National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250545
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce limited
showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is
not expected while it slowly moves northward for the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A broad area of low pressure several hundred miles south-southwest
of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is generating
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. A tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Storm Kiko, which has moved into the central Pacific basin.
The next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center at 5 PM HST.

A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing limited showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it moves northward at 5 to 10 mph through Wednesday
and then becomes absorbed within a larger trough on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some development of this system is possible later this week while
it moves slowly northward or northeastward. This system is
likely to be absorbed over the weekend by a larger system that is
expected to develop near the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple of
hundred miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next
several days. An area of low pressure is likely to form along this
trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend
while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center under AWIPS header
HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be
available on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 20:52:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 21:45:07 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242051 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 Kiko is now a swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection in the face of 40 kt of southwest shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity was lowered to 35 kt, though ADT and ASCAT passes just coming in suggest this may be a bit generous. Strong southwest shear is expected to continue to prevent the development of persistent deep convection through the forecast period. This will allow the low-level center to turn westward, and then southwestward following the trade wind flow and weaken. The current forecast lies very close to the previous one. Without deep convection, Kiko's wind field should continue to steadily spin down. Kiko will be moving into the central Pacific basin this afternoon and subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 18.0N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 242049 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 242048 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KIKO BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 139.6W ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 139.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn from west-northwestward to west-southwestward is expected tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, Kiko will move into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression by this evening and should then degenerate into a remnant low by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster R Ballard

...KIKO BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Sep 24 the center of Kiko was located near 18.0, -139.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242047 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 139.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 139.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241749
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, which will move into the central Pacific basin this
afternoon.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it moves northward at 5 to 10 mph through Wednesday
and then becomes absorbed within a larger trough on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple of
hundred miles of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
several days. An area of low pressure is likely to form along this
trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend
while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in
a day or two. Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves slowly northward or northeastward. This system is
likely to be absorbed over the weekend by the larger system that is
expected to develop near the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:56:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:45:10 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241454 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 Forty to forty-five knots of south-southwesterly shear has caused Kiko's convection to become displaced from the low-level center by about 70 n mi. A blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the latest ADT, supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Kiko is heading for even stronger shear during the next 6-12 hours, which should lead to further degradation in the cyclone's structure and a quick decrease in its maximum winds. The GFS and ECMWF simulated infrared satellite fields suggest that all deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours, and as a result, the time of Kiko's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up to 36 hours in the official forecast. Dissipation is expected by day 4. Kiko's initial motion is northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone is moving between a mid-/upper-level low to its west and mid-level ridging to its northeast. However, once it loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex, Kiko is expected to turn westward (by 36 hours) and then west-southwestward (by 48 hours). Only minor adjustments to the NHC track forecast were required, and on the forecast track, Kiko should cross 140W into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241454 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241453 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 138.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 138.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KIKO WEAKENING... ...FINALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 138.9W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 138.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A gradual turn from west-northwestward to west-southwestward is expected tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, Kiko will move into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a tropical depression by tonight. It should then degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KIKO WEAKENING... ...FINALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Sep 24 the center of Kiko was located near 17.9, -138.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for
significant development while it moves little, and this system is
expected to merge with a larger system to the east in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico late this week where environmental conditions
appear conducive for subsequent development. A tropical depression
could form over the weekend while the system moves near the southern
or the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in
a couple of days. Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves erratically northward or northeastward, several
hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:43:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 09:45:16 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the center of Kiko is no longer in the middle of the central dense overcast. Instead, increasing shear has caused the low-level center to be displaced to the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Intensity estimates are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which agrees best with recent 40-45 kt ASCAT data. Kiko is moving northwestward at 9 kt. The storm is expected to turn to the west-northwest on Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to the west. By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west and eventually south-of-west as the shallower system is steered by the low-level trade winds. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, except adjusted southward on days 2-3. The storm should continue to weaken over the next few days due to persistent south-southwest shear, marginal water temperatures, and a dry mid-level environment. Guidance tonight has accelerated the transition into a non-convective remnant low, with everything now showing post-tropical status by 48 hours. The new forecast is lower than the previous one, following the trend in the models, and could be too slow in showing the storm's demise. Still, Kiko has been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.5N 138.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240838 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 1 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO HOPEFULLY ON THE WAY TO ITS FINAL DEMISE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 138.2W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 138.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest then west is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Kiko is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake