National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
surface trough centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Development, if any, of this system is expected
to be slow to occur as the trough moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend
several hundred miles south of extreme southeastern Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter through
midweek while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Estelle, located well to the west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles offshore of southern Mexico is associated with
a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is
possible by this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2022 14:41:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2022 15:22:58 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211441 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Estelle Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Estelle has diminished to a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level clouds with very little organized deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT agree that the surface wind speeds are now around 30 kt. Based on these estimates, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression. Estelle should remain over cold water and continue to weaken. Unless there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection, the system is likely to be designated as a post-tropical cyclone later today. Estelle continues to move west-northwestward at 11 kt while being steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected until the system opens up into a trough in a couple of days. The official forecast is shifted slightly north of the previous prediction and is in line with the new track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 22.7N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 211440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 211440 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 211440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Estelle Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 ...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 125.5W ABOUT 995 MI...1595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Estelle was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Estelle is expected to weaken further and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 the center of Estelle was located near 22.7, -125.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located several hundred miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
offshore of southern Mexico in several days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible by this weekend while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2022 14:38:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2022 15:21:05 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201438 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation. A microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the storm passes over increasingly cooler waters. Estelle is predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day. The official intensity prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no major changes from the previous advisory forecast. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward speed is likely to continue through 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 201436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 201436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 120.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 120.7 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of Estelle was located near 21.2, -120.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 201435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 120.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a
few hundred miles offshore of Central America and southern Mexico.
Some gradual development is possible late this week or this weekend
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191443 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt, respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent a blend of the classifications. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory and close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 14:39:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 115.5W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 115.5 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle will diminish along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci