National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 789 WTPZ41 KNHC 272218 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The low pressure system located a few hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico has quickly become better organized since last night, in terms of both its center definition and convective structure. ASCAT passes received a few hours ago indicated that the low has a well-defined center, and the system is already producing winds of around 40 kt. Based on this, advisories are being initiated on Adrian, the first tropical cyclone (and named storm) of the 2023 eastern Pacific season. With Adrian's center only recently forming, the initial motion is an uncertain 280/13 kt. A weakening subtropical ridge stretching across northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer Adrian generally westward during the next 3 days, but with its forward speed gradually decreasing during that time. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement during this period. There is significantly more uncertainty after day 3, and Adrian is expected to slow down further and turn toward the northwest and north due to (1) a developing mid- to upper-level low west of the Baja California peninsula and (2) possible interaction with another weather system to its east closer to the coast of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids on days 4 and 5. Relatively low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29 degrees Celsius are likely to foster strengthening. In fact, some of the rapid intensification (RI) indices suggest that RI could occur, and the NHC forecast shows fast strengthening during the next couple of days. In general, the official intensity forecast is above the intensities of the hurricane regional models since they don't seem to be initializing the storm's structure very well. Model guidance suggests that moderate to strong easterly shear could develop over Adrian in about 3 days, with the storm also reaching cooler waters by around days 4 and 5. Therefore, weakening is indicated in the forecast toward the end of the forecast period. Adrian's genesis marks the second-latest formation of the first named storm during the eastern Pacific hurricane season, after Tropical Storm Agatha of 2016 which formed on July 2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 15.3N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 15.4N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.4N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.5N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 15.6N 111.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 16.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2023 20:40:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2023 21:22:44 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 272038 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 23(23) 56(79) 5(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 110W 50 X 4( 4) 43(47) 5(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 1(18) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 8(29) 5(34) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 31(36) 10(46) 3(49) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 272037 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.4N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.5N 110.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.6N 111.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 272037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 ...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 106.0W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 106.0 West. Adrian is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Adrian is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 the center of Adrian was located near 15.3, -106.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Satellite wind data received within the past hour indicate that the
low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has become much better organized, and it
appears that a tropical storm is forming. Advisories will be
initiated on this system at 2 PM PDT. This system is expected to
move westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days, away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

746
ABPZ20 KNHC 261751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southern and Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
along a surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of this
week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is associated with an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week while it moves slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern
coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity remains
disorganized, but environmental conditions still appear generally
favorable for gradual development of this broad system. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle part of this week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so
several hundred miles south of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
to latter part of this week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward,
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
portion of next week several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore
of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is expected to form early next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for development of this system early next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP90):
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the southern
tip of Baja California. Some slow development of this system
remains possible during the next day or two while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Thereafter, the environment
is expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

026
ABPZ20 KNHC 171747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest
of southern Mexico. Some slow development is possible during the
next two to three days while the system moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph. However, the system is then expected to move into
a more unfavorable environment by the middle portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system thereafter while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the next day
or so while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
By this weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some slow development of this system thereafter while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of Baja California. Some slow development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By this
weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system thereafter while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch