National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181439 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet, this activity does not have much organization and already appears to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory. Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is changed little from the previous forecast. Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity, and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 90.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are decreasing. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 90.0 West. The depression is now moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A further turn to the west is expected by tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to the north of Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 the center of Celia was located near 12.8, -90.0 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THE CHANGES OF DIRECT WIND IMPACTS ARE DECREASING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 89.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 90.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 14:33:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:24:06 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 181432 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Blas continues to weaken and is quite disorganized this morning. Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level center with deep convection confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 50 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion within the low- to mid-level flow is expected to continue through the middle of next week. The models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be positioned closer to the various consensus aids. Although the current shear over Blas could decrease some, the storm is headed over progressively cooler waters and moving into an environment of increasingly stable atmospheric conditions. These factors should continue the weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. Swells associated with Blas are still causing dangerous surf and rip currents along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. These conditions should subside tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 181431 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 11(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 181431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 111.0W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Blas should degenerate into a remnant low early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 the center of Blas was located near 18.0, -111.0 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 181431 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 112.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 19.6N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blas, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Celia,
located less than one hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
El Salvador.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Jun 2022 15:09:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jun 2022 15:28:30 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 171457 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The satellite presentation of the system has improved somewhat this morning, with a well-defined band in its western semicircle and some deep convection persisting near and just west of the estimated center. Subjective intensity estimates are up to 35 kt from SAB and 45 kt from TAFB, while the most recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS were in the 40-45 kt range. There were also a few wind retrievals from overnight scatterometer imagery in the 34-36 kt range. The initial intensity has been set to a possibly conservative 35 kt for this advisory, upgrading Tropical Depression Three-E to Tropical Storm Celia. Celia still appears to be drifting generally northward, with the initial motion estimated at 020/4 kt. As discussed in the prior advisory, the storm is currently embedded within weak steering currents as a result of being a small vortex embedded within a much broader low-level cyclonic circulation centered over Central America, causing Celia to drift just east of due north over the past 12-18 hours. Possibly due to this small size, the model guidance does not have a good handle on the current position or structure of the cyclone. For example, the latest GFS run places Celia about 150 nm west of its actual position. The latest ECMWF run was closer to the correct position but barely depicts Celia as a distinct entity within the larger gyre circulation. Even the higher-resolution regional hurricane models are struggling to depict this cyclone. Given these difficulties, the short-term track forecast is quite problematic, with the track guidance spread more than double the typical climatological value in the 24-48 hour period. Generally the guidance has shifted further south this cycle, when Celia is expected to be steered by a building mid-level ridge and perhaps some low-level flow enhanced by a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The track forecast this advisory follows suit, and is further south than the previous advisory after 36 hours, but still is not as far south as the reliable consensus aids. Given all the complicating factors above, this track forecast is of low confidence. The substantial uncertainty in the track forecast also applies to the current intensity forecast with Celia. Easterly vertical wind shear is already starting to increase over the system, as suggested by both GFS- and ECMWF- based SHIPS guidance, and is forecast to be above 20 kt in 24-36 hours. The GFS model, which seems to be best capturing Celia's current structure, quickly shears off the current deep convection to the east due to the increasing upper-level flow. In addition, current sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) under the cyclone are already marginal (26-27 C) and could cool further over the next 36 hours given Celia's slow motion. The intensity guidance this cycle is lower than the previous one for the first 48-72 hours, and only some slight additional intensification is anticipated before these negative factors limit Celia's intensity. Towards the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to decrease and SSTs warm, which could provide an opportunity for the storm to began intensifying again. However, it is also possible the negative factors indicated above may result in Celia weakening or degenerating into a remnant low, devoid of organized convection, as suggested by the ECMWF solution. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 11.6N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 11.8N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 12.1N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 12.2N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 12.2N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 11.9N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 11.7N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 12.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 171451 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) P SAN JOSE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 90W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 399 WTPZ33 KNHC 171450 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CELIA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 89.3W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 89.3 West. Celia is drifting toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the north is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the west over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast today followed by little change in strength over the weekend. Celia is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward only 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Tropical Storm Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CELIA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 the center of Celia was located near 11.6, -89.3 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 171449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 89.3W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 89.3W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 89.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 89.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.2N 90.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.2N 90.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.9N 92.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N 94.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N 98.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.0N 102.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 89.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 171445 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Blas has become a little better organized this morning. Microwave data from overnight showed an eye feature and numerous curved bands, especially south of the center. Since then, deep convection has been increasing and has become a bit more symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 77 to 90 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 80 kt based on that data. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 12 kt. Blas is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S. The hurricane is expected to slow down on Saturday and turn westward on Sunday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the lighter low-level flow. This slow westward motion is forecast to continue through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Blas is currently in favorable conditions for strengthening, but that is not expected to last much longer. The hurricane should cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today and move over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. In addition, Blas will be moving into an environment of increasingly more stable and dry air. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow post-tropical system in a few days. The NHC intensity is forecast is a touch higher than the previous one, due to the slightly stronger initial intensity. While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. These swells are expected to spread to parts of the southern Baja California peninsula later today and continue through the weekend. These conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 171443 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 28 4(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 35 22(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ISLA SOCORRO 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 2 8(10) 25(35) 12(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 2 4( 6) 13(19) 13(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI