National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have changed little in organization during the past several hours.
This system is still likely to become a short-lived tropical
cyclone during the next day or so before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development on Sunday. The low is forecast
to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore the coast
of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern
Mexico have become better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward or
northwestward at about 10 mph, well offshore the coast of Mexico
through the weekend. The disturbance should move into an environment
that is less conducive for development by Sunday, and further
development will be unlikely at that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico have continued to gradually become more
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Aug 2022 14:42:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Aug 2022 15:22:29 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101441 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today, and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h. Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 101440 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 101440 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 120.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 120.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 101440 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 ...HOWARD FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN A DAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 120.2W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 120.2 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Howard is forecast to weaken further today and tonight, and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...HOWARD FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN A DAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 the center of Howard was located near 23.7, -120.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Howard, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with a broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2022 14:37:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2022 15:22:34 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091436 TCDEP4 Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 Howard has been maintaining a ragged-looking eye on geostationary imagery, but an AMSR-2 microwave overpass showed a well-defined ring of convection in the core. The current intensity is set at 75 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The hurricane continues to exhibit a fairly well-defined upper-level outflow pattern, indicative of low vertical wind shear. The system is currently over marginally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear is not predicted to increase much over the next couple of days. However Howard will be passing over increasingly cooler ocean waters and into a drier, more stable air mass. These conditions should lead to steady weakening, with the cyclone becoming post-tropical over 22 deg C SSTs in about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or at about 300/9 kt. A generally west-northwestward track is likely over the next few days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. A westward turn is expected late in the forecast period when the the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric flow. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction, and remains close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.0N 116.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091436 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 25N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Howard Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 ...HOWARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 116.9W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 116.9 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later today and continue during the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become post-tropical on Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HOWARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 9 the center of Howard was located near 22.0, -116.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091435 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 116.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 116.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081724
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Development of this system,
if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days. This
system is expected to move generally westward into the central
Pacific basin by the middle portion of this week, where
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is possible later this week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081438 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Compared to yesterday at this time, Howard has become a much better organized tropical cyclone. After the previous advisory, we received an AMSR-2 microwave pass valid at 0844 UTC, which showed a nearly closed cyan ring at 36 GHz, suggesting a low-level eye feature had developed. More recently, 1-minute GOES-18 interleave satellite imagery is occasionally depicting a banding-type eye signature with colder cloud tops beginning to wrap around this feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T3.5/55 kt at 1200 UTC, which supports raising the intensity to 55 kt this advisory. Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track guidance remains is good agreement that this northwestward motion will continue for the next 24 hours as Howard remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Starting tomorrow, the storm should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance has shifted ever so slightly north of the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC track was nudged in that direction, remaining close to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Howard has another 12-18 hours over greater than 26 C sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a low shear environment. Given the improvement in the inner core structure and higher initial intensity, the latest NHC forecast was raised quite a bit from the previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a hurricane later today. After 24 hours, the storm will be moving over rapidly cooling SSTs as the atmospheric environment becomes more stable with shear also increasing. Thus, steady weakening is expected and the latest intensity forecast still makes Howard post-tropical in 60 hours. This forecast is higher than the intensity guidance over the first day, but falls back in line with the consensus aids after that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 20.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2022 14:35:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Aug 2022 15:23:39 GMT

...HOWARD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of Howard was located near 20.1, -113.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.