National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Oct 2022 14:50:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Oct 2022 15:22:35 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 728 WTPZ44 KNHC 201449 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Convection associated with the cyclone has become a bit better organized since the last advisory, with a strong cluster having developed near the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now near 35 kt, and based on this the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Roslyn with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system has strengthened, recent microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggests that multiple low-level swirls are present near the center, indicating that the inner core has not yet tightened up. The initial motion is now 275/5 kt along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the storm. In addition, a deep-layer low pressure area is currently located southwest of California, and west of the ridge. These features are forecast to move slowly eastward during the next few days, with the deep-layer steering flow near Roslyn changing from easterly to southeasterly to southerly and eventually to southwesterly. This evolution should cause the storm to recurve between the ridge and the low and make landfall in western Mexico. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However, there is some spread regarding how quickly Roslyn will recurve. The GFS is on the right side of the guidance envelope with the center passing near Cabo Corrientes, while the UKMET and ECMWF are farther west. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast and calls for the center to pass just west of Cabo Corrientes in about 72 h, followed by landfall in mainland Mexico before 96 h. The new forecast track is near or a little to the east of the consensus models. Roslyn is currently over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear. These conditions are likely to persist for the next 72 h or so, and they should allow Roslyn to steadily intensify. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to a forecast increase in shear, the possibility of dry air entrainment, and the possibility of land interaction. The new NHC forecast is generally similar to the previous forecast, although it has a slightly lower peak intensity before landfall in mainland Mexico due to a downward trend in the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, with the cyclone dissipating over the mountains of Mexico between 96-120 h. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system, and hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required for portions of this coastline later today. 2. Heavy rainfall from Roslyn could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.2N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201448 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 17(59) X(59) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 17(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) X(35) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 28(48) X(48) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 16(51) X(51) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 6(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 32(36) 3(39) X(39) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 30(47) 2(49) X(49) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 613 WTPZ24 KNHC 201448 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 612 WTPZ34 KNHC 201448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a northward motion by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or over the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Roslyn outer rainbands may produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas of Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Roslyn is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 the center of Roslyn was located near 15.2, -102.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area
located a couple hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico continues to become better organized. In addition, recent
satellite wind data indicates the circulation is becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight as the system moves generally west-northwestward,
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the
southwestern and western coasts of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. This system has become a little
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression
is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle part of
this week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development as the system moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

462
ABPZ20 KNHC 131725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

740
ABPZ20 KNHC 121750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located near the coast of southern
Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Any
development of this system over the next few days is likely to be
slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity
to land. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward near the southern coast of Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Gulf
of Tehuantepec southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated
with a surface trough and Julia's remnants. Development, if any,
of this system is likely to be slow to occur due to dry air aloft
and marginal upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico,
through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of southern
Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Julia, located inland over southern Guatemala.

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
Tropical Depression Julia is forecast to dissipate inland over
Guatemala later today or tonight. A portion of its remnants are
expected to move westward and could contribute to the formation of
a new area of low pressure just south of the coast of southern
Mexico in another day or two. Some subsequent gradual development
of the new system will be possible while it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico through the
end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the remnants of Julia interacting with a broader
area of low pressure will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides
across portions of southern Mexico and northern Central America
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 637 WTPZ43 KNHC 101445 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Julia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Microwave and surface observations indicate the center of Julia went inland just before 1200 UTC about 35 miles west of San Salvador. Deep convection has weakened somewhat over the center since that time, and the whole circulation is becoming stretched by the mountainous terrain. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, assuming some spin down of the winds from friction. Julia should dissipate by this evening while it continues moving west-northwestward over southern Guatemala. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Regardless, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of Central America through today and southern Mexico through tomorrow. Some of the residual moisture and vorticity associated with Julia could become absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the west, associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For information on the potential for new development offshore of southern Mexico later this week, please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.1N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:45:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2022 15:22:10 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 101445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 101445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Julia Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES SHOULD CONTINUE FROM JULIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 90.3W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All watches and warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 90.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move over southern Guatemala today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Julia is expected to dissipate this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: *El Salvador and southern Guatemala...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches *Western Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches *Belize, remainder of Honduras, and northern Guatemala...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 10 inches *Nicaragua...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 15 inches *Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm total of 6 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are possible today along the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake