National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 23 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 13.9, -120.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP97):
An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Recent
microwave imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with this system have become better organized, though it
remains unclear if a well-defined surface circulation has formed.
Regardless, further development of this system is anticipated and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of organization. Further
development of the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression
is expected to form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves generally westward across the central and western parts
of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 20:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 21:35:02 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212040 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Kenneth is a sheared tropical cyclone. The small area of active convection associated with the storm has been displaced over 90 n mi from its exposed low-level center by southwesterly shear. This deteriorating satellite presentation has caused the intensity estimates to decrease today. Based on a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Recent satellite images indicate Kenneth has begun its northward turn, and the initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/6 kt. A generally northward motion should continue for the next couple of days as the system moves within the flow between a mid-level trough to the northwest and a mid-level ridge over central Mexico. There were no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous prediction. While simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Kenneth could produce intermittent bursts of sheared convection during the next day or so, the environmental conditions (stronger shear, progressively cooler SSTs, and a drier and more stable airmass) are not conducive for sustained convection going forward. Based on these factors and recent satellite trends, this forecast shows additional weakening with post-tropical/remnant low status in 24 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.9N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212040 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 125.7W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 125.7 West. Kenneth is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion is expected to begin later tonight and continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 17.9, -125.7 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212039 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 125.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1100 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
A low pressure trough located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible over the next several days, and a tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward across the central and western part of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2023 20:39:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2023 21:28:52 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 870 WTPZ43 KNHC 202038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Kenneth's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably during the last 6 hours. The average of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak numbers is 45 kt. Most of the objective intensity estimates are a bit lower. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Kenneth is estimated to be near the southern edge of the central dense overcast. However, the current position is quite uncertain. The initial motion is estimated at 290/9 kt. A turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected on Thursday between a subtropical high centered over northwestern Mexico and a potent mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kenneth. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous NHC track prediction, but not as far north as the latest consensus models. Kenneth is currently located in an environment that is favorable enough for it to at least maintain its intensity over the next 12-24 hours. However, a more stable air mass is located just to the north and northwest of the cyclone, as evidenced by scattered low stratus clouds seen on GOES-18 satellite imagery, indicative of a marine boundary layer. As Kenneth approaches the mid- to upper-level trough over the next couple of days, strong southwesterly wind shear will increasingly encroach on Kenneth. Kenneth will also cross the 26C isotherm about the same time the shear ramps up Thursday evening. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is near the middle of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.7N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 202036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 ...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 124.2W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 124.2 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is anticipated Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to commence by Thursday night, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.7, -124.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 202035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

107
ABPZ20 KNHC 201752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP96):
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible late this week and over the
weekend while it moves generally westward into the Central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days
well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible this
weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Kenneth, located about 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2023 20:36:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2023 21:29:25 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH