National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011449 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.0W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.6N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.8N 105.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 105.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 107.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Orlene, located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

South-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disturbed weather located about 700 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next several days as it moves slowly northeastward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 14:45:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:29:10 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Orlene has not changed much in organization during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing a small central dense overcast with ragged outer convective banding. Interestingly, a recent SSMI/S overpass indicates that, despite analyses that the shear is 5 kt or less, the convection under the overcast is a bit asymmetric and mainly occurring to the southwest and south of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are essentially unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. Orlene is forecast to be in a moist, low-shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 48 h. These conducive conditions, combined with the small inner core, should allow steady to rapid strengthening once the core convection becomes more symmetric. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in about 48 h. After that time, the global models are in excellent agreement that the cyclone should encounter strong southwesterly shear that is likely to cause quick weakening. The official forecast calls for a 60-kt intensity just before landfall, and this is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, there is still a chance that Orlene could be a hurricane at landfall if the shear is lighter than expected or the storm moves faster than currently forecast. The initial motion is still northwestward or 320/4 kt. Rawinsonde data shows a mid- to upper-level ridge over central Mexico to the northeast of Orlene, and a combination of rawinsonde data and water vapor imagery shows a developing mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. Orlene should turn northward and north-northeastward between these features during the next couple of days, with this general motion continuing for the rest of the forecast period. The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous forecast, calls for the system to pass west of Cabo Corrientes and near the Islas Marias in 48-60 h and then make landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico just after 96 h. This forecast is close to the consensus models, but slower than the GFS model. It should be noted that some of the ensemble guidance is forecasting the possibility that Orlene will get so strongly sheared that the northward motion will slow over the southern Gulf of California and keep the center offshore through 120 h. Watches will likely be required for portions of the western coast of Mexico and the Islas Marias on the next advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 16.1N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 849 FOPZ11 KNHC 301436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 24(29) 46(75) 1(76) X(76) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 1(39) X(39) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 6(50) X(50) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25(30) 2(32) X(32) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 17(27) 1(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301436 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND IN THE ISLAS MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.1W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 107.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.4N 106.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 106.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 107.1W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of western Mexico and in the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of Orlene. Watches will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Orlene is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to turn toward the north-northeast by Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 the center of Orlene was located near 16.1, -107.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

207
ABPZ20 KNHC 291727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Orlene, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific:
Shower activity associated with the remnants of Newton, located
about 1,300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, is minimal and environmental conditions are
no longer favorable for development. The system is expected to move
slowly westward over the far western portion of the eastern North
Pacific over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Orlene are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Orlene are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 14:49:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:35:08 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291444 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Orlene is getting better organized, with the formation of a small central dense overcast with an outer convective band in the northwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are 35-40 kt, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. Orlene is being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone reaches the western end of the ridge. The UKMET and ECMWF, which forecast less development, take the storm more westward south of Baja California, while the GFS and the Canadian, which forecast a stronger and more vertically deep storm, forecast Orlene to turn northward into the southern Gulf of California toward northwestern Mexico. Give the current trends and the forecast intensities, the track forecast leans towards the GFS/Canadian solution and shows Orlene turning northward and moving into northwestern Mexico between days 4-5. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for the 72 h or so. The majority of guidance, except the aforementioned ECMWF and UKMET, indicate steady strengthening during this time, and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. The intensities during the first 72 h have been increased to better match the trend of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, Orlene is likely to encounter increasing shear and a drier air mass, which should cause weakening. However, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models suggest the possibility that the cyclone will still be at hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico, and the new intensity forecast follows that scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291444 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 15(31) 4(35) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 18(32) 4(36) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 32(39) 17(56) 2(58) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 25(37) 8(45) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18) 15N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 14(21) 33(54) 4(58) X(58) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 15(35) 2(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 291444 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 108.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 ...ORLENE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 105.9W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of western Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Orlene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn to the north is forecast to occur on Friday, and that motion should continue over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Orlene is expected to become a hurricane by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ORLENE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 the center of Orlene was located near 15.1, -105.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
south of the southern coast of Mexico continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton are located about 1,100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The associated
shower activity has become a little better organized, and additional
slight development of the system is possible during the next day or
two. This system could could briefly become a tropical depression
again while it moves generally westward over the western portion of
the eastern North Pacific. Environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for additional development by the end of the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

906
ABPZ20 KNHC 271730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure located south of the southern coast of
Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the end of this week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton continue to produce disorganized bursts of
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next couple of days as it moves generally westward
over the western portion of the East Pacific basin. By late this
week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the southern
coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of this week while the system moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Newton, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Newton, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin