National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 14:35:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:40:43 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 171433 TCDEP2 Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 Linda has not changed much during the past several hours. The system still has characteristics of an annular hurricane with a large circular eye (a little more than 30 n mi in diameter) and a ring of deep convection completely surrounding that feature. The convection in the eyewall appears a little less symmetric than it was a few hours ago, however. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 75 kt. Even though Linda is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, research has proven that tropical cyclones that are characterized by an annular cloud pattern usually weaken more slowly than the climatological rate in the eastern Pacific, and we expect Linda to be in that category during the next day or so. Nonetheless, a combination of cool SSTs and drier air should induce a slow weakening trend. The models suggest that an increase in southerly shear is likely toward the end of the forecast period, and that could assist in the storm becoming post-tropical by then. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term and then falls in line with the majority of the guidance from days 3-5. Linda is moving nearly due westward at 265/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain anchored to the north of Linda, which should keep the storm on a westward to west-northwestward track during the next several days. The models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. Based on this prediction, Linda is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 60-72 h and be located to the north or northeast of the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 171433 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 2 19(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 44(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 171433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...LINDA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 127.4W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 127.4 West. Linda is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with that motion forecast to continue through the remainder of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...LINDA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Aug 17 the center of Linda was located near 17.5, -127.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 128 WTPZ22 KNHC 171432 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 127.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 127.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 126.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Linda, located more than 950 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 161453 TCDEP2 Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 There has been little notable change in Linda's structure on satellite imagery. The hurricane continues to possess annular characteristics, with a well-defined warm eye up to +15 C surrounded by a ring of -60 to -65 C cloud top temperatures associated with the eyewall. The eyewall was also well-defined on a recent 1003 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass. The most recent subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB were T5.5/102 kt and T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was T5.1/92 kt. Thus, Linda is being maintained as a 90-kt hurricane for this advisory, though this might be a bit on the conservative side. The initial motion estimate continues off to the west-southeast, at 255/8 kt. The most recent track forecast is mostly just an update of the previous one. Linda is expected to gradually make a rightward turn from the west-southwest to the west-northwest as a strong mid-level ridge to the north shifts its orientation. The latest NHC track forecast remains is good agreement with the track consensus guidance, blending the TVCN and HCCA aids. Linda remains in a very low wind shear environment, with SHIPS guidance diagnosing less than 5-kt of shear over the hurricane currently. Even though sea-surface temperatures remain only marginally warm along the Linda's forecast track, its continued annular structure argues for only very gradual weakening over the next 48 hours. Afterwards, Linda will cross over the 26 C isotherm into cooler waters, and a faster rate of weakening is anticipated after that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast over the first couple of days remains higher than the majority of the model guidance, and is closest to the ECMWF forecast. After Linda begins to move over cooler waters in 60 h, the intensity forecast is brought back down towards the intensity consensus. At the end of the forecast period, Linda is expected to become a post-tropical gale once deep organized convection ceases, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF simulated brightness temperature at that time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.6N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 18.5N 130.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 21.6N 141.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 22.6N 146.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin/Brennan

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:49:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 15:40:46 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 161448 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 30(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 58(62) 2(64) X(64) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BRENNAN

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 161447 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...LINDA MAINTAINING INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 123.7W ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Linda was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 123.7 West. Linda is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn back toward the west is forecast tonight, followed by a west- northwestward motion beginning by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Linda is expected to maintain hurricane strength through Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brennan

...LINDA MAINTAINING INTENSITY... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Aug 16 the center of Linda was located near 17.9, -123.7 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 161447 TCMEP2 HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.6N 124.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N 130.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 21.6N 141.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 146.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 123.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BRENNAN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 14:31:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 14:31:46 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121431 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 A little bit of convection continues to persist about 200 n mi to the southwest of Kevin's center, but at that distance, it is not considered organized in relation to the cyclone. In fact, Kevin has had this structure for a good 18 hours or so, and it has therefore degenerated into a remnant low. Based on last evening's ASCAT passes, it is assumed that winds as high as 30 kt are still occurring within the circulation. However, the center will be moving over waters colder than 23 degrees Celsius very soon, so a gradual decrease in the winds is expected over the next couple of days. Dissipation of the remnant low in expected in about 3 days. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/12 kt. The remnant low is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the United States and Mexico, which should cause a west-northwestward or northwestward motion until dissipation. There is very little spread in the track guidance, and this last NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one. This is the last advisory being issued for Kevin. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 23.2N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121430 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 30N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 121430 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 120.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121430 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...KEVIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 120.6W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 120.6 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are reaching the west coast of Baja California Sur but will gradually subside today. However, another round of swells is expected to reach southern portions of Baja California Sur on Friday from Linda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...KEVIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Kevin was located near 23.2, -120.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Kevin, located several hundred miles
west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Linda, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg