National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 02:43:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 03:31:36 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Late afternoon visible satellite imagery and ship observations show that the disturbance's circulation has become better defined. In addition, there has been an increase in convective banding around the western portion of the system. As a result, the system is being classified as a tropical storm. The initial wind speed is maintained at 35 kt, which is in agreement with earlier scatterometer data, and the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Narda is located within an area of moderate northeasterly shear and is likely to interact with the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico on Sunday. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicated within the next 24 hours, followed by some weakening as the system moves near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain. If the system tracks to the right of the official forecast it would likely weaken and dissipate over southern Mexico, but if it remains farther west or just offshore, it could be stronger than indicated below. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the southeastern United States should continue to steer the disturbance northwestward during the next couple of days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both take the system inland within the next 24 hours, however the ensemble means favor a track near, but just offshore of the coast. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but the confidence after 36-48 hours is quite low due to the potential land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290241 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MANZANILLO 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 100W 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290241 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NARDA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 100.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 100.6 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing Narda very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, if the center moves closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening could occur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NARDA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Narda was located near 15.4, -100.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290241 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 100.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 120SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 90SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 23:44:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 21:31:41 GMT

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282344 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 100.3W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 100.3 West. The system has been meandering during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 15.1, -100.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282338
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E, located a little more than 100 miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 21:31:41 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:26 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282041 TCDEP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The large area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico has not been able to consolidate yet and still there is no evidence of a well-defined center. Satellite animation continue to suggest that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco, but it is still elongated. Latest ASCAT measured tropical-storm-force winds well south of the possible developing center. Since the large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in winds. The disturbance could become a tropical storm at any time later tonight or Sunday before it reaches the coast. However, if the system survives the high terrain of the state of Jalisco, it could gather some additional strength when it emerges in the Gulf of California and before the shear increases. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and a large portion of the circulation will be overland. This should result in weakening. The initial motion continues to be highly uncertain since the disturbance does not have a center good enough to track. However, a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close or over the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by the reliable models. As mentioned this morning, If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. In fact, this is the solution of this morning's GFS. Regardless of development, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.0N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 233 FOPZ11 KNHC 282040 PWSEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 100W 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 100W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...DISTURBANCE TAKING ITS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS HEADING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 100.0 West. The system has been meandering during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...DISTURBANCE TAKING ITS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS HEADING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 15.0, -100.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 282039 TCMEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 120SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 150SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 17:31:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 15:31:53 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281731 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system has moved very little during the past few hours, but it should begin to move toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) later today or tonight. This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, a tropical depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.9, -100.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.