Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 4

3 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 373 WTPZ44 KNHC 261447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite images show that deep convection embedded within the sprawling circulation of the depression is gradually becoming better organized, and 91-GHz SSMIS data from 1117 UTC showed improved curvature to the bands, especially within the western semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates are now a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are running a little higher. Therefore, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Nora with 35-kt winds. The microwave data, as well as first-light visible imagery, suggest that the center may be consolidating or re-forming a little farther east of where we had been tracking it. Nora is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (296/6 kt), steered by a strong mid-level ridge located over the southern United States. This ridge is expected to dissolve over the next 24 hours as a shortwave trough moves across the Rocky Mountains, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest through the weekend. Most of the differences among the track models still appear to be related to the initial location of Nora's center. The GFS continues to show the system having multiple low-level vortices, with a dominant one forming well to the east and moving inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico as early as late Friday, and many more GEFS ensemble members show a similar scenario compared to yesterday. The HWRF and HMON are also in the camp of bringing Nora's center inland over Mexico. Other models, including the ECMWF (and most of its ensemble members), the UKMET, and the consensus aids, still show Nora's center staying just offshore. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward, primarily due to the adjustment of the initial position, and shows Nora's center very close to the coast of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. If Nora's center re-forms, then additional shifts in the track forecast will be likely. By early next week, Nora is likely to head towards Baja California Sur, but here is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact track at that time. Moderate northeasterly vertical shear continues to affect Nora, but this shear is expected to decrease to 10 kt or less in 36-48 hours. In addition, the storm will be moving over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius and through an environment of high mid-level moisture. These factors should allow for continued strengthening, although the system's large size could be one limiting factor in how fast that strengthening happens. Nora is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico in 2-3 days. However, the intensity forecast, especially on days 3-5, hinges on whether or not the center moves inland. If it does not, Nora will have greater opportunity to strengthen while it heads toward the Baja California Peninsula. Since several of the intensity models assume a scenario where Nora moves inland, the NHC intensity forecast more closely follows the no-land versions of the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS models through day 4 to be consistent with what is shown in the track forecast. Given the high uncertainty in Nora's future track, and its roughly shore-parallel path, a larger-than-normal hurricane watch area has been issued for the southwestern coast of Mexico by the Mexican government. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by late Saturday while it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.5N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

3 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 20(47) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 22(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 22(53) 2(55) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) X(27) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 105W 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 31(36) 2(38) X(38) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 28(51) 1(52) X(52) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 5(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 4

3 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. WARNINGS OR ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 100.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 4

3 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM NORA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 100.8W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nora. Warnings or additional watches will likely be required later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 100.8 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to begin overnight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and be very near the coast on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane by late Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Friday or Friday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)

3 years 10 months ago
...TROPICAL STORM NORA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Nora was located near 12.5, -100.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

3 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 26 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E, located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

3 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph, offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

3 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 571 FOPZ13 KNHC 231432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 53 8(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 20N 115W 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 2

3 years 10 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Marty is now a sheared tropical cyclone owing to northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, which has displaced the bulk of the deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -80C, into the western semicircle. The low-level center is estimated be located near the northeastern edge of the sharp convective cloud shield. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and an objective estimate of T2.6/37 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion remains westward or 280/13 kt. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of Marty is forecast by the global and regional models to remain entrenched across the eastern Pacific basin, keeping Marty moving in a general westward direction for the next couple of days. On days 3 and 4, the ridge is forecast build southward slightly, nudging the cyclone in a west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly north, or right, of the previous advisory track, and is also a little south of the tightly packed consensus track models which have shifted northward on this cycle. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting Marty is forecast to gradually decrease to 10 kt or less and also become easterly during the next 24-36 hours while the cyclone remains over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26 deg C or greater. These favorable conditions should allow for at least slight strengthening during that time. Although the shear is expected to remain low through the remainder of the forecast period, Marty will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass. Those unfavorable environmental conditions should combine to erode the central deep convection and weaken the cyclone on days 3 and 4. Marty is forecast to become a depression on Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. The official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous NHC forecast, and is about 5 kt above all of the available intensity guidance through 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 2

3 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.4W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 60SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.4W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Marty Public Advisory Number 2

3 years 10 months ago
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 ...MARTY PASSING TO THE NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 112.4W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.4 West. Marty is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today or tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

3 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Marty, located more than 200 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of disturbed weather located just south of the coast of
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this week offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico while the system moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marty are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Marty are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 34

3 years 11 months ago
Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 181436 TCDEP2 Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 500 AM HST Wed Aug 18 2021 Satellite images indicate that Linda has been maintaining its intensity over the past 12 h or so. The hurricane has begun to lose some of its annular characteristics, as cloud tops in the northern semicircle are warmer than in the southern semicircle. However, the eye remains clear, and the overall structure has not changed much in the last 6 h. Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB were both T-5.0/90 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 90 kt for this advisory. Linda is currently over SSTs near 26C, but SSTs along the path of the cyclone will decrease to below 25C in about 12 h, then remain in the 24-25C range during the 12 to 48 h period. Vertical wind shear will remain low through 48 h, but mid-level relative humidity will decrease and become very dry over the next 48 h. Despite the favorable dynamics through 48 h, the unfavorable thermodynamics will likely cause weakening to below hurricane strength by 48 h. By 72 h, wind shear is forecast to increase and become strong by day 4 as Linda approaches a potent upper-level trough located to the northwest of Oahu. This will ultimately lead to the loss of deep convection, despite a slight increase in water temperatures along the cyclone's path at that time. Linda is forecast to become a post-tropical gale by Saturday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the DSHP statistical-dynamical guidance. The initial motion is 280/11, which is unchanged from 6 h ago. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. A well-established subtropical ridge should steer Linda in a westward to west-northwestward fashion during the next 5 days. The new NHC forecast track is virtually unchanged from the previous one and is in best agreement with the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Linda is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific in about 36 h and is expected to pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands as a post-tropical gale late Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.2N 131.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.9N 133.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 19.7N 136.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 20.3N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.8N 142.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 145.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 21.6N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/1200Z 22.6N 152.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Linda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

3 years 11 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 181432 PWSEP2 HURRICANE LINDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LINDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 24 67(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 135W 50 1 31(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 135W 64 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 77(80) 6(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 43(43) 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 23(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

3 years 11 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 18 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Linda, located about 1400 miles west of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 9 months ago
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