National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 071756 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 ...KAY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 112.8W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas * San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin * Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 112.8 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula this afternoon, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible this afternoon. Although weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning in the next few hours and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch on Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday… Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 12:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 the center of Kay was located near 21.4, -112.8 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 071510 CCA TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 Corrected first Key Message Kay appears to be on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that the hurricane has a large eye, with a diameter of about 25 n mi, and a nearly symmetric eyewall. There are some dry slots between the eyewall and rainbands, however. The subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to T5.0/90 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt based on that data. This intensity estimate is below the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, so it is possible that Kay could be a little stronger. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Kay this afternoon, and the data the plane collects will be very helpful in assessing the intensity and structure of the hurricane. Kay will likely strengthen a little more, and it could become a major hurricane while it remains in conducive environmental conditions today. However, by early tomorrow, the hurricane is expected to move over sub 26 C SSTs and move over progressively cooler waters during the following few days. The cooler SSTs and drier air should cause a steady weakening trend later this week and this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, and lies at the high end of the guidance during the first few days of the forecast. The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, and that motion should continue for the next couple of days taking the core of Kay very near or over the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. After that time, when Kay moves close to northern Baja, a turn to the left is expected as the shallow system becomes steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and close to the various consensus models. Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of southern California and southwestern Arizona Friday night into Saturday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 21.1N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 071443 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 11(11) 66(77) 10(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 31(31) 18(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P ABREOJOS 34 4 45(49) 38(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) P ABREOJOS 50 X 3( 3) 27(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 13 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 6 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUAYMAS 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 14 67(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 25N 115W 50 1 30(31) 10(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 25N 115W 64 X 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 071443 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWARD ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN QUINTIN NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN QUINTIN TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 112.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2022 17:33:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Sep 2022 15:38:34 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 061733 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 ...KAY PRODUCING ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 110.5W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Evaristo southward to Cabo San Lucas * Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Evaristo northward to Santa Rosalia * North of Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Kay as hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 110.5 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Kay could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A weather station in Socorro Island recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja California peninsula by late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California coast and into the Gulf of California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through Thursday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KAY PRODUCING ROUGH SURF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... As of 12:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 the center of Kay was located near 18.4, -110.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kay, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 310 WTPZ42 KNHC 061446 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 Satellite data indicate that Kay has been relatively steady in strength during the past several hours. A ragged eye feature has occasionally been apparent, and microwave data show that the eyewall and rainbands are most organized on the south side. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kay later today. It should be noted that Kay is a fairly large hurricane with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. Kay is also producing a large area of high seas, with swells currently affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Kay is moving northwestward at 13 kt and it appears to be moving along the previous forecast track. The track models have barely changed this cycle and continue to show a northwest to north-northwest motion continuing for the next few days as the hurricane moves in the flow on the western periphery of a ridge over Mexico. This should take the core of Kay very near the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. After that time, a turn to the left is predicted as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over the western United States. The NHC track forecast is basically the same as the previous one and lies closest to the HCCA consensus model. The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should decrease during the next day or so. The anticipated more conducive upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 36 hours, and it could become a major hurricane during that time. Thereafter, sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce steady weakening. Kay is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it is forecast to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, especially during the first 48 hours. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and strong hurricane at that time. In addition, winds, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through Thursday night. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind, surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula later this week. A tropical storm or hurricane watch could be issued for that region later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 18.0N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 248 FOPZ12 KNHC 061445 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) 1(31) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 49(59) 2(61) X(61) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 31(62) X(62) X(62) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 7(10) 6(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 85 1(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA SOCORRO 64 81 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 34 3 14(17) 9(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 60(75) 13(88) X(88) X(88) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 18(53) X(53) X(53) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) X(29) X(29) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 30N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 996 WTPZ22 KNHC 061445 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 270SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 051732 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022 ...KAY STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 106.8W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas * Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely monitor the progress of Kay as Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kay is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to remain south and southwest of southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KAY STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE... As of 12:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 the center of Kay was located near 15.5, -106.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2022 17:32:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2022 15:38:57 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located a couple of hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located a couple of hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2022 14:49:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2022 15:36:22 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 694 WTPZ42 KNHC 041448 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center to be classified a tropical depression. Thunderstorm activity, with a significant amount of lightning, is strongest in a band on the system's west side. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should also be noted there are likely strong wind gusts to the north of the center where winds typically accelerate in these situations near the coast of Mexico. The initial motion is estimated to be 280/9 kt, but this is somewhat uncertain since the system just formed. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and then the north. Although the models agree on this turn, there is some spread on where and how sharply the system recurves. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads show solutions as far east as the Gulf of California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track forecast follows the consensus models, which takes the system very near the Baja peninsula in 4 to 5 days. Overall, the environmental factors appear conducive for the depression to intensify during the next few days with the shear remaining low to moderate in strength, mid-level moisture very high, and SSTs sufficently warm. However, the large size of the system and lack of an inner core should limit rapid intensification in the short term. The intensity guidance show at least steady strengthening during the next 72 hours followed by some weakening toward the end of the forecast period due to cooler SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN guidance, and shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today and a significant hurricane near Baja in a few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the depression is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of southwestern Mexico. 2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the depression as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 916 FOPZ12 KNHC 041447 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 31(41) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 2(37) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 2(32) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 63(64) 13(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 105W 50 X 19(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 105W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 23(28) 11(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 8(63) X(63) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 75(82) 3(85) 1(86) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 5(53) X(53) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 25(44) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI