National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 302045 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.1W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.1W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.1N 107.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 103.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 302045 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 62 32(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA CLARION 50 5 50(55) 3(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 64 1 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 3 35(38) 12(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 115W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 302045 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Adrian Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...ADRIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 112.9W ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Adrian was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 112.9 West. Adrian is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next few days, and Adrian is forecast to become post-tropical on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Adrian are affecting portions of the west-central coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ADRIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 the center of Adrian was located near 17.7, -112.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 302045 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.2N 113.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 116.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.7N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.7N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Adrian, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently
upgraded Hurricane Beatriz, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 292055 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 The cyclone's satellite presentation, at least in visible imagery, has improved markedly through the day, and the low-level center had become apparent in a relatively cloud-free region (which has recently become obscured) surrounded by developing deep convection. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB (with similar objective numbers), so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, with the cyclone now designated as Tropical Storm Beatriz. Beatriz is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/10 kt, along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico. This ridge is forecast to weaken a bit during the next few days, and Beatriz is therefore expected to move northwestward for the next 4 days or so. The track guidance has continued to shift to the right, closer to the coast of Mexico, and some models (in particular the ECMWF and HCCA) bring the center inland in about 24-36 hours. The NHC track forecast has been shifted to the east as well, and now shows the center of Beatriz grazing the coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in the next 24-48 hours. It is important to remember that Beatriz's oblique angle of approach to the southwestern coast of Mexico makes it difficult to know exactly where the center might come onshore, if at all, and therefore a larger-than-normal part of the coastline is at risk of some effects from the storm. Beatriz is now expected to rapidly intensify during the next 24 hours in an environment of low shear and abundant moisture, and over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius. Following the trend from this morning, the intensity guidance shows significant strengthening in the short term, and the NHC intensity forecast has been raised to the high end of the guidance, closest to the HAFS-A and HCCA solutions at 24 hours. After that time, Beatriz's intensity will largely depend on if the center reaches land. Based on the official track forecast's proximity to land, intensification is shown through 36 hours, with weakening thereafter. Faster weakening is anticipated near the end of the forecast period due to drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures, and global model guidance suggests that Beatriz could degenerate into a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane on Friday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in those areas Friday and Saturday. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 15.0N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 15.9N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.2N 102.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.7N 104.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 20.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 20.8N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 22.5N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 23.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Jun 2023 20:55:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Jun 2023 21:29:07 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 292054 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 22(39) X(39) X(39) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 21(21) 22(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 48(49) 11(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 21(21) 11(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X 51(51) 18(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) L CARDENAS 50 X 14(14) 10(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) L CARDENAS 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 47(47) 4(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 292054 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 99.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 99.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 99.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.9N 100.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 102.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.7N 104.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.8N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.6N 107.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.5N 109.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 99.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 292054 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beatriz Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 99.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Zihuatanejo to Playa Perula. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Playa Perula Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the west-central coast of Mexico and in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches may be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 99.4 West. Beatriz is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight, with a decrease in speed occurring over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move very near or along the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beatriz is likely to become a hurricane on Friday. Beatriz is forecast to be a hurricane while it moves near portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beatriz can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area Friday and Friday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area through early Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Through Sunday morning, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from Oaxaca west to Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Beatriz are forecast to build and spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 the center of Beatriz was located near 15.0, -99.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Jun 2023 20:47:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Jun 2023 21:22:52 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 967 WTPZ41 KNHC 292046 TCDEP1 Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 A ragged eye briefly emerged in visible satellite imagery today, but it has once again become obscured by the central dense overcast of Adrian. It appears that the hurricane is struggling with some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment. A dry slot is wrapping around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and earlier SSMIS microwave data showed a weakness in the inner-core convection around the eyewall. The 18 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T4.5/77 kt, while the objective ADT and SATCON estimates are in the 65-70 kt range. A blend of these data support keeping the initial intensity at 75 kt for this advisory. The vertical wind shear is forecast to gradually increase over Adrian during the next several days, which is expected to induce a weakening trend that is supported by all the available intensity guidance. The official NHC forecast remains near or just above the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery, the updated NHC forecast shows Adrian becoming post-tropical at day 3, as it appears likely to lose all deep convection over cooler waters and within a drier and stronger shear environment. While the official forecast carries a remnant low through day 5, it could be near dissipation by the end of the period. The track of Adrian today has been to the right of previous forecasts, and its initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/6 kt. The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward during the next few days while being steered by a high-pressure ridge to its northeast. The updated NHC forecast has again been adjusted to the right of the previous one, and it generally lies between the TVCE and HCCA aids. As the shallow remnant low spins down later in the forecast period, it is expected to turn more westward within the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.2N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.6N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z 18.7N 118.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292044 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 1 8( 9) 45(54) 14(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292044 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Adrian Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023 ...ADRIAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 110.7W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Adrian was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 110.7 West. Adrian is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, and weakening is forecast to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Adrian are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ADRIAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 the center of Adrian was located near 16.4, -110.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292043 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 114.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

250
ABPZ20 KNHC 291739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Adrian, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Two-E, located about 150 miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2023 20:38:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2023 21:22:46 GMT