National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 210257 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 66 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) LA PAZ 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LORETO 34 2 61(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) LORETO 50 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LORETO 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 34 X 3( 3) 45(48) 9(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) BAHIA KINO 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X 20(20) 34(54) 1(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) GUAYMAS 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GUAYMAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210256 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The eye of Lorena passed near or over the Cabo Pulmo area of the Baja California peninsula a few hours ago and is currently located just off of the east coast of the peninsula east-southeast of La Paz. Satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane remains well organized, with cold eyewall cloud tops surrounding a cloud-filled eye. Based on the land interaction that has occurred since the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly conservative 70 kt. Lorena has continued to move to the right of the previous forecast track, and the initial motion is now 330/7. The hurricane is mostly being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. This combination should steer Lorena generally north-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The track guidance has continued to shift to the right since the last advisory. As a result, the new forecast track has also shifted and now calls for the center of Lorena to move up the length of the Gulf of California. However, the GFS, the old version of the GFS, and the ECMWF are all to the right of the current track, with these models forecasting a more northward motion into mainland Mexico. Thus, additional adjustments to the forecast track may be required on subsequent advisories. The new forecast track requires significant changes to the watches and warnings for the Baja California peninsula and northwestern mainland Mexico. Lorena should spend another 24-36 h over the warm waters of the Gulf of California in light to moderate shear conditions. The intensity guidance does not show much strengthening during this time, and the official forecast follows the guidance. However, it would not be a surprise if Lorena strengthened a little given the current structure. After that, the cyclone should encounter strong shear which would likely cause steady to even rapid weakening, and the intensity forecast has the system weakening to a remnant low as it reaches the northern end of the Gulf of California. If the cyclone makes an earlier landfall in mainland Mexico, it will likely dissipate faster than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States from late this weekend into early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula through tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane conditions to portions of mainland Mexico where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 24.0N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210256 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 109.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from La Paz to Santa Rosalia. The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista. The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Bahia Kino. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California near the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Saturday, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday night. After that, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across the hurricane warning area tonight through Saturday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over western Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 24.0, -109.7 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 210255 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.7W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.7W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 109.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Recent geostationary imagery from GOES-17 suggests that the center of Mario is located on the northeastern edge of the convective canopy, which is consistent with the northeasterly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity guidance shows steady weakening during the next 72 hours, with Mario expected to spin down due to persistent moderate to strong shear and a track over cooler SSTs by 48 hours. Deep convection should be gone by 72 hours, and remnant low status is shown by that time, with dissipation expected by 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but on the high end of the guidance near the LGEM model. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 360/04, as the center location has been difficult to pinpoint without any recent microwave imagery. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, showing Mario moving north-northwestward and then northwestward in the wake of Lorena, and is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus. While this forecast keeps the center of the weakening Mario offshore of the Baja California peninsula, some impacts there are still possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 02:41:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:38:02 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 210240 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 39 26(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 110W 50 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 72 6(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 210240 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 110.1W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 110.1 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster motion toward the north-northwest is expected overnight and Saturday, followed by a northwestward motion through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday and become a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Mario was located near 18.4, -110.1 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 210238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A 2145Z AMSR2 overpass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye displaced to the northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS was 56 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. The above-mentioned AMSR2 pass and a partial SSMIS pass at 2355Z showed the center of Kiko was located farther east than previously estimated. After some adjustments to the working best track, the initial motion estimate is 325/04. The guidance still shows Kiko moving on a wave-like trajectory as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in intensity during the forecast period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast, but is a little faster, trending toward the speed of the consensus aids. There is a lot of spread in the model guidance, by day 5, with the GFS and ECMWF over 400 n mi apart, so confidence in the details of the track forecast is low especially late in the forecast period. All of the intensity guidance shows quick weakening with Kiko, as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and in a somewhat stable and dry atmospheric environment. The new NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward, and is near or a little above the latest intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 02:36:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:31:35 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 2(25) X(25) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 130.5W ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 130.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion is expected on Saturday followed by a west-southwestward motion through early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

...KIKO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Kiko was located near 18.3, -130.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202347
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane
Lorena, located very near the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 23:46:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 22:06:24 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 202344 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 109.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...95 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 109.5 West. Lorena is now moving toward the northwest at about 5 mph (8 km/h). On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane should move over or near the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven