National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the southwest of
its center. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, some additional gradual development is possible during
the next day or two. The system is forecast to move little through
midweek, then merge with the disturbance to its east shortly
thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is
forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off the
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
by that time. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the southwest of
its center. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, some additional gradual development is possible during
the next day or two. The system is forecast to move little through
midweek, then merge with the disturbance to its east shortly
thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is
forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off the
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
by that time. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the Gulf of
Tehuantepec westward near the southern coast of Mexico are
associated with a trough of low pressure. This system is forecast
to merge with another disturbance located farther west, and
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development over the next several days. A tropical depression could
form by the middle to latter part of this week while the system
moves slowly westward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form near the coast of
southern Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some development of this system
by the middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward near
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Sep 2022 17:47:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Sep 2022 15:28:49 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 091746 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 ...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 117.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border * Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then begin to move further offshore by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California. During the past few hours, wind gusts of hurricane force have been reported in the mountains of southern California east and northeast of San Diego. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and damaging waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday... Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 8 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to 8 inches Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 9 the center of Kay was located near 30.7, -117.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located just off the northern Baja California peninsula.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure may form south or southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
thereafter while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 516 FOPZ12 KNHC 091452 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LONG BEACH/LA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) S CATALINA IS 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN DIEGO CA 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) TIJUANA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ENSENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) IS GUADALUPE 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 30N 120W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 307 WTPZ42 KNHC 091453 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022 Kay is gradually becoming less organized. There is currently minimal convection near its center of circulation, although there is a complex of convective bands occurring about 75-150 n mi north of the center. Doppler radar data from Yuma and San Diego has shown winds as high as 60 kt aloft, although it is unclear how well these winds are mixing down to the surface. Based on the radar and satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, and this could be a bit generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to investigate Kay. Kay should continue to weaken as it reaches sea surface temperatures of 20-21C by 24 h, and the dynamical model suggest it should stop producing convection near or just after that time. The new intensity forecast shows the cyclone as a minimal tropical storm in 24 h, followed by decay to a remnant low as the convection dissipates and the winds drop below tropical-storm force. The global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate between 96-120 h, and the new intensity forecast follows this. The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/ 11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Kay is expected to cause the cyclone to gradually turn west-northwestward away from land in the next 12 h, followed by a westward turn between 12-24 h. After that time, low-level ridging in the Eastern Pacific should steer the remnant low slowly southward and then southeastward before the system dissipates completely. There was little change in the track forecast guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Although Kay's intensity has decreased, the tropical cyclone 34-kt wind radii remain quite large on its eastern side. Wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track of Kay. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning today, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning today in Arizona and southern Nevada. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions extend all the way to the northern Gulf of California coastline, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 30.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 091452 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF PUERTO LIBERTAD...FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER * BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO LIBERTAD IN MAINLAND MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 116.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 116.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Sep 2022 18:01:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Sep 2022 15:35:59 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 081800 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 ...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 114.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Todos Santos. * San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border * North of la Paz northward along the entire east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in thisd case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 114.1 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected move over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days. However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning during the next few hours, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday… Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 12:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 8 the center of Kay was located near 26.6, -114.1 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kay, which is near the central Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 081443 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Kay continues to lose organization in satellite imagery, as there is no longer an eye present and the central convection continues to decrease. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 65-77 kt range, and based on this the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 75 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Kay. Kay is now over 23C sea surface temperatures and will be traversing progressively cooler SSTs over the next couple of days. That, along with land interaction and a gradually drying mid-level air mass, is expected to cause gradual weakening over the next couple of days. However, Kay is forecast to remain a hurricane when it passes near or over the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 12 h, and remain a tropical storm as it passes just west of the northwestern portion of the peninsula on Friday. The cyclone is expected to lose its convection and become post-tropical between 48-60 h, and then decay to a remnant low pressure area by 72 h. Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 345/13 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a north-northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. The track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, so the new track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Kay remains a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast later this morning through this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 25.8N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 081443 PWSEP2 HURRICANE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S CATALINA IS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TIJUANA 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ENSENADA 34 3 8(11) 16(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) IS GUADALUPE 34 4 10(14) 4(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 63 15(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 21 20(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) P ABREOJOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ABREOJOS 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) P ABREOJOS 64 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P PENASCO 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HERMOSILLO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 36 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GUAYMAS 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HUATABAMPO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 30N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 170 WTPZ22 KNHC 081442 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER * NORTH OF LA PAZ NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 113.8W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......200NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 113.8W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 113.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Sep 2022 17:57:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Sep 2022 15:40:01 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071757
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kay, located a couple hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven