National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161447 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...ESTELLE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 103.7W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 103.7 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and continued strengthening is expected during the next day or two. Estelle is likely to become a hurricane later today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are beginning to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ESTELLE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 the center of Estelle was located near 14.0, -103.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six-E, located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jul 2022 14:40:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jul 2022 15:28:39 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Conventional satellite data and passive microwave imagery indicate that the low pressure system NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has become better defined this morning. The associated convection has been persistent and is presently organized into a couple of fragmented curved bands that wrap around the northern and western portions of its circulation. The system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that the system will maintain this general heading and speed during the next couple of days while moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone early next week, which should keep it on a west-northwestward heading with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5. The official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the TVCE consensus aid. The current track and wind radii forecasts keep tropical-storm-force winds well offshore of southwestern Mexico, so no coastal watches or warnings are necessary at this time. The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening, and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h). The official NHC track forecast is fairly aggressive and lies on the higher side of the guidance, generally between the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday and continue strengthening through early next week. By the end of the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 12.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X 5( 5) 52(57) 17(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 47(52) 4(56) X(56) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) X(20) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 24(50) X(50) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 60(62) 9(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 9(38) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 11(43) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151437 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 100.8W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days while the system remains well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system could become a hurricane by late this weekend or early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 the center of Six-E was located near 12.0, -100.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico continue to show increased signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico by late Friday or Saturday. The
disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at
about 10 mph while remaining offshore of the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

051
ABPZ20 KNHC 131753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located about 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with the disturbance is beginning to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by Friday or Saturday. The
disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two,
then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend
while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/R. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jul 2022 14:42:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jul 2022 15:23:47 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022 299 WTPZ45 KNHC 131434 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022 Surprise! The eye of Darby reappeared this morning in IR imagery after a hiatus overnight. Recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates, and the U-W CIMSS ADT all support an intensity of 90 kt, so Darby's intensity was adjusted to that value. It should be stressed that this appears to be a short-term fluctuation and has not changed the overall thinking behind the intensity forecast, which calls for Darby to generally weaken over the next few days. Darby could maintain its intensity with small fluctuations today, but all available intensity guidance indicates it will resume weakening by tonight or tomorrow (if not sooner). This is likely because it is moving through a marginal environment that includes SSTs dropping below 26 deg C and 700-500 mb relative humidities between 55-60 percent based on GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics. After 24 h, an increase in wind shear should cause Darby to weaken at a faster rate, particularly given the small size of the hurricane. Simulated satellite output from the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF models indicate Darby will lose all deep convection and become post-tropical in about 60 h. The cyclone should subsequently dissipate about a day after that. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is near or just below the intensity consensus (IVCN) at all forecast hours. Virtually no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Darby appears to have started an expected brief west-northwestward jog, with an initial motion just north of due west at 14 kt. Darby should complete that turn and move west-northwestward today, and then turn westward tomorrow as it weakens through the end of the week. The official track forecast is based heavily on the multi-model consensus aids HCCA and TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.0N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.4N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 16.4N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 16.6N 145.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 16.6N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 13 2022 269 FOPZ15 KNHC 131434 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC WED JUL 13 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 135W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 135W 64 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 140W 34 1 50(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 140W 50 X 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 140W 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 13 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 131433 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC WED JUL 13 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.4N 137.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 142.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.6N 145.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 148.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 135.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 131433 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022 ...EYE OF DARBY MAKES A SURPRISE REAPPEARANCE... ...HURRICANE STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 135.4W ABOUT 1750 MI...2815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 135.4 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected today, followed by at turn toward the west on Thursday. Darby is forecast to continue westward after that at a slightly slower forward speed through the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible today. Darby is forecast to resume weakening by tonight. The system will likely become a tropical storm on Thursday and become post-tropical on Friday. Darby is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...EYE OF DARBY MAKES A SURPRISE REAPPEARANCE... ...HURRICANE STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM HST Wed Jul 13 the center of Darby was located near 15.0, -135.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located about 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a wide area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development and a tropical depression is expected to
form well offshore the coast of southern Mexico late this week or
over the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to drift westward for
the next day or two, then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
through the weekend while remaining offshore of the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121459 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022 Corrected syntax error in headline ...DARBY A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 129.7W ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 129.7 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual west-northwestward turn beginning tonight into tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours followed by more rapid weakening later this week. Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin