National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091444 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 The last few deep convective cloud tops below -50C dissipated with Bonnie at around 0600 UTC last night. In the absence of any deeper convection since then, Bonnie's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is fleeting. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt in this advisory. The initial motion continues just north of due west at 280/18 kt. As Bonnie continues weakening, it will be increasingly steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow. The latest track forecast is largely an update of the previous one but just a bit faster, remaining close to the center of the track guidance envelope. Bonnie is now over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures and embedded in a very dry, stable atmospheric environment. These factors are expected to prevent additional deep convective activity over the system. If deeper convection does not return soon near the center, Bonnie could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as this afternoon. This expectation is reflected in the latest forecast with Bonnie becoming a remnant low in 12 h, with the closed circulation opening up into a trough in 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 19.5N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Jul 2022 14:43:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Jul 2022 15:22:30 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 ...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 127.7W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 127.7 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Bonnie dissipates early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bonnie should become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The post-tropical low should dissipate by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 9 the center of Bonnie was located near 19.5, -127.7 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091441 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 09 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 127.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

667
ABPZ20 KNHC 091150
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Recent satellite imagery indicates that the coverage and
organization of shower and thunderstorm activity has increased
significantly overnight in association with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
central part of the eastern North Pacific basin today or tomorrow
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

West of Central America:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form west of the coast of
Central America by early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system
next week while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2022 14:36:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2022 15:22:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081434 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Deep convection continues to quickly decrease near Bonnie, with a small area remaining near and north of the surface center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are falling, and a blend of 4 0935 UTC microwave SATCON intensity values supports an initial intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Bonnie's moving over 25 deg C water with cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a drier, stable air mass along the forecast path of the cyclone. Therefore, further weakening is likely with a loss of organized convection, and post-tropical status is predicted in 36 hours, possibly less. As shown in the global models and the NHC intensity forecast, Bonnie should degenerate into a trough in 4 days. The initial motion is due west, or 280/17 kt. Low- to mid-tropospheric easterly flow should steer the cyclone on a continued westward heading with a slight decrease in forward speed early Sunday. The model guidance remains in good agreement with the future track of Bonnie through the period, and no appreciable changes were made from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.3N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 081433 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 35(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 125W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 081433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 ...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 120.4W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 120.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A general westward motion is expected during the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed Sunday through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength later today and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 the center of Bonnie was located near 18.3, -120.4 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081433 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 08 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 120.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form well southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week
while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

South of Central America:
A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week south of
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system next week
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071436 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 The overall satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much this morning. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a well-defined low-level eye, but the deep convection was fragmented over the southwestern portion of the circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which supports maintaining an intensity of 80 kt. Bonnie will be crossing the 26C isotherm later today, and into a drier and more stable environment over the next 24-48 hours. These factors should result in steady to rapid weakening beginning later today or tonight. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Bonnie will cease to produce deep convection in 48-60 h, and the official forecast calls for Bonnie to become a remnant low by late Saturday. Additional spin down is expected after that time, and the system should degenerate into a trough of low pressure shortly after day 3. Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the storm westward to west-northwestward. As Bonnie weakens it is expected to accelerate more westward as it comes under the influence of the stronger low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.3N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071436 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA CLARION 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 10(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 ...BONNIE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 113.7W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 113.7 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength by Friday and become a post- tropical cyclone by late Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...BONNIE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 the center of Bonnie was located near 17.3, -113.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071435 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 113.7W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071115
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown