1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 052031
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
...ALETTA WEAKENS FURTHER...
...WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 110.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 110.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so until
Aletta dissipates.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to continue, and Aletta will likely
dissipate in about a day or so.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
...ALETTA WEAKENS FURTHER... ...WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING...
As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Jul 5
the center of Aletta was located near 18.6, -110.8
with movement W at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 052030
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.3W
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 110.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051704
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 14:49:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 15:29:03 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 051442
TCDEP1
Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
Multiple microwave images between 08 and 12 UTC indicated that
Aletta still has a well-defined center, and it has continued to
produce a small area of deep convection near that center. Objective
and subjective intensity estimates range from around 25 to 35 kt, so
the estimated maximum winds are still 30 kt for this advisory.
Aletta is moving westward (270/10kt) and a west-southwestward turn
is expected later this morning.
The small depression is located in a marginal environment, and a
combination of decreasing SSTs below 26 deg C, drier surrounding
air, and increasing shear should cause Aletta to lose its deep
convection later today. In fact, all dynamical guidance suggests
that Aletta will become a remnant low within the next 6 to 18 h. The
NHC forecast conservatively maintains Aletta as a tropical cyclone
on the longer side of that range, but still shows gradual weakening
through the forecast period. After it becomes a remnant low, Aletta
is expected to turn back toward the west and dissipate within
another day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 18.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 051442
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 23 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 051442
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.3W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 112.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 109.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 051442
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
...ALETTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 109.8W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta
was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 109.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
westward to west-southwestward motion at a slightly slower forward
speed is expected for the next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight weakening is expected today. Aletta will likely become a
remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate shortly thereafter.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
...ALETTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Jul 5
the center of Aletta was located near 18.8, -109.8
with movement W at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
463
ABPZ20 KNHC 051145
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Aletta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Aletta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 08:37:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 09:28:53 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 050836
TCDEP1
Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
Data from the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers, which both
provided a good sampling of Aletta's circulation, revealed that the
system no longer had tropical-storm-force winds. The scatterometer
data also showed that the center of the tropical cyclone is
displaced to the west of the remaining area of deep convection,
presumably due to easterly vertical wind shear. Accordingly, the
system is being downgraded to a tropical depression on this
advisory. During the next day or two, Aletta should be under the
influence of increasingly dry air with continued moderate shear,
while moving over marginal sea surface temperatures. Therefore the
system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 12 to 24
hours, and dissipate soon thereafter. This is similar to the
previous official intensity forecast.
Aletta is turning to the left with an initial motion estimate of
290/10 kt. The weakening cyclone should turn westward to
west-southwestward within the low-level flow until dissipation.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 18.7N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 050836
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 11(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 050835
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024
0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.7W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.3W
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 108.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 050835
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Aletta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 AM MST Fri Jul 05 2024
...ALETTA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 108.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Aletta
was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 108.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected
during the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Aletta
should become a remnant low tonight and dissipate by this weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
...ALETTA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Jul 5
the center of Aletta was located near 18.7, -108.7
with movement WNW at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050511
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Aletta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 02:34:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 03:29:01 GMT
NHC Webmaster
1 year 2 months ago
Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 050233
TCDEP1
Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024
After maintaining a relatively well-organized structure on satellite
imagery for most of the day Thursday, Aletta appears a bit less
impressive over the past few hours. The latest objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, while the subjective
numbers from TAFB and SAB range from 30-35 kt. At this time, there
is no reason to change the initial intensity estimate of 35 kt,
especially given that we should receive some ASCAT data within the
next couple of hours.
Although Aletta is currently located within an environment of low
vertical wind shear, the cyclone is forecast to reach cooler waters
and move into a drier airmass over the next 12 h or so. While it is
possible that Aletta could maintain its intensity for another 6 to
12 h, weakening is expected to commence by Friday morning, if not
sooner. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models
show Aletta losing its convection by late Friday, and the new NHC
forecast calls for Aletta to become a remnant low in 24 h.
Aletta has been moving a bit more quickly to the northwest or 305
degrees at 12 kt. A turn to the west is expected tonight. As Aletta
loses its convection, it will be steered westward to
west-southwestward by the low-level flow before it dissipates on
Saturday. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit farther
north and faster to the west, based mainly on the faster motion
observed over the past 6 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 18.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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