National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 171443 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 ...BLAS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 109.0W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west are expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and continue during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California later today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BLAS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 the center of Blas was located near 17.8, -109.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 171442 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Blas, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southwest coast
of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Three-E, located a couple hundred of
miles south-southwest of the coast of El Salvador.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Three-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Three-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jun 2022 14:38:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:24:00 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 161437 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 52(57) 16(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 12(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 13(23) 3(26) 1(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 3(19) 1(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 161437 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The satellite presentation of Blas in geostationary imagery has not changed much this morning with the center embedded within the northern portion of the central dense overcast. Recent microwave imagery, however, shows that there has been some additional degradation of the inner-core due to moderate east-northeasterly shear. There is a bit more uncertainty than normal in the initial intensity of the hurricane as the subjective Dvorak estimates are on the higher end at 77 and 90 kt, while objective satellite estimates from the ADT and SATCON are lower at 70 and 64 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is kept near a consensus of these estimates at 75 kt. Although the shear is forecast to relax slightly during the next 12-24 hours, the recent degradation of the inner core will likely prevent any further intensification. Therefore, little change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning. By 36 hours, Blas is forecast to cross the 26 degree Celsius isotherm which should commence the weakening process. Steady weakening is then anticipated during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and ICON consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed over the next 48-72 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the lower-level tradewind flow. There is very little cross-track spread among the various dynamical models, but there is some along-track or speed differences with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS much faster than the ECMWF. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory, closer to the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, but additional adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those areas through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.9N 104.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 161436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 ...BLAS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...LARGE SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 104.8W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 104.8 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, but steady weakening is expected to begin Friday night and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California by late Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...BLAS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...LARGE SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 the center of Blas was located near 15.9, -104.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 161436 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.8W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.8W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Blas, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southwest coast
of Mexico.

Off the coast of Central America:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some with an area of
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts
of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become a bit more favorable over the next day or two and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days.
This system is forecast to drift erratically through the weekend but
begin a more pronounced westward motion by early next week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across
portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 305 WTPZ42 KNHC 151457 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane. The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track guidance envelope. The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an inner core, which would likely support further intensification today as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Jun 2022 14:55:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Jun 2022 15:22:46 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 151455 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 3 70(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 105W 50 X 19(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 105W 64 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 2(24) X(24) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 41(48) 3(51) X(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 3(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 151454 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 ...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 102.8W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 102.8 West. Blas is now moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days with gradual acceleration. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours followed by gradual weakening by the end of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas are expected to reach the coast of southwestern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 the center of Blas was located near 14.9, -102.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 151453 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blas, located a few hundred miles south of the southwest coast
of Mexico.

Off the coast of Central America:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Guatemala
and El Salvador are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is possible while it drifts
erratically, and it could become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for development by this weekend. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jun 2022 14:59:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jun 2022 15:23:55 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 752 WTPZ42 KNHC 141458 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection. Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical storm of the season. The environment near Blas looks conducive for further intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm waters and generally light shear. However, increased northeasterly shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level anticyclone over Mexico. Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity forecast matches that trend. Weakening should commence by the end of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters. Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico. The tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a ridge building over Mexico. This motion should take the system gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Similar to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast. Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Bucci