National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Mon Nov 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Sun Nov 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Nov 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Nov 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Nov 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Nov 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Nov 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

042
ABPZ20 KNHC 291708
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

859
ABPZ20 KNHC 271714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located over west-central mainland Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 104.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF THE CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings south of San Blas. The Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Escuinapa has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over west-central Mexico through this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening and dissipate tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland through portions of west-central Mexico through late afternoon or early evening. Wind speeds atop hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of west-central Mexico: Upper coast of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Southeastern Sinaloa, southern Durango into southwestern Zacatecas: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of Mexico within the warning area should gradually subside this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2022 17:43:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2022 15:22:23 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231453 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Satellite imagery indicated that Roslyn made landfall earlier this morning around 1120 UTC near Santa Cruz in the Mexican state of Nayarit. The maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be 105 kt and 958 mb, respectively. An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 71 kt and a gust of 108 kt within the past hour or so. The hurricane has moved farther inland and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt based on a standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to continue to occur today as Roslyn interacts with the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico and encounters strengthening vertical wind shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon and dissipate tonight or early Monday, if not sooner. Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should continue to accelerate across west-central Mexico towards the north-northeast for the next day or so along the northwest periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. A 24 hour position has been forecast for the sake of continuity, though it is expected that the low-level circulation will have dissipated by then. Key Messages: 1. Damaging winds will spread inland along the track of Roslyn over west-central mainland Mexico through late this afternoon. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 22.8N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 231452 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI