National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031700
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Georgette, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located off the western coast of Central America is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The wave is forecast to move west and an area of low pressure is
expected to form south of southern Mexico within the next couple of
days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend. The system is forecast to turn
west-northwestward over the weekend into early next week, remaining
well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure could form over the far western portion
of the eastern Pacific basin later this week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the weekend or early
next week while it moves westward toward the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2022 14:39:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2022 15:22:28 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022 514 WTPZ43 KNHC 031435 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022 Georgette is producing minimal deep convection this morning with very little organization. Based on its current lack of organization, it could become post-tropical at almost any time. The intitial intensity of 30 kt is based primarily on continuity, though it does fall in the range between the latest TAFB Final-T and Current Intensity estimates. Various dynamical models suggest the cyclone will weaken and become post tropical within a day, which makes sense given it is moving into a drier, more stable region. Once Georgette becomes post-tropical, it should continue to slowly spin down and ultimately open into a trough within about 60 h. No changes of note were made to the official intensity forecast. The initial motion is estimated at 020/9kt, a little faster than previously forecast. A low-level ridge is expected to build to the northeast of Georgette today, which should cause the cyclone or its remnants to turn gradually westward over the next day and a half. The NHC track forecast has been shifted to the north, primarily due to Georgette's recent faster north-northeastward motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.8N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.5N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 18.2N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 18.6N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 18.4N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031435 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 031435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022 ...GEORGETTE NEARLY POST-TROPICAL... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 129.2W ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Georgette was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 129.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). Georgette is forecast to turn northward with a slight decrease in forward speed today. A gradual turn toward the west is expected by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is anticipated. Georgette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, if not sooner. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...GEORGETTE NEARLY POST-TROPICAL... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 3 the center of Georgette was located near 16.8, -129.2 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.2W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.2W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 129.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 129.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.2N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.6N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.4N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 129.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located about 675 miles west-southwest of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Georgette, located about
1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of eastern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend.
This system is forecast to move west-northwestward, remaining well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Well Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
later this week. Some gradual development of this system is
possible by the end of this week while it moves westward over the
open waters of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2022 14:38:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2022 15:22:35 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 021438 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Organized deep convection associated with Frank ceased overnight, and the tropical storm should become post-tropical very soon. The weakening cyclone is moving northwest near 10 kt, and should gradually bend toward the north over the next 36 h, then north-northeast by Thursday, steered primarily by the low-level flow. The latest TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity estimate is 35 kt, so the initial intensity is set at that value. Continued weakening will occur over the next few days while Frank gradually spins down over cold water with little or no convection to sustain it. Dissipation is forecast by nearly all of the dynamical models near or just after 60 h. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are near the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 24.8N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 26.1N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1200Z 28.0N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 30.0N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 33.7N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 021437 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 021437 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.1N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.0N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.7N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 021437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 ...FRANK WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 125.4W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 125.4 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual bend toward the north is expected over the next day and a half, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected for the next couple of days. Frank is forecast to become post-tropical this afternoon and dissipate by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...FRANK WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 2 the center of Frank was located near 24.8, -125.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2022 14:36:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2022 15:28:28 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021435 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Convection has continued to pulse near Georgette's circulation over the past 12 to 24 hours, but there has been little, if any, organization to the thunderstorm activity during that time. In fact, the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) provided its last Dvorak T1.0 on the system at 1800 UTC yesterday, indicating the lack of organization since that time. The initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT data that showed peak winds just above 25 kt. Given the lack of organization it now appears more likely that Georgette will succumb to the marginal environment that is embedded within. Moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs cooling to around 26C along the forecast track, and dry mid-level humidity is expected to result in additional weakening and degeneration of the system to a remnant low within the next day or two. This could occur as soon as later today, if organized deep convection does not return. Georgette has made its much anticipated northeastward turn, with the latest motion estimated at 040/6 kt. Low- to mid-level southwesterly flow to the south of Frank should continue to steer Georgette northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, a low-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which will cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the previous forecast to be in better agreement with the latest track model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.1N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 15.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 16.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 16.8N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 16.7N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 021434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 24 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 021434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Georgette Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 ...DISORGANIZED GEORGETTE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 130.4W ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Georgette was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 130.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday followed by a turn to the west along with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Georgette could become a remnant low at any time within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DISORGANIZED GEORGETTE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT ANY TIME... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 2 the center of Georgette was located near 14.1, -130.4 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 021434 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 129.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.7N 129.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.8N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.7N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN