National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311443 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Agatha Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 The mountainous terrain of southern Mexico continues to take a toll on Agatha. Although a fairly well-defined mid-level circulation is still evident in satellite imagery, the low-level center has dissipated over southern Mexico. Therefore, this will be the final advisory on Agatha. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and continued weakening should occur today. The remnants are moving northeastward or 045/7 kt and this general motion should persist for the next 48 h or so. Deep convection, with heavy rainfall, extends across southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. This moisture will spread eastward across the remainder of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next day or so. During this time frame, numerical model guidance suggests that the remnants of Agatha will be absorbed within a larger cyclonic gyre over southeastern Mexico. Development within the broad low could occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Please see NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains associated with remnants of Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 17.3N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF AGATHA 12H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 31 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 311442 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF AGATHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC TUE MAY 31 2022 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS ...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BUCCI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 311440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Agatha Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 ...REMNANTS OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 94.9W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Agatha were located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 94.9 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the remnants of Agatha will continue to move inland over southern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. The following storm total rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national meteorological service. $$ Forecaster Brown/Bucci

...REMNANTS OF AGATHA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue May 31 the center of Agatha was located near 17.3, -94.9 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 31 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 311440 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC TUE MAY 31 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 94.9W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 94.9W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 94.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Agatha, located inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 May 2022 14:36:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 May 2022 15:22:25 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Outer rain bands continue to spread across southern Mexico as the core of Agatha closes in on the coast, and conditions will steadily worsen throughout the day in the state of Oaxaca. The satellite presentation of the system has been relatively steady state for the past several hours with hints of an eye occasionally appearing within the central dense overcast. Convection remains quite deep and symmetric around the center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at 5.0, and therefore, the initial intensity is again held at 95 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is nearing the system and the data it collects will be quite helpful in assessing the strength and structure of Agatha. Agatha is moving to the northeast at 7 kt, and this motion should take the core of the hurricane to the coast of Oaxaca this afternoon. Not much change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is expected to maintain its current intensity until the core reaches the coast later today. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, and Agatha will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain of southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday. However, the global models suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broader low pressure system, which is being monitored for potential development in the Atlantic basin. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected near and to the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon and continuing through this evening. Tropical storm conditions have already begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread eastward within the warning area through tonight. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 15.3N 97.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0000Z 17.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2022 618 FOPZ11 KNHC 301435 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AGATHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AGATHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ANGEL 50 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) P ANGEL 64 68 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) HUATULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HUATULCO 50 83 5(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) HUATULCO 64 46 8(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 95W 34 16 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 642 WTPZ31 KNHC 301435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 ...AGATHA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 97.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan * Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 97.1 West. Agatha is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon or this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today before Agatha reaches the coast of Oaxaca. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). An observation in Puerto Angel recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the watch area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions have begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread eastward within the warning area through the day. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...AGATHA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon May 30 the center of Agatha was located near 15.3, -97.1 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2022 730 WTPZ21 KNHC 301434 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC MON MAY 30 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN * LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AGATHA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 97.1W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 97.1W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 97.4W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.6N 94.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 97.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Agatha, located near the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 May 2022 14:44:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 May 2022 15:22:27 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291442 TCDEP1 Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Agatha is rapidly intensifying. Recent conventional and microwave satellite data have shown that the storm's convective structure has significantly improved overnight and this morning. Overnight microwave imagery indicated that a low to mid-level eye had formed and more recent 1109 and 1206 UTC SSMIS overpasses revealed that the inner-core structure has continued to improve. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 77 and 65 kt, respectively, while objective Dvorak estimates have increased to near 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been set at 75 kt. The environment ahead of Agatha is expected to remain favorable for further intensification. The hurricane is currently over SSTs of around 30C, within low shear, and embedded in a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. As a result, continued steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the next 12-24 hours after which time the hurricane's intensity is likely to level off due to a possible eyewall cycle and/or interaction with land. The updated NHC intensity forecast is notably higher than the previous advisory due to the higher initial intensity and likelihood of continued rapid strengthening today. The new intensity forecast brings Agatha to near major hurricane strength before landfall in southern Mexico and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. After landfall Agatha should rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains terrain of southern Mexico. Agatha has been meandering this morning, but the longer term initial motion estimate is 345/2 kt. The hurricane should turn northward this afternoon, and then begin to move on a faster northeastward motion tonight and Monday as it becomes embedded in southwesterly flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level ridge to its east. On the foreast track, Agatha is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight, and move onshore on Monday. The latest track guidance is once again slower than before, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new NHC track remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.1N 99.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291442 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AGATHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AGATHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 44 6(50) 1(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 100W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 2 22(24) 11(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) P MALDONADO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ANGEL 34 1 31(32) 50(82) 6(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) P ANGEL 50 X 4( 4) 38(42) 13(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) P ANGEL 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 10(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) HUATULCO 34 1 8( 9) 57(66) 15(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) HUATULCO 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 19(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 95W 34 1 3( 4) 23(27) 10(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022 823 WTPZ21 KNHC 291441 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN * LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AGATHA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 99.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 99.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 ...AGATHA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 99.0W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan * Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Agatha is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a motion toward the northeast continuing through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico later today and tonight and make landfall there on Monday. Agatha is rapidly strengthening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possibly in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight or early Monday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of VeraCruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...AGATHA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun May 29 the center of Agatha was located near 14.1, -99.0 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

088
ABPZ20 KNHC 291141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Agatha, located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi