National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 14:59:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 15:31:37 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291456 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ZIHUATANEJO 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291456 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 The center of Narda either re-formed to the northwest or accelerated its forward motion during the night, as surface observations from Mexico and satellite imagery indicate that it is now located along the coast of Mexico near Lazaro Cardenas. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on the Mexican observations and little change in the satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. First-light visible imagery suggests that the cyclone's circulation is elongated east-west, with the center located on the eastern side of the elongation. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 325/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Narda will be steered generally northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west should cause the system to turn north-northwestward. The new forecast track is parallel to, but moved significantly to the right of, the previous forecast due to the initial position and motion, and it keeps the center over portions of western Mexico for the next 12-24 hours before bringing the system over the southeastern and eastern portions of the Gulf of California. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast will follow the scenario of the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken to a depression while over Mexico, and then call for some re-intensification later in the forecast period when the system emerges over water in a light shear environment. However, there are two alternative scenarios. The most likely of these is that the circulation dissipates as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico, which is a distinct possibility if the system goes as far inland as currently forecast. The least likely is that the center reforms offshore, which could lead to significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts. The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.1N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291455 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...CENTER OF NARDA MOVING ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR LAZARO CARDENAS... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 102.1W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over or near portions of the western and southwestern coasts of Mexico through tonight, then emerge over the Pacific on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as the center moves over land, and Narda is forecast to weaken to a depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are now occuring within the warning area and should continue for the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 291455 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 102.1W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 102.1W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 102.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 915 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ61 KNHC 291316 TCUEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 915 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...CENTER OF NARDA NOW NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and data from coastal stations in Mexico indicate that the center of Narda is northwest of the previous advisory position and it is now located close to the coast of Mexico near Zihuatanejo. The Mexican Navy station at Puerto Vicente recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (62 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). SUMMARY OF 915 AM CDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 101.7W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF NARDA NOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN LAZARO CARDENAS AND MANZANILLO... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 18.7, -103.1 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 11:40:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 09:29:39 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located about 100 miles west-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Narda are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291138 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 700 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 101.4W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 101.4 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (14 km/h). This motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, bringing Narda very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours unless the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area during the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 16.6, -101.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 08:33:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 09:29:39 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 420 FOPZ11 KNHC 290832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) 1(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 23(23) 12(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 38(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MANZANILLO 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 11 21(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) L CARDENAS 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Satellite images and Acapulco radar data show that the storm has become a little better organized with some evidence of banding features. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the southern semicircle of the circulation while the cyclone continues to experience some northeasterly shear. Based on data from a scatterometer overpass, the current intensity is set at 40 kt which is also the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast for Narda is problematic and uncertain, since the future strength of the cyclone depends on how much the cyclone will interact with the mountainous land mass of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Some of the models, such as the ECMWF and GFS, take the cyclone inland within the next 24 hours and do not show the system recovering from its land interaction in 24-48 hours. A little more strengthening should occur today, assuming the center remains offshore. The official intensity forecast assumes that the center will move along the coast within the next day or so, and this would cause some weakening and disruption of the circulation. The NHC intensity forecast is in fairly close agreement with the LGEM guidance. The center is not easy to locate, but my best estimate of initial motion is northwestward or 315/7 kt. Over the next couple of days, the tropical cyclone is likely to move generally northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. Later in the period, a trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula should cause the system to turn toward the north-northwest. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the corrected dynamical model consensus guidance. The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 26.5N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 27.5N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 101.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 101.0 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, bringing Narda very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours unless the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 16.0, -101.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 863 WTPZ21 KNHC 290831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 330SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 100.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 100SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 90SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 27.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 101.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290534 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 100.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 100.9 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, bringing Narda very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, if the center moves closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening could occur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NARDA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 15.9, -100.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 05:34:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 03:31:36 GMT