National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of Estelle was located near 19.0, -115.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Estelle, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
Baja California.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico late this week.
Some slow development is possible after that time while the system
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2022 14:49:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 638 WTPZ41 KNHC 181447 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Estelle is beginning to look a little better organized based on satellite imagery. First-light visible pictures show the center of the cyclone is now embedded in the central dense overcast. Observations from Socorro Island confirm that they are within the estimated tropical-storm-force radii. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 65 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, representing a blend of these estimates. Low to moderate northerly wind shear is expected to limit the future strengthening of the system in the next day or so. However, warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of near-storm environmental moisture may allow for some slight intensification within a day. Beyond 36 hours, Estelle should cross the 26 degrees C sea surface isotherm and move over increasingly colder waters. This and the drier surrounding environment should cause the hurricane to weaken to a remnant low by the weekend. The official forecast is slightly higher than the model guidance in the short term forecast and then follows the multi-model consensus guidance after 36 hours. The hurricane is moving west-northwest at about 12 kt. This general motion is predicted to continue for the next few days as Estelle is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Later in the forecast period, low-level trade winds should turn the weaker system westward. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory and only slightly north of the model consensus guidance, TVCE. Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 911 WTPZ31 KNHC 181444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 ...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 111.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.1 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). An automated Mexican Navy weather station on Socorro Island recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and gusts to 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 the center of Estelle was located near 18.0, -111.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181444 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 16 80(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ISLA CLARION 50 1 70(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ISLA CLARION 64 X 36(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 4 56(60) 7(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 55(70) 7(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181442 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Estelle, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2022 14:37:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Estelle remains a well-organized hurricane this morning. There are very cold cloud tops over the core that range between -70 to -80 degrees Celsius, numerous and distinct banding features, and a rather symmetric and pronounced upper-level outflow. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB estimated Estelle at 65 and 77 kt, respectively, and given the slightly improved satellite presentation, the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt. Low to moderate vertical wind shear, high low-to-mid-tropospheric humidities, and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to prevail through tomorrow. This should allow for further intensification. The official forecast is above the explicit model predictions through 48 hours since there is potential for rapid intensification according to the statistical guidance. Beyond two days, the NHC intensity forecast follows the model consensus and weakens Estelle as it encounters a more hostile thermodynamic and oceanic environment. The system is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 295/10 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast, and should continue to head in the same general direction for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, when the storm weakens, the cyclone should turn westward and follow the shallow low-level flow. The official forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 171435 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 15(15) 12(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 51(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 28(32) 6(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 65(68) 5(73) 1(74) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 5(38) X(38) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 3(29) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 171435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 107.1W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.1 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Estelle could become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula later today and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 the center of Estelle was located near 15.7, -107.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 171435 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Jul 2022 14:50:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Jul 2022 15:28:40 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 113 WTPZ41 KNHC 161448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Estelle has continued to strengthen this morning. Earlier passive microwave imagery indicated the vortex was slightly tilted in the vertical, likely due to 10-15 kt of deep-layer northeasterly shear over the small cyclone. The mid-level eye feature was still open on the upshear side, but recent satellite trends show an expanding central dense overcast with -75 to -80 deg C cloud tops spreading over its center. The 12 UTC objective and subjective satellite estimates were all at 55 kt, but given the recent improved satellite presentation and an uptick in the ADT estimates, the advisory intensity is set at 60 kt. Further strengthening is expected as Estelle moves within a moist and unstable environment over very warm SSTs. Of course, this assumes that Estelle is able to close off its inner core to help resist the negative effects of continued moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer shear. The latest intensity guidance unanimously supports at least steady strengthening over the next 24-36 h, and SHIPS/LGEM favor rapid intensification (RI) with some indications that the shear could weaken a bit later today. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and explicitly forecasts RI, generally between the multi-model consensus and the most aggressive SHIPS/LGEM aids. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Later next week, increasing shear and decreasing SSTs along its track should lead to a weakening trend on days 3-5. Estelle is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge entrenched over the southwestern U.S. should keep steering Estelle west-northwestward during the next several days. There is increased spread in the track guidance on days 3-5, with the GFS on the far northern edge of the guidance envelope and the ECWMF and UKMET faster and much farther south. The NHC track forecast is nudged just a bit south of the previous one in the extended range, but still lies slightly to the north of the TVCE and HCCA aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 14.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 905 FOPZ11 KNHC 161447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 91 6(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 105W 50 29 39(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 105W 64 10 31(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 29(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 18(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 70(73) 8(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 8(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) X(31) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 3(28) X(28) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 9(42) 1(43) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 12(69) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART