National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...DARBY A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Jul 12 the center of Darby was located near 14.7, -129.7 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Jul 2022 14:59:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Jul 2022 15:22:40 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 350 WTPZ45 KNHC 121448 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 While Darby remains an impressively compact hurricane, there has been a bit of erosion in the inner-core convective structure this morning. The eye in particular has become less distinct and has cooled relative to yesterday afternoon, though the eyewall convection remains strong and quite circular. While an AMSR2 microwave pass at 1042 UTC still showed a closed eyewall, the convection on the northwestern side has eroded some compared to yesterday. Darby remains a very small tropical cyclone, with overnight scatterometer wind data indicating tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 40 n mi to the northeast of the center. While the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak classifications were a consensus CI 6.0/115 kt, the objective ADT and SATCON data is quite a bit lower. The initial intensity on this advisory is set at 110 kt, blending the guidance, but favoring the somewhat higher subjective Dvorak estimates. While the current vertical wind shear (VWS) over Darby remains very low, sea-surface temperatures underneath the hurricane are gradually decreasing, now currently just under 27 C. It seems likely that Darby is now post-peak intensity and should begin to gradually weaken in the short-term under the less favorable thermodynamic environment. After 24 hours, a combination of an increasingly stable and dry airmass, plus an increase in southwesterly VWS from a broad upper-level trough to the northwest of Darby, is expected to lead to a more rapid weakening trend later this week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is still on the high side of the guidance envelope early on, but then shows a faster rate of weakening as the small cyclone encounters a more hostile environment. Darby is still expected to become post-tropical by 96 hours as deep convection is completely removed from the center and dissipates as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models at that period. Darby continues to move on a due westward heading at 270/14 kt. There is not much new to report with the track philosophy, as a mid-level ridge currently north of Darby will be eroded some by the aforementioned upper-level trough. This should result in a bit more west-northwest bend in Darby's track between 24-60 hours. After that period, Darby is expected to become an increasingly shallow vortex, and its track should turn back westward following the trade-wind flow around a large low-level subtropical ridge poleward of Hawaii. The latest track forecast is little changed from the prior advisory, and remains close to the tightly clustered consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 14.7N 129.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 121445 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 130W 64 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 135W 34 1 78(79) 16(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 135W 50 X 43(43) 33(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 135W 64 X 16(16) 34(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 121444 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 12 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.7W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 75SE 60SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.7W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

704
ABPZ20 KNHC 121159
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located more than 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is producing a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression later this
week into the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift
westward for the next day or two, then move west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph later this week while remaining offshore of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111454 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 What a difference 24 hours makes! Darby has been rapidly intensifying for the last 12-18 hours, with the eye continuing to clear out on GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery surrounded by a thick ring of cold -65 to -75C cloud top temperatures. It is clear that the tropical cyclone was able to mix out the remaining dry air near its center last night and the last several microwave passes from GMI at 0732 UTC and AMSR2 at 0959 UTC have an impressive presentation with a thick ring of eyewall convection on the 89-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are constrained due to Dvorak rules, but their data-T numbers were both T5.5/102 kt. The most recent CI number from the UW-CIMSS objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) was at T6.0/115 kt. Favoring the higher ADT estimate more, the current intensity is set to 110 kt, though this could be conservative. There are no obvious signs currently that would prevent Darby from intensifying further. There are few indications that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent from the earlier microwave imagery and SHIPS guidance indicates the storm remains in a very low shear (near 5 kt) environment and over sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures (27-28 C). Thus, rapid intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 h, and the NHC foreast intensity peaks Darby at 120 kt, which matches the latest ECMWF- and GFS-based SHIPS which have correctly been on the high side of the guidance envelope. After 36 hours, Darby is expected to move into sub 26C SSTs, and westerly shear is forecast to increase between 48-72 hours. Thus, the small vortex of Darby could weaken rapidly after 36 hours, with the latest intensity forecast still making the system a post-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period. Darby is continuing westward along at the same general speed and heading at 270/13 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered to its north. The hurricane is expected to approach a slight weakness in the ridge after 24 hours, allowing the cyclone to gradually shift to a more west-northwestward track between 36-72 hours. However, by the end of the forecast period, as Darby becomes shallow vortex, its track will likely bend back westward as the low-level trade wind flow becomes dominant. The latest track forecast is not all that different from the previous one, choosing to remain close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GEFX) which remains just a bit north of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE, which are influenced by the further south tracks of the weaker HWRF/HMON/UKMET guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 123.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Jul 2022 14:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Jul 2022 15:24:05 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 146 FOPZ15 KNHC 111449 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 125W 64 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 130W 34 X 14(14) 82(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 76(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 130W 64 X 1( 1) 52(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 39(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 111449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 ...DARBY STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH 125 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 123.4W ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Major Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 123.4 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the west-northwest beginning by Tuesday. Darby has been rapidly intensifying this morning and maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast today, and Darby is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane. Weakening is then forecast to begin by midweek. Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 111448 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.4W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.4W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...DARBY STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH 125 MPH WINDS... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 11 the center of Darby was located near 14.6, -123.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter, and this system could become a tropical depression by
late this week. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2022 14:46:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 Darby has become better organized this morning. A 0916 UTC AMSR2 and more recent 1216 UTC SSMIS microwave pass have revealed increased banding over the eastern semicircle of the storm and an improved low-level inner core structure. Early-light visible satellite imagery also shows an increase in banding and the development of a small CDO feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have responded accordingly and are now up to 45 and 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 50 kt for this advisory. There still appears to be some entrainment of drier mid-level air over the northwestern portion of the circulation, but with low environmental shear and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) ahead, Darby should be able to strengthen over the next 36-48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening during the first day or so, primarily due to the higher initial intensity. The new forecast calls for Darby to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and then peak in intensity in a couple of days. After that time, gradually decreasing SSTs and a more stable environment should lead to steady weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC wind speed forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the first 24-48 hours and is in best agreement with the European-based SHIPS model. Thereafter, it is close to the various consensus aids. Darby continues to move westward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should continue on a westward motion to the south of a mid-level ridge extending westward from the northern portion of Baja California. In a few days the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken which should cause Darby to turn west-northwestward. The track guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, though the UKMET model depicts a much weaker Darby and shows a faster westward motion. The NHC forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which is a little slower than the consensus aids due to the contribution from the much faster UKMET model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.3N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101444 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 34 25(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 66(68) 17(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 24(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 67(76) 1(77) X(77) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101444 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 ...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 117.6W ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 117.6 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Darby is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Jul 10 the center of Darby was located near 14.3, -117.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 101444 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 10 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 117.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 117.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Darby, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Darby are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Darby are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brown