National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Jul 2023 20:36:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Jul 2023 21:22:51 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Adrian continues to weaken. The low-level center is decoupled from a limited area of active convection over the western portion of the circulation. Adrian is passing just to the north of Clarion Island, and a Mexican Navy automated weather station has recently reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a gust of 48 kt. The objective and subjective satellite estimates have continued to fall this afternoon, with T3.0 Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT, AiDT, and SATCON objective estimates between 47-53 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. The storm is still moving west-northwestward at around 300/6 kt. A gradual turn toward the west is expected over the next couple of days as the vortex spins down and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. Further weakening is expected due to continued easterly shear, decreasing SSTs, and a drier and more stable air mass along the forecast track. The official NHC forecast now shows Adrian degenerating to a remnant low in 24 h, with dissipation early next week. This updated forecast is very similar to the previous one with no other notable changes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.7N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.1N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z 19.9N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 20.0N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 478 FOPZ11 KNHC 012035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 382 WTPZ21 KNHC 012034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 115.0W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 115.0W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.1N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 383 WTPZ31 KNHC 012034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 ...ADRIAN PASSING JUST NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 115.0W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 115.0 West. Adrian is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the west during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Adrian is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automated weather station on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 55 mph (89 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ADRIAN PASSING JUST NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 1 the center of Adrian was located near 18.7, -115.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Jul 2023 18:13:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Jul 2023 18:13:19 GMT

Issued at 1800 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 011812 PWSEP2 REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 1800 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 AT 1800Z THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 011812 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Beatriz Special Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 ...BEATRIZ DISSIPATES OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 106.2W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings for the west-central coast of mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite-derived wind data indicate the Beatriz no longer has a surface circulation and has dissipated. At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the remnants of Beatriz were located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 106.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), but are expected to slow down and meander over the mouth of the Gulf of California during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Monday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches, is expected across portions of southern and western Mexico from Colima northwest to Sinaloa and Durango in association with the remnants of Beatriz. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Beatriz are expected to diminish along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Beatriz please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...BEATRIZ DISSIPATES OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 the center of Beatriz was located near 20.7, -106.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1800 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 685 WTPZ22 KNHC 011810 TCMEP2 REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 1800 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 106.2W AT 01/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 106.2W AT 01/1800Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 106.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 011807 TCDEP2 Remnants Of Beatriz Special Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 A just-received ASCAT pass indicates that Beatriz has dissipated. There is no longer a surface circulation, and the maximum winds are around 25 kt, associated with a squall line that recently moved northward across Las Islas Marias. As a result, this special advisory will be the last advisory on this system. The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings along the coast of west-central Mexico and Las Islas Marias. For additional information on the remnants, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1800Z 20.7N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ 12H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

018
ABPZ20 KNHC 011759
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Adrian, located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and
has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Beatriz, located
near the coast of west-central Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles off
the coast of southern Mexico during the latter part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Jun 2023 20:47:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Jun 2023 21:22:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Jun 2023 20:47:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Jun 2023 21:29:02 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 095 WTPZ42 KNHC 302046 TCDEP2 Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Beatriz a couple of hours ago and measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 84 kt and SFMR surface winds around 70 kt, and based on that data, Beatriz's initial intensity is 75 kt. Since that time, the eye which had become apparent in satellite imagery has become obscured, and it's possible that the hurricane's structure is beginning to be affected by the nearby mountainous terrain of Mexico. Beatriz continues to move northwestward, or 305/11 kt, and that general motion should continue for the next 36 hours or so while the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. On this trajectory, Beatriz will continue to graze the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next 24 hours, but any wobble to the right of the forecast track could bring the center inland during that time. If Beatriz survives the next 36 hours, another mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to build over the southwestern United States, causing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then westward and slow down on days 2 and 3. There is a fair amount of model spread during that period, and the updated NHC track forecast is closest to the GFS, TVCE, and HCCA aids, nudged a bit to the right of the previous forecast. Beatriz is expected to remain a hurricane during the next 24 hours if its center remains over water, but the mountainous terrain could cause some slow weakening regardless. After 36 hours, increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident atmosphere are expected to contribute to faster weakening as Beatriz moves away from west-central Mexico. Most of the global models, with the exception of the GFS, dissipate the circulation by day 3, so the new NHC forecast now shows Beatriz degenerating into a remnant low by day 3, with dissipation occurring by day 4. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next day or so, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday afternoon. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.8N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 20.1N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 21.1N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 22.0N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 094 WTPZ41 KNHC 302046 TCDEP1 Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The satellite structure of Adrian looked its best shortly after the time of the previous advisory. Since then, the eye has become obscured by clouds in visible satellite imagery. Although deep convection still surrounds the ragged eye, infrared cloud top temperatures have been gradually warming, and the central dense overcast has become more asymmetric over the past few hours. It appears that vertical wind shear is finally taking a toll on the hurricane, and the objective satellite estimates have leveled off or begun to decrease this afternoon. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, in best agreement with a blend of recent UW-CIMSS SATCON, ADT, and AiDT estimates. Adrian is forecast to cross the 26 deg C SST isotherm tonight and move over 23 deg C SSTs within the next couple of days. In addition, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate easterly shear that should continue to disrupt its vertical organization. Therefore, weakening is anticipated during the next several days. The global and regional models indicate that the cyclone will struggle to produce organized convection by Sunday. Therefore, the official NHC forecast shows remnant low status at 48 h and dissipation by day 4. The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 310/6 kt. A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days as Adrian is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States. As the cyclone weakens and spins down, it should turn westward within the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates. Based on the latest track guidance and consensus aids, the updated NHC forecast has once again been nudged to the right of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.7N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.7N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 19.1N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 03/0600Z 19.7N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z 19.7N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 302046 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BEATRIZ WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 28(28) 35(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 1 11(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 34 1 32(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 88 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 17 20(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 50 74 5(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MANZANILLO 64 31 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 302046 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beatriz Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BEATRIZ A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 103.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Zihuatanejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beatriz was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.1 West. Beatriz is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move near or over portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Beatriz is then expected to turn west-northwestward and move away from the west-central coast of Mexico Sunday and Monday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Beatriz is expected to remain a hurricane during the next day if its center remains just offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Weakening is expected Saturday through Monday once Beatriz begins to move away from west-central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beatriz can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch areas Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: Through Monday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches, is expected across portions of southern and western Mexico from Guerrero northwest to Sinaloa and Durango within, and around the periphery of, Hurricane Beatriz. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Beatriz are forecast to spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BEATRIZ A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH SATURDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 the center of Beatriz was located near 17.8, -103.1 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.