National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 114 WTPZ32 KNHC 051438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Paine Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 ...PAINE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 114.5W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Paine was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 114.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west are expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Paine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...PAINE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Oct 5 the center of Paine was located near 18.4, -114.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 051438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.5W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 15SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.5W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

950
ABPZ20 KNHC 041733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Paine, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is currently producing only a few
showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system over
the next few days is likely to be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds and nearby dry air. The low is forecast to
move generally westward to west-northwestward remaining
south of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Paine are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Paine are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2022 14:47:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Oct 2022 15:23:38 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 041445 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 9 18(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 041445 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 Deep convection continues to burst around the western portion of Paine's circulation. Infrared and early-light visible satellite imagery suggests that there has been some increase in convective banding, and that the center is slightly more embedded within the colder cloud tops. Despite the slight increase in organization, subjective and objective Dvorak classifications have not changed much and still support an initial intensity of 35 kt. Hopefully scatterometer data will provide additional information on the size and intensity of Paine this afternoon. Paine still has a very brief window of opportunity in which to intensify. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low today, but is expected to increase significantly tonight and Wednesday. Therefore, some slight strengthening is predicted, followed by gradual weakening due to the unfavorable upper-level environment and an increasing dry mid-level air mass. Paine is expected to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and dissipate around day 3. The cyclone is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. Paine should continue northwestward for the 24-36 hours around the western side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a bend to the west-northwest and west is predicted as Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 041445 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022 ...PAINE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 113.0W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 113.0 West. Paine is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the west on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Weakening is expected to begin tonight, with Paine degenerating into a remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...PAINE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 the center of Paine was located near 17.5, -113.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 041444 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022 1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031755
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Orlene, which is located inland over southwestern Mexico.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
thunderstorm activity is currently displaced to the southwest the
low-level center, only a slight increase in organization would
result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or
tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly northward or
northward-northwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this
system over the next several days is likely to be slow to occur due
to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn
northwestward toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2022 17:54:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 03 Oct 2022 15:22:27 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031753 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 105.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Mazatlan to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Bahia Tempehuaya A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. Orlene is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene will move farther inland over west-central Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected through tonight, and Orlene is forecast to dissipate tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area through this afternoon. RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday: Northern Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10 inches. Southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches. These rainfall amounts should lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, southern portions of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 the center of Orlene was located near 23.3, -105.5 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Radar data from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, showed that the eyewall of Orlene moved onshore earlier this morning, but it appears that there was some east-northeast to west-southwest tilt between the mid-level center seen in the radar imagery and the surface center due to moderate to strong west-southwesterly shear. It is estimated that Orlene made landfall around 1345 UTC just north of the border of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa. The maximum winds and minimum pressure at landfall were estimated at 75 kt and 980 mb, respectively. With the center moving farther inland, the intensity has been reduced to 65 kt. Rapid weakening is expected to occur today as Orlene interacts with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico and moves into an area of even stronger west-southwesterly shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical depression by this evening, and dissipate tonight or early Tuesday. Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 020/9 kt. There is again no change to the track forecast philosophy. The cyclone should continue to move north-northeastward around the northwestern side of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted east of the previous advisory due to a more eastward initial position. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon. 2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. 3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.9N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 24.7N 104.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 031448 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022 661 WTPZ21 KNHC 031447 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL HURRICANE WATCHES, AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 105.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 105.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.7N 104.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 105.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 17:48:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2022 15:22:44 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021747 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ORLENE... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER THE ISLAS MARIAS... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 106.9W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas * The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 106.9 West. Orlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Orlene should pass near or over Las Islas Marias tonight or Monday morning, and reach the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later on Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Orlene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next day or so, however Orlene is forecast to be a strong hurricane when it passes near or over the Islas Marias, and remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico late Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the tropical storm warning area today through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane watch area by tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today. RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday: * Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches. * Nayarit and Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of 10 inches. * Jalisco and Colima: 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches. These rainfall amounts will likely lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ORLENE... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER THE ISLAS MARIAS... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 the center of Orlene was located near 19.9, -106.9 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.