National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221431 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221431 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 111.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 111.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning. At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of the disturbance was estimated near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 111.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion will continue to bring the disturbance farther inland until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds associated with this system are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Dissipation is expected tonight or early Monday. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Avila

...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.8, -111.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221102
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lorena, located over the central Gulf of California,
on Tropical Depression Mario, located a few hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 509 WTPZ43 KNHC 220858 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 A small but growing burst of deep convection has resumed near the center of Kiko, but the cyclone is considerably weaker than earlier today. ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 30-35 kt, and 35 kt will be the initial intensity. Within about 24 hours, Kiko has a chance to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters in a lighter shear region. Model agreement is in fairly good agreement on tenacious Kiko intensifying once again. However, Kiko should resume weakening again in about 3 days due to a significant increase in shear and cooler waters, and hopefully the next 48 hours are the last hurrah of Kiko. Kiko is moving southwestward tonight at about 7 kt. The storm should continue to lose latitude for about the next 24 hours due to the orientation of a ridge to the northwest. After that time, the western portion of an incoming mid-latitude trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. No significant changes were made to the sinuous forecast track and, if Kiko survives as long as predicted below, it would end up one of the 10 longest-lasting tropical cyclones in eastern Pacific history. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.0N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:57:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:39:01 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220857 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 13(14) 13(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) 1(23) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220857 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 132.9W ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 132.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening could begin late Sunday, but is forecast to be short-lived with weakening anticipated by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -132.9 with movement SW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220856 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 132.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 132.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 132.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220856 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Lorena Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Very little convection remains with Lorena, with only a small burst near the center. Strong southwesterly shear continues to weaken Lorena, and ASCAT data indicate the maximum winds are down to 30 kt. All watches and warnings have been discontinued on this advisory. Lorena is forecast to move northward across northwestern Mexico later this morning and rapidly dissipate within 24 hours over the high terrain. There are no significant changes to the track or intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora today. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 28.3N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:55:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:52:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 220855 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAHIA KINO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220855 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lorena Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 111.5W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning for western mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lorena was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 111.5 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours, followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico today before subsiding on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.3, -111.5 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 220854 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 111.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.7N 111.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220851 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Mario continues to be a fully exposed swirl of low clouds devoid of convection, and is close to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt based on ASCAT data. With no models showing any significant re-development of deep convection, slow weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should decay into a remnant low later today. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, adjusted for lower initial winds. Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 335/8 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north- northwestward at a slower pace through 48 hours. The new forecast track is very close to the previous one and the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 08:50:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:45:36 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 220850 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART