National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 710 WTPZ22 KNHC 191436 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 128.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.9N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.9N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:35:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:35:59 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken as it heads toward the Central Pacific. Satellite images show a shrinking area of deep convection that is now generally confined to the northeast quadrant of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt, and even that seems generous. The weakening and very compact storm is surrounded by dry mid-level air. This stable environment, cool 25 C SSTs, and increasing wind shear should cause the rapid weakening trend to continue. Felicia is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days when it expected to be in an environment of about 40 kt of northwesterly shear and very dry air, which will likely cause all of the deep convection to dissipate. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and in line with the majority of the latest guidance. Felicia is moving westward at about 10 kt. A slightly faster westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next several days as Felicia, or its remnants, move in the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level high to its north. The NHC track forecast is just a tad south of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the current forecast, the weakening system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 ...FELICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 132.3W ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 132.3 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly faster westward or west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Felicia is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a remnant low in a few days. Felicia is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...FELICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Felicia was located near 16.3, -132.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Felicia, located over the far southwestern region of the basin, and
on Tropical Storm Guillermo, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 14:53:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Jul 2021 15:22:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161452 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Corrected 24-hour forecast position Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the slightly degraded aforementioned convective features. Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat, which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours. Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from 24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (<10 kt) vertical wind shear regime that Felicia will be moving through. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity models NOAA-HCCA and IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 161449 CCA PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 CORRECTED 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 74(75) 19(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 125W 50 X 38(38) 38(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 125W 64 X 10(10) 36(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 61(84) 2(86) 1(87) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 1(54) X(54) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) 9(58) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 445 WTPZ21 KNHC 161448 CCA TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 CORRECTED 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 121.6W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 121.6 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur by late tonight or early Saturday, with a westward motion expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, and Felicia could become a category 4 hurricane later this morning. Slow weakening is expected to begin by tonight, and continue through the weekend and into early next week. Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 the center of Felicia was located near 15.0, -121.6 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161106
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Felicia, located more than 900 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend and move westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph, a
few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Earlier this morning, an eye began to appear in satellite imagery. However, since that time the convection has eroded slightly over the southwestern portion of the circulation, making that feature somewhat obscured. This could be a sign that an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway. Although the eye is not readily apparent in satellite, Felicia has a well-defined inner core structure with persistent and very cold cloud tops surrounding much of the center. The Dvorak T-numbers continue to rise, and the latest blend of the available values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT support increasing the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory. Felicia continues to make a gradual turn to the left, and the initial motion is now 270/10 kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is foreast to shift to its northwest over the next day or so, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, Felicia should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. Rapid intensification (RI) has continued, and Felicia's winds have increased by 50 kt since early yesterday morning. Aside from a possible pause in the cyclone's intensification in the near-term due to the ERC, the environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have been supporting the strengthening should continue around the cyclone over the next 24 h. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the RI factors currently in place. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.2N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 195 FOPZ11 KNHC 151436 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 92 6(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 57 25(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 120W 64 12 26(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 56(80) 9(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 16(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 12(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 38(68) 2(70) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 1(34) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 34(47) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 118.6W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 118.6 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest is expected by Friday with this motion expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia has rapidly intensified over the past day or so, and additional strengthening is expected through early Friday. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 the center of Felicia was located near 15.2, -118.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Felicia, located about 750 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico in association with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto