National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 14:49:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 15:22:50 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201449 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight, Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. The latest estimated motion continues to be south of due west but a little faster, at 260/14 kt. Felicia is primarily being steered by a large subtropical ridge to its north, which should maintain the cyclone on a west-southwest heading over the remainder of its lifespan. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one, but is a touch faster, in agreement with the most recent GFS and ECMWF forecasts. On the latest forecast track, Felicia is expected to move into the central Pacific basin later today, just after 2100 UTC. Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia's large-scale environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection near its center. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Felicia weakening into a tropical depression later today and then degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough while moving well south of the Hawaiian islands by 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.8N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 201447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 201446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 ...FELICIA FADING FAST BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 138.0W ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 138.0 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected and Felicia is expected to become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

...FELICIA FADING FAST BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Jul 20 the center of Felicia was located near 15.8, -138.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 001 WTPZ21 KNHC 201445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 137.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 138.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 14:40:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 15:29:00 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 201440 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 A small burst of convection formed around 12Z, and it's just large enough to hold on to Guillermo as a 30-kt tropical depression. This small area of convection is located in the northeastern quadrant, and it likely won't last long as the cyclone remains embedded in a very dry and stable air mass and over cool 24 C waters. Guillermo should degenerate into a remnant low later today, assuming the deep convection dissipates. The continued influences of dry air and cool waters should cause the weak system to spin down, and it should ultimately dissipate in a few days prior to reaching the Central Pacific basin. The tropical depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A general west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days as Guillermo, or its remnants, remains embedded in the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast is just a tad to the north of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1200Z 18.2N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 17.5N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 16.9N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 16.4N 138.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 201439 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 201439 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Guillermo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 ...GUILLERMO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 125.0W ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Guillermo was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 125.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Guillermo is expected to become a remnant low later today with dissipation in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...GUILLERMO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 the center of Guillermo was located near 19.2, -125.0 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 201438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.2N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201109
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Felicia, located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Depression Guillermo, located over
900 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191438 CCA TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 131.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 132.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:38:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jul 2021 14:38:30 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 191437 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Guillermo's satellite presentation has continued to deteriorate over the past several hours, although a new, small deep convective burst has developed just to the southeast of the circulation center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a rather elongated (west to east) and ill-defined circulation with fragmented bands in the southeast quadrant. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt and is based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. Guillermo is moving over cooler (about 25C) water and into a progressively more stable and drier surrounding environment. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate that moderate west-northwesterly shear should also contribute to the cyclone's degeneration to a remnant low on Wednesday night. The intensity forecast now shows Guillermo becoming a remnant low sooner than the previous advisory and conforms with a consensus of the large-scale models and the SHIPS forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt. A subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should influence a generally westward motion through dissipation at day 5. A few of the global models are now showing the lower levels of the ridge building some to the east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands which could induce a west-southwestward motion, or slightly left of due west, around mid-period. The NHC forecast is once again adjusted a bit to the left of the previous one and is based on the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.1N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 18.6N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 18.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 17.9N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 17.9N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 17.9N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 191437 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072021 1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 191437 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Guillermo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 ...GUILLERMO WEAKENS FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 117.8W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 117.8 West. Guillermo is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Guillermo is forecast to become a depression on Tuesday, if not sooner, and degenerate to a remnant low on Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GUILLERMO WEAKENS FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION SOON... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Guillermo was located near 19.1, -117.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.