National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 08:46:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 09:29:06 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 08:45:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 09:34:45 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100844 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Deep convection associated with Kevin is still displaced well south and southwest of its exposed low-level center by strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the center is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle of the cyclone. Based on several 35-kt wind vectors noted in the latest scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Satellite imagery indicates that Kevin has taken a northward jog overnight, and its estimated initial motion is now northwest or 305/8 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Based on the initial motion adjustment and guidance trends, the official NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward from the previous one, although it still lies a little to the south of the TVCE and HCCA aids. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next day or so, which should limit its ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By the time that the wind shear diminishes, the cyclone will be passing over much cooler waters in a drier, more stable environment. Thus, little change in strength is expected in the near-term, followed by weakening beginning on Wednesday. Overall, the latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. By 72 h, GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.1N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 113.3W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion with little change in forward speed is expected over the next several days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening beginning on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the southern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 the center of Kevin was located near 18.1, -113.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 475 FOPZ11 KNHC 100844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 88 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 28(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 115W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100844 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 100843 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 12(12) 44(56) 8(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 105W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 40(45) 8(53) 1(54) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 2(24) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 38(49) 3(52) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 32(67) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 30(51) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 100843 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Over the past several hours, showers and thunderstorms have showed increased signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. An ASCAT-B pass around 0330 UTC revealed that the low has developed a well-defined center and is producing 25 to 30-kt winds, with some higher wind vectors flagged as rain contaminated within the deep convection occurring to the south and west of the center. The system has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical depression, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. The estimated motion of the depression is west-northwest, or 290/7 kt. The system is expected to generally move west-northwestward to westward over the next several days, as it is steered by a ridge to its north and northeast. This track is roughly parallel to, but well offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the official NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The depression is located in a moist, unstable environment with ample oceanic heat content to fuel strengthening during the next few days. However, moderate to strong northerly vertical wind shear will likely prevent rapid intensification of this system in the short term. Nonetheless, the intensity guidance unanimously supports strengthening, and this system is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Continued strengthening is forecast through the rest of the week and into the weekend, and the cyclone could reach hurricane strength by Thursday. The official NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN consensus aid and shows the system's intensity peaking on days 4 and 5, when the wind shear is forecast to diminish while the cyclone remains over warm SSTs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 13.7N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 14.3N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 14.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 14.7N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 18.2N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 100843 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 100.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.7N 102.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.3N 103.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.5N 105.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.7N 106.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.2N 113.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 100.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 100843 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 100.8W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slight westward turn is forecast on Wednesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next several days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 the center of Twelve-E was located near 13.0, -100.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

932
ABPZ20 KNHC 091135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers
and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next couple of days. This system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph
through midweek, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 08:37:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 09:22:35 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 320 WTPZ41 KNHC 090836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center lies near the edge of the dense overcast, which has a sharp border in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The associated deep convection is displaced well to the southwest of Kevin's partially exposed center. Recent scatterometer data only show 25 to 30-kt winds near the center, but the full southwestern quadrant where the most intense convection is occurring was not sampled. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the subjective final Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. This estimate could still be generous, however. The cyclone has turned west-northwestward during the past 12 h, and its estimated motion is now 290/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged, as Kevin is expected to move west-northwestward for most of the forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit northward again this cycle, following the trend of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Although Kevin has been embedded within a favorable thermodynamic environment, 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly shear has thus far limited its rate of strengthening. This shear is expected to persist for the next couple of days, so it seems likely that Kevin will continue to struggle intensifying, despite warm SSTs and a moist, unstable environment. By the time the vertical wind shear diminishes, Kevin will have gained enough latitude that the underlying SSTs will be unfavorable for further strengthening. The new intensity guidance is much lower than previous cycles, and so the latest NHC intensity forecast has been reduced by 5 to 10 kt at all forecast hours. Thus, Kevin is no longer forecast to become a hurricane. By day 5, the system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low over sub-22 deg C waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 6( 6) 64(70) 4(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 30(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 2(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 110.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A little strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, followed by a slow weakening trend thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 16.3, -110.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 274 WTPZ21 KNHC 090834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 14:35:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 15:22:35 GMT