National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250833 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.3W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250833 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 114.3W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 114.3 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is expected to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...BUD A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Jul 25 the center of Bud was located near 17.9, -114.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located more than one thousand miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is associated with
some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of
this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 02:37:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 03:22:40 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250236 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 Bud is a sheared tropical storm. The surface center lies near the eastern edge of the coldest cloud tops associated with recent bursts of deep convection. The sharp edge to the cloud tops indicates that easterly shear is restricting the upper-level outflow over the eastern portion of the circulation. TAFB provided a T-2.5/35 kt subjective Dvorak estimate, which is consistent with the objective satellite intensity estimates and the earlier scatterometer data. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The effects of moderate shear and some drier air in the surrounding environment could make it difficult for Bud to become better organized in the near term. While some slight strengthening cannot be ruled out given the small size of the storm, all of the dynamical intensity models show a weakening trend during the next couple of days. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Bud could struggle to produce organized convection by late Thursday. The latest NHC forecast calls for Bud to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 h and dissipate on Saturday. Bud is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. The storm should turn westward over the next day or so as it moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. No significant changes were made to the official NHC forecast for this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.5N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.9N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 17.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 16.6N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250234 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250234 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 ...BUD MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 113.3W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 113.3 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a slower southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...BUD MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Jul 24 the center of Bud was located near 17.5, -113.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Bud, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located more than one thousand miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is associated with
some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of
this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bud are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:34:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 21:22:51 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 242032 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 242032 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 ...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 112.2W ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 112.2 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn to the west is expected tonight or early Thursday. A slower motion toward the southwest is expected by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, with steady weakening expected to begin by Thursday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 24 the center of Bud was located near 17.1, -112.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241907
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1210 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure
system offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico (EP93).

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing winds to tropical storm force
south and east of its center. The associated showers and
thunderstorms have also increased in organization during the day,
and if this activity continues, then advisories would likely be
initiated on a tropical storm later this afternoon. The low is
forecast to move westward around 15 mph, away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located more than one thousand miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula remains disorganized. Development
of this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become better organized today. This system could become a
short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two before
it reaches an environment that is less favorable for development.
The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located more than one thousand miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula remains disorganized. Development
of this system appears unlikely over the next several days while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241129
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have changed little in organization since yesterday.
Environmental conditions could allow for some slow development over
the next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula has diminished some since yesterday.
Development of this system appears unlikely over the next few days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

882
ABPZ20 KNHC 240502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have changed little in organization since earlier today.
Environmental conditions could allow for some slow development over
the next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have changed little in organization during the day. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some slow development over the
next couple of days while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico have changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow
development over the next couple of days while the disturbance moves
generally west-northwestward, remaining offshore of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight
development of this system over the next few days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph across the central
and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg