National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 08:44:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 09:34:30 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 120843 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Recent proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center of Linda lies near the northwestern extent of the dense overcast, as its deep convection is being displaced southward by moderate northerly wind shear. Although its center was briefly partially exposed overnight, it appears that the center has recently moved a bit farther underneath the cirrus canopy. A 0318 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows several 50-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant of Linda. After accounting for some known undersampling issues of the instrument at higher wind speeds, this supports maintaining the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. This estimate is also consistent with a blend of the subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates received from TAFB (55 kt) and SAB (65 kt). After a brief west-southwest turn yesterday, Linda is now moving slowly west-northwestward at around 285/5 kt. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days as Linda moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward as the steering ridge strengthens to its north. Overall, the guidance is in good agreement on the track of Linda. The official NHC track forecast is shifted a bit north of the previous one, which brings it closer to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The cyclone is expected to pass near or south of Clarion Island on Friday night. The northerly wind shear that has plagued Linda for the past couple days is forecast to persist for another 24 h, then diminish slightly by this weekend. Otherwise, Linda will remain over very warm SSTs in a moist, unstable environment for the next couple days or so, which should favor at least some modest strengthening. However, the latest intensity guidance consensus is somewhat weaker than the previous cycle. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly downward, and it now lies near or between the normally reliable IVCN and HCCA aids. The forecast still shows Linda briefly peaking as an 85-kt hurricane in 60 h, in deference to the stronger HWRF and HMON solutions. Thereafter, gradually cooler SSTs and drier mid-tropospheric air along its track should induce a weakening trend through the rest of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.1N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 120840 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 12 83(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 110W 50 X 41(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 110W 64 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 62(72) 14(86) X(86) X(86) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 19(51) X(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 13(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 22(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 25(64) 1(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) X(30) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 22(40) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 120839 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 90SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 120839 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...LINDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 107.1W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Linda is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days or so, and Linda is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

...LINDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Linda was located near 14.1, -107.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 14:43:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 15:35:12 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 111442 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Despite a continuation of moderate deep-layer shear, Linda is becoming better organized. Upper-level outflow appears to be expanding over the system, but even more notably, an 1109 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed that a well-defined mid-level eye has formed. Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T3.5 from both TAFB and SAB, and given the significantly improved microwave structure, Linda's initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The latest fixes, including from the microwave pass, indicate that Linda is moving a little faster and more south of due west, or 265/10 kt. This motion is being caused by a large mid-level ridge located over Mexico, and the ridging is expected to maintain Linda on a westward and then west-northwestward track for the next 5 days. There is very tight clustering among the track models for the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast lies very close to the HCCA consensus aid. This new forecast has been shifted a bit to the left of the previous official forecast to account for the updated initial position. Linda will be moving through an environment of mixed favorability for strengthening. On the positive side, sea surface temperatures will hover around 28 degrees Celsius, mid-level moisture will remain high, and upper-level divergence should be strong for the next day or two. On the negative side, the deep-layer shear is not expected to abate much for several days. That being said, the system has still been able to strengthen, and the intensity models support further intensification. The NHC intensity forecast generally lies between the HCCA aid and the IVCN consensus, and brings Linda to hurricane strength tonight with a peak intensity occurring in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 13.8N 105.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 111441 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 16 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 3 33(36) 57(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 56(58) 8(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 35(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 65(73) 3(76) 1(77) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 1(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 25(35) 3(38) X(38) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 5(39) X(39) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 10(58) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 111441 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.9W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.9W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 111441 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...LINDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 105.9W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 105.9 West. Linda is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Linda is likely to become a hurricane by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LINDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Linda was located near 13.8, -105.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 14:38:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 15:29:20 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Shortwave infrared images show that the center of Kevin's broad circulation is exposed to the northeast of a persistent cluster of deep convection, resulting from 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly shear over the system. With Dvorak T-numbers holding steady at T3.0 from TAFB and T2.5 from SAB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Recent geostationary images and a 0943 UTC GCOM overpass warranted a slight adjustment to the initial position, which now makes the initial motion northwestward at 325/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric high located over northern Mexico is expected to keep Kevin on a northwestward to west-northwestward path for the next several days, which is shown by all the track models. Most differences among the models are speed related, with the ECMWF being one of the fastest models and the GFS one of the slowest. In general, the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids, but the initial position adjustment required a fairly noteworthy northeastward shift in the forecast track compared to the previous advisory. Kevin's center is just about ready to move over waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius and should be over waters as cold as 21 degrees in a couple of days. Also, the shear affecting the storm is only expected to diminish gradually, and these conditions should induce imminent weakening. In line with the latest intensity guidance, Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours and then become a remnant low in about 48 hours when it loses all of its deep convection. This scenario is shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...KEVIN ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 116.8W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 116.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by early Thursday and then a remnant low by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KEVIN ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Kevin was located near 21.0, -116.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111434 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 50SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Linda, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101153
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on newly formed
Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Latto