National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2022 17:43:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2022 15:22:23 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231453 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Satellite imagery indicated that Roslyn made landfall earlier this morning around 1120 UTC near Santa Cruz in the Mexican state of Nayarit. The maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be 105 kt and 958 mb, respectively. An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 71 kt and a gust of 108 kt within the past hour or so. The hurricane has moved farther inland and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt based on a standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to continue to occur today as Roslyn interacts with the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico and encounters strengthening vertical wind shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon and dissipate tonight or early Monday, if not sooner. Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should continue to accelerate across west-central Mexico towards the north-northeast for the next day or so along the northwest periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. A 24 hour position has been forecast for the sake of continuity, though it is expected that the low-level circulation will have dissipated by then. Key Messages: 1. Damaging winds will spread inland along the track of Roslyn over west-central mainland Mexico through late this afternoon. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 22.8N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 231452 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 231450 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUNTA MITA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS WELL AS THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 105.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 the center of Roslyn was located near 23.8, -104.4 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221756
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Roslyn, located about 155 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Oct 2022 17:51:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Oct 2022 15:23:25 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221751 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER NOW INVESTIGATING ROSLYN... ...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 106.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of El Roblito to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo * North of El Roblito to Mazatlan A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through midday today, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast this afternoon. Although some weakening is possible beginning tonight, Roslyn is expected to still be near or at major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the northern coast. Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER NOW INVESTIGATING ROSLYN... ...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 the center of Roslyn was located near 18.4, -106.6 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221440 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of a cold central dense overcast. Given the rate of intensification, the actual intensity is a bit of a moving target. However, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are currently in the 105-115 kt range, and based on the latest CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Roslyn. The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 330/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous advisory. Roslyn is expected to continue recurving around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The track guidance continues to indicate that the hurricane will pass just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, tonight, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall, Roslyn or its remnants are expected to accelerate toward the northeast over northern Mexico. The new forecast track has mainly noise-level adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening during the next 6-12 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Roslyn to strengthen some more during that time. After that, increasing southwesterly vertical shear and land interaction should cause some weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidentals. The intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate soon thereafter. However, both of these could occur earlier than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 18.0N 106.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 221440 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 84(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 52(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 25(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 34 X 17(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MAZATLAN 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 88(88) 7(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAN BLAS 50 X 49(49) 21(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SAN BLAS 64 X 20(20) 22(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) P VALLARTA 34 3 83(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) P VALLARTA 50 X 35(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) P VALLARTA 64 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MANZANILLO 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221439 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Oct 2022 17:49:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Oct 2022 15:22:27 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located a couple of hundred miles off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211746 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 ...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 104.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Punta Mita A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.8 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday, followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. While Roslyn has changed little in strength over the past several hours, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by late Saturday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 the center of Roslyn was located near 16.4, -104.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211456 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 Visible satellite imagery suggests that Roslyn is getting better organized, with the formation of a central dense overcast with overshooting tops near the center. A recent GMI overpass indicates these tops are related to a partial eyewall that has formed under the overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain near 55 kt, and based on these data the initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory. One note is that there seem to be a tongue of dry air wrapping cyclonically around the CDO from the northwest to southeast. It should be noted that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled due to mechanical issues. The recent satellite data suggest that the center is a little south of the previous track, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/6 kt. Despite this shift, there is little change in the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Roslyn is still expected to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level ridge that will migrate eastward across Mexico during the next couple of days. This will lead to the center passing near or a little west of Cabo Corrientes in about 36 h, followed by landfall in mainland Mexico. There is little change to either the forecast guidance or the official forecast track since the last advisory, and the new track lies near or just east of the various consensus models. Since Roslyn is developing a better defined inner core, its current environment of light shear and warm sea surface temperatures could allow for rapid intensification. One obstacle to that, though, is the dry air currently near the core. The GFS, HRWF, and HMON models forecast this dry air to get mixed out during the next 12-24 h, and based on this premise, the new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast in showing rapid strengthening to a peak intensity of 95 kt before landfall. After landfall, Roslyn is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and although the official forecast shows a remnant low over northern Mexico in 72 hours for continuity, Roslyn will likely dissipate before then. The new forecast requires a northward extension of the hurricane warning along the coast of Mexico. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on the next advisory. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico and will likely be extended northward later today. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.4N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211456 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 4( 6) 34(40) 44(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 36(42) 15(57) X(57) X(57) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 55(65) 7(72) X(72) X(72) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 28(32) 34(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 15(16) 22(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 6 27(33) 15(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MANZANILLO 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 211455 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.4W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.4W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 104.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently-upgraded Tropical Storm Roslyn, located a couple of
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Roslyn are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Roslyn are issued under WMO
header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven