National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 311437 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.3W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.3W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 271 FOPZ13 KNHC 311437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 11(26) 1(27) X(27) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 311436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 31 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.7W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 15SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.7W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 129.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N 130.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.3N 130.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 129.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

665
ABPZ20 KNHC 301729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Frank, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm Georgette,
located well over a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Jul 2022 14:40:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Jul 2022 15:28:45 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 834 WTPZ43 KNHC 301437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 The structure of Georgette continues to show evidence of northeasterly shear, with most of the convective activity occurring southwest of the estimated center. Persistent convection near the center of the storm, as well as subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS, continue to support an initial intensity of 45 kt, consistent with the prior advisory. The mid-level ridge to the west of Hurricane Frank continues to steer the tropical storm west-southwestward, with a current estimated motion of 255/9 kt. This motion is expected to continue during the day today, after which the steering currents are expected to weaken, resulting in a slower forward motion during the next couple days. By 72 hours, Georgette is expected to begin moving northeastward under the influence of southwesterly steering flow. The track guidance diverges significantly after 36 hours, with many of the consensus aids indicating a delayed turn toward the north or northeast compared to the previous official forecast. The official forecast track is shifted westward from the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend of the HCCA and the previous forecast. The combined influences of east-northeasterly vertical shear and the proximity to Hurricane Frank are expected to limit the intensification of Georgette during the next several days. The intensity is forecast to hold steady during the next day or so, with gradual weakening expected thereafter before dissipating after 96 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and aligned with the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.0N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 13.7N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 13.4N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 13.4N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 13.5N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 13.8N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.4N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 301437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) 2(21) X(21) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Jul 2022 14:37:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Jul 2022 15:22:44 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 301436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.4N 129.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.4N 129.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 129.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 129.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.4N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 128.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 126.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 301436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Georgette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 ...SMALL GEORGETTE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 126.8W ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 126.8 West. Georgette is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is forecast to move on a similar heading at a slower forward speed for the next day or so. After that, Georgette's forward movement should slow further, resulting in a meandering motion through the remainder of the weekend. A turn toward the northeast is expected by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with gradual weakening anticipated after that. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Beven

...SMALL GEORGETTE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 the center of Georgette was located near 14.0, -126.8 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 301436 TCDEP2 Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Frank has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The hurricane continues to produce bands of cold deep convection near the center, but an eye is not currently apparent. Since the various satellite intensity estimates are also basically unchanged, the initial intensity remains set at 80 kt. The hurricane continues to have excellent cirrus outflow in all directions except the southwest. Frank is running out of time to intensify, as it is now passing over the 28C sea surface temperature isotherm and will reach waters of 26C in about 24 h. The guidance indicates that some strengthening is possible during the next 12 h, although the chances of rapid intensification have diminished. Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for a 90-kt peak intensity in 12 h, which is at the upper edge of the guidance. After 24 h, the cyclone should move over progressively cooler water, reaching 21C SSTs in about 96 h. This should lead to a steady weakening, and Frank is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h. It should be noted that near the end of the forecast period, the GFS model shows some rejuvenation of convection as the post-tropical cyclone interacts with an upper-level trough to its northwest. Frank continues moving northwestward or 310/10 kt, and there is little change to the track forecast scenario. The cyclone should continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast period while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level ridge toward a developing break in the ridge west of California. The track guidance shifted a little to the north and east at 96 and 120 h, and thus the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction at those times. Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast and lies close to the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 16.6N 116.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 17.6N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 20.1N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 21.4N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 22.7N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 24.0N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 26.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z 28.6N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 301435 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 2 51(53) 41(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 20N 120W 50 X 7( 7) 61(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 120W 64 X 2( 2) 31(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) X(25) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 301435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Frank Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 ...FRANK PASSING SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 116.3W ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 116.3 West. Frank is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight. After that, Frank is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler water. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The Mexican automated station on Clarion Island recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (75 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANK PASSING SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 the center of Frank was located near 16.6, -116.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 301434 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 30 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.3W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 105SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.3W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 120.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.4N 121.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 123.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 124.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 26.6N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.6N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and on Tropical Storm
Georgette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 14:42:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 15:23:41 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 14:40:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Jul 2022 15:30:39 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 715 WTPZ43 KNHC 291438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022 GOES-17 Proxy-Vis and enhanced IR imagery show that Georgette's cloud pattern has become more symmetric with colder -77C inner core cloud tops. An earlier AMSR2 revealed an eye-like feature in the lower frequency band and a well-developed rain band in the north part of the cyclone. The eye feature, however, was not evident in the infrared presentation. Although the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB haven't changed; the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt in deference to the microwave image. The global models and the statistical intensity guidance indicate that the easterly shear will increase within 24 hours, causing Georgette to weaken slowly. However, due to Georgette's compact size, intensity fluctuations are possible in the short term. The latest GFS run shows that Georgette could hang on a little longer than the NHC forecast indicates, possibly as a post-tropical cyclone. Therefore, adjusting the forecast may be deemed necessary to extend the cyclone's life in subsequent advisories. The official forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity aids. Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be just a bit south of due west or 260/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching east-northeast to west-southwest should steer the small cyclone west to west-southwestward during the next 48 hours. Afterward, a reduction in forward speed along with a turn toward the northeast is expected in response to larger Frank weakening the ridge and disrupting the steering flow while passing to the northeast of Georgette. Although the ECMWF global has been the best performer in the eastern Pacific this season with respect to forecast track, the model continues to initialize poorly the compact TC indicating a significantly weaker system while remaining the left tracker outlier. The GFS, however, now has a more accurate depiction of the cyclone's size and vertical depth and shows a more direct response to Frank's larger wind field. There still is quite a bit of uncertainty in Georgette's future track as evident by the larger than usual guidance spread, particularly after the northeast turn. Consequently, this is a low confidence forecast. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, but has been adjusted to the left beyond that point to agree more with the HCCA and GEFS/EPS ensemble member solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts