National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 ...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO ARE OCCURING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 126.1W ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 126.1 West. Jova is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for the next day or so. Jova is forecast to slow down further and turn toward the west-southwest by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Jova is expected to become a remnant low by late Sunday or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO ARE OCCURING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 9 the center of Jova was located near 22.9, -126.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 126.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 126.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.4N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.1N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 126.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located about a thousand miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2023 20:36:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2023 21:35:48 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082035 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 21 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 25N 125W 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Jova continues to weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures. The overall satellite depiction of Jova is that of a weakening tropical system, encountering a more stable environment. A SSMIS microwave pass that came in just after the previous advisory, shows that banding around Jova is thinning, and the inner core is collapsing as dry air wraps into the system. Cloud tops within the convection have been warming throughout the day as well. Subjective and objective satellite estimates have continued to decrease throughout the day. The initial intensity has been set to 75 kt, which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Environmental conditions along the forecast track are becoming less favorable, as the hurricane is moving over cool sea surface temperatures and into a more stable airmass. The latest NHC forecast continues to show steady weakening and is similar to the previous advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time. Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days while the cyclone rounds the end of a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward into the low-level flow towards the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory, just slightly slower and lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 ...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 122.4W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 122.4 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are expected to reach portions of the coast of California later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 8 the center of Jova was located near 20.4, -122.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 082034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 122.4W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 122.4W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 121.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 122.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2023 20:39:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Sep 2023 21:35:31 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows Jova is gradually weakening. The eye has been cloud-filled for much of the day, with dry air trying to wrap into the southern and eastern side of the system. SSMIS microwave imagery depicts the earlier thick concentric eyewall is starting to thin, with the inner core becoming less pronounced. Infrared imagery shows this as well with the infrared cloud tops warming throughout the day as well. Subjective satellite estimates were lower this advisory, with Dvorak final-T numbers of 6.0 and CI numbers of 7.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Given the structural changes depicted in microwave and visible imagery, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 125 kt, which falls between the latest Dvorak estimates. Jova may continue to experience some short-term intensity fluctuations as it undergoes structural changes and moves into a less favorable environment. In about 24 h, Jova will cross a sharp sea surface temperature gradient into cooler waters, while it moves into a drier, more stable airmass. This will induce a steady weakening trend over the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and the official forecast shows Jova becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 15 kt around a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Jova should generally follow this motion for the next several days. As the system weakens and becomes a shallow vortex, a turn toward the west and southwest within the low-level flow is anticipated. The guidance envelope remains in good agreement, and the track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 117.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 18.6N 119.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.0N 124.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.4N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 24.5N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 25.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 24.2N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072037 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 53 35(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 120W 50 2 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 120W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 8( 8) 55(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) X(25) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 117.3W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 117.3 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast to begin later tonight and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 7 the center of Jova was located near 17.7, -117.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072035 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.6N 119.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.4N 126.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 129.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.0N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.2N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:40:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:40:27 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution 1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB. Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models, DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135 kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air, which should induce weakening. Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of west-northwestward at 13 kt. Jova is moving along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly