National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 14:29:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 15:35:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251429 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has been weakening during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously. The system should gradually weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier air into the circulation. This environment should eliminate any significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is now indicated in 12 hours. The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated at 240/8 kt. Newton should move southwestward during the next few days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251429 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has been weakening during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously. The system should gradually weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier air into the circulation. This environment should eliminate any significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is now indicated in 12 hours. The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated at 240/8 kt. Newton should move southwestward during the next few days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251428 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251428 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251428 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251428 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251428 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...NEWTON FORECAST TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 116.4W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 116.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the southwest is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Newton should degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Monday, and the wind speed is forecast to gradually decrease through midweek. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251428 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...NEWTON FORECAST TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 116.4W ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 116.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the southwest is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Newton should degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Monday, and the wind speed is forecast to gradually decrease through midweek. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...NEWTON FORECAST TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 the center of Newton was located near 19.0, -116.4 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

...NEWTON FORECAST TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 the center of Newton was located near 19.0, -116.4 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241707
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Newton, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 14:50:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:47:33 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 190 WTPZ45 KNHC 241448 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Small bursts of convection continue to form near the center of Newton's center. A recent satellite microwave pass still showed a small curved band in the northern semicircle of the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite classifications range between 25-35 kt. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt. The combination of low environmental relative humidities and moderate vertical wind shear are expected to slowly weaken Newton, despite the relatively warm sea surface temperatures. There is little change in the latest intensity forecast and Newton is still expected to become a remnant low in two days and dissipate within three days. Newton is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt and gradually turning to the west. As convection slowly dwindles, the shallow vortex is expected to turn westward and eventually southwestward in the low-level flow in the next day or so. The track guidance is tightly clustered and the official forecast track is very similar to the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 19.1N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 709 FOPZ15 KNHC 241448 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 6 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 859 WTPZ25 KNHC 241447 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 858 WTPZ35 KNHC 241447 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...NEWTON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 113.2W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 113.2 West. Newton is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and southwest is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is forecast, and Newton is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by late Sunday or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...NEWTON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 the center of Newton was located near 19.1, -113.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Newton, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue just south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec in association with a trough of low pressure.
Upper-level winds are not forecast to be conducive for development
of this system while it drifts westward to southwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2022 14:50:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Sep 2022 15:49:49 GMT