15:30:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 715 WTPZ43 KNHC 291438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 GOES-17 Proxy-Vis and enhanced IR imagery show that Georgette's cloud pattern has become more symmetric with colder -77C inner core cloud tops. An earlier AMSR2 revealed an eye-like feature in the lower frequency band and a well-developed rain band in the north part of the cyclone. The eye feature, however, was not evident in the infrared presentation. Although the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB haven't changed; the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt in deference to the microwave image. The global models and the statistical intensity guidance indicate that the easterly shear will increase within 24 hours, causing Georgette to weaken slowly. However, due to Georgette's compact size, intensity fluctuations are possible in the short term. The latest GFS run shows that Georgette could hang on a little longer than the NHC forecast indicates, possibly as a post-tropical cyclone. Therefore, adjusting the forecast may be deemed necessary to extend the cyclone's life in subsequent advisories. The official forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity aids. Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be just a bit south of due west or 260/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching east-northeast to west-southwest should steer the small cyclone west to west-southwestward during the next 48 hours. Afterward, a reduction in forward speed along with a turn toward the northeast is expected in response to larger Frank weakening the ridge and disrupting the steering flow while passing to the northeast of Georgette. Although the ECMWF global has been the best performer in the eastern Pacific this season with respect to forecast track, the model continues to initialize poorly the compact TC indicating a significantly weaker system while remaining the left tracker outlier. The GFS, however, now has a more accurate depiction of the cyclone's size and vertical depth and shows a more direct response to Frank's larger wind field. There still is quite a bit of uncertainty in Georgette's future track as evident by the larger than usual guidance spread, particularly after the northeast turn. Consequently, this is a low confidence forecast. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, but has been adjusted to the left beyond that point to agree more with the HCCA and GEFS/EPS ensemble member solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 291437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 16 39(55) X(55) 1(56) 2(58) 2(60) X(60) 15N 125W 50 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 291437 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 In infrared imagery, Frank's appearance has not changed much since the last advisory. While the system shows a large curved convective band that wraps a little more than three-quarters of the way around the center, the central deep convection is a bit ragged, possibly due to dry air entrainment from the northwest. However, recent 37 GHz microwave data shows the cyclone has developed a good low-level structure, with a ring of shallow to moderate convection surrounding a 40 n mi wide developing eye. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Frank will be in an environment of light vertical shear and over sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 36 h, and the inner-core structure seen in the microwave imagery favors a faster rate of strengthening. The one current negative factor is the dry air entrainment that is causing the inner core deep convection to sputter. The intensity forecast assumes strengthening will resume as the deep convection will becomes persistent, and it follows the trend of the intensity guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 90 kt in 36 h. After that time, Frank should move over progressively cooler SSTs, with the system reaching 21C water by 120 h. This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Frank is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Frank is moving along the southwest side of the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico, and it should move generally northwestward during the forecast period toward a developing break in the ridge west of California. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and has changed little since the previous advisory. Thus, the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are expected to come close enough to one another for some interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and Georgette will have little impact on the track or intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 291437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 ...GEORGETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 123.0W ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 123.0 West. Georgette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-southwest to southwest motion at a gradually slower pace is expected during the next few of days followed by a turn toward the northeast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the short term due to Georgette's compact size. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GEORGETTE STRENGTHENS A BIT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 the center of Georgette was located near 15.1, -123.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 291436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 291436 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 15(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 34 77 17(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 115W 50 5 32(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 115W 64 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 51(61) 24(85) X(85) X(85) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 31(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 291436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 ...FRANK CHANGES LITTLE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 113.0W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.0 West. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and a general northwestward motion should then continue through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Saturday night, and Frank is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Frank is expected to weaken on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANK CHANGES LITTLE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 the center of Frank was located near 14.2, -113.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 291436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281538 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Corrected typo in first paragraph Georgette's structure on conventional satellite imagery remains distinct this morning, with a small yet intense central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold at -80 C near where the center is estimated currently. The 1 minute GOES-17 data, in combination with some cyclonically rotating GLM flashes, has been helpful in determining the center location on first-light visible, which appears more embedded in the convection than previously expected. A 1234 UTC SSMIS microwave pass also hints at this more embedded structure. The initial intensity remains 45-kt in closest agreement with the 1200 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Georgette's center may have relocated a bit closer to the convection this morning, but the current motion is still estimated at south of due west at 260/9 kt. As previously discussed, a northeast to southwest-oriented ridge should continue to steer Georgette west-southwestward or southwestward for the next 12-24 hours, and the guidance is in decent agreement of the track during this time frame. However, after 24 hours, the track forecast becomes highly problematic as the larger circulation of Frank approaches from the east. The majority of the deterministic track aids respond to Frank by quickly absorbing Georgette into its larger circulation, with the trackers quickly shifting to the center of Frank between the 36-60 hour forecast. However, this apparent absorption solution is not a done deal, and there is a non-negligible number of European ensemble members that keep Georgette a distinct feature beyond the next 2-3 days. In addition, it is primarily the stronger and rightward ensemble track members that have this solution, and Georgette is already stronger and right-of-track compared to much of the deterministic guidance this morning. For these reasons, the latest track forecast was nudged further west compared to the previous one, attempting to the account for the possibility that the stronger-rightward ECMWF ensemble members could verify, and now shows dissipation at 120 hours, which is a little later than the previous forecast. Needless to say though, the track forecast has higher-than-normal uncertainty due to the difficulty in forecasting these binary TC interactions. Intensity-wise, Georgette still could intensify a bit more today in a moderate easterly shear environment while over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. However, mid-level relative humidity diagnosed by SHIPS guidance remains quite low, and the shear could still import dry air into Georgette's tiny core and disrupt its current convective structure. After today, the majority of the guidance either maintains or weakens the tropical storm, and the latest intensity forecast will continue to show a steady state 50-kt tropical storm from 24-48 hours. Assuming Frank does get close to Georgette, its easterly upper-level outflow and westerly low-level inflow could further increase the shear after 48 hours, and gradual weakening is shown after that time. At 120 hours, Georgette is forecast to open up into a trough as Frank either absorbs it or passes by to its north. The NHC intensity forecast is in closest agreement to the latest LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.8N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 14:46:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 15:28:33 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 230 FOPZ13 KNHC 281446 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 65 18(83) X(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 120W 50 20 18(38) X(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 120W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 6(16) X(16) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281446 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022 ...GEORGETTE HOLDING STEADY NOW BUT HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 118.7W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Georgette is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) but a turn to the west-southwest or southwest is anticipated today or tonight into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A little additional strengthening is forecast today or tonight followed by little change in intensity through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...GEORGETTE HOLDING STEADY NOW BUT HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 28 the center of Georgette was located near 15.8, -118.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281445 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 118.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.2N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 121.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN