National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located near Mazatlan, Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific within the next day or two.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301716 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO MAZATLAN... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 106.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Guaymas * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 106.6 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional change in strength is expected before Narda interacts with the coast of mainland Mexico. Weakening should begin on Tuesday as Narda moves along the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was reported at Mazatlan within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...NARDA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO MAZATLAN... As of 12:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 23.3, -106.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 17:16:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:31:34 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:00:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:31:34 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301459 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Recent microwave data and surface observations from Mexico indicate that the center of Narda is located just offshore of the west coast of mainland Mexico, north of Islas Marias. The cyclone continues to produce a large area of deep convection near and to the west of its center. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt, making Narda a tropical storm once again. An automated observing site near San Blas, Mexico recently reported a wind gust to 38 kt, and a pressure of 1002.8 mb was observed at Islas Marias earlier this morning. Some additional strengthening is possible today while Narda moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, however, interaction with land is likely to occur by Tuesday, and gradual weakening should begin by that time. If the center moves to the right of the NHC track forecast, landfall and weakening would occur much sooner. Narda is moving northwestward at 13 kt. The tropical storm should continue to move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States. Although the various global model ensemble means take Narda farther westward over the Gulf of California during the next couple of days, the operational ECMWF and UKMET models show the cyclone moving inland over mainland Mexico within the next day or so. This is the solution that the NHC track forecast leans toward, and it is possible that Narda will move onshore farther south than implied by the exact forecast track. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.5N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 25.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0000Z 27.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1200Z 28.4N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 450 FOPZ11 KNHC 301458 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 22(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 7 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MAZATLAN 34 38 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301458 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 106.4W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Topolobampo to Guaymas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Guaymas * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Weakening should begin by Tuesday as Narda interacts with the mountains of western Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently reported at San Blas, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...NARDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 22.5, -106.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301456 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO GUAYMAS * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 106.4W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 106.4W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.7N 109.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.2N 110.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.4N 111.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 106.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 600 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301155 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 600 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM NARDA SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 106.5W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 106.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). A pressure of 1002.8 mb (29.61 inches) was recently reported at Islas Marias. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...HEAVY RAINS FROM NARDA SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 21.8, -106.5 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 11:55:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:31:46 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301119
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Narda, located near Islas Marias, Mexico.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific within the next
day or two. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while
the system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 08:35:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:31:46 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Narda continues to produce very intense deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. However, this convection is not particularly well organized, with the main activity situated in the vicinity of Islas Marias. There is little evidence of banding features at this time. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. The tropical cyclone should move over very warm waters and in an environment of moderate southeasterly shear for the next couple of days. Due to the interaction of the circulation with the nearby land mass of southwestern Mexico, only slight strengthening is anticipated, however. This is consistent with the fact that none of the intensity guidance is very aggressive with the system. It should be noted that the NHC forecast is above practically all of the models. Although the center is not well defined, it appears to still be moving northwestward, or 315/15 kt. Narda is expected to continue moving along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone, with decreasing forward speed for the next day or two. A trough moving into the southwestern U.S. and northern Baja peninsula should cause the track to bend a bit to the right in 2-3 days until the system dissipates near the U.S.-Mexico Border. The official track forecast is just a little to the east of the previous one, and close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 106.4W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 21.5, -106.4 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300833 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 106.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH