National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 221440 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 84(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 52(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 25(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 34 X 17(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MAZATLAN 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 88(88) 7(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAN BLAS 50 X 49(49) 21(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SAN BLAS 64 X 20(20) 22(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) P VALLARTA 34 3 83(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) P VALLARTA 50 X 35(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) P VALLARTA 64 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MANZANILLO 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221439 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Oct 2022 17:49:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Oct 2022 15:22:27 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located a couple of hundred miles off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211746 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 ...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 104.8W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Punta Mita A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.8 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday, followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. While Roslyn has changed little in strength over the past several hours, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by late Saturday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 the center of Roslyn was located near 16.4, -104.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211456 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 Visible satellite imagery suggests that Roslyn is getting better organized, with the formation of a central dense overcast with overshooting tops near the center. A recent GMI overpass indicates these tops are related to a partial eyewall that has formed under the overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain near 55 kt, and based on these data the initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory. One note is that there seem to be a tongue of dry air wrapping cyclonically around the CDO from the northwest to southeast. It should be noted that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled due to mechanical issues. The recent satellite data suggest that the center is a little south of the previous track, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/6 kt. Despite this shift, there is little change in the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Roslyn is still expected to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level ridge that will migrate eastward across Mexico during the next couple of days. This will lead to the center passing near or a little west of Cabo Corrientes in about 36 h, followed by landfall in mainland Mexico. There is little change to either the forecast guidance or the official forecast track since the last advisory, and the new track lies near or just east of the various consensus models. Since Roslyn is developing a better defined inner core, its current environment of light shear and warm sea surface temperatures could allow for rapid intensification. One obstacle to that, though, is the dry air currently near the core. The GFS, HRWF, and HMON models forecast this dry air to get mixed out during the next 12-24 h, and based on this premise, the new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast in showing rapid strengthening to a peak intensity of 95 kt before landfall. After landfall, Roslyn is expected to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and although the official forecast shows a remnant low over northern Mexico in 72 hours for continuity, Roslyn will likely dissipate before then. The new forecast requires a northward extension of the hurricane warning along the coast of Mexico. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on the next advisory. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico and will likely be extended northward later today. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.4N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211456 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 4( 6) 34(40) 44(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 36(42) 15(57) X(57) X(57) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 55(65) 7(72) X(72) X(72) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 28(32) 34(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 15(16) 22(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 6 27(33) 15(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MANZANILLO 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 211455 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO PUNTA MITA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.4W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.4W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 104.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently-upgraded Tropical Storm Roslyn, located a couple of
hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Roslyn are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Roslyn are issued under WMO
header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Oct 2022 14:50:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Oct 2022 15:22:35 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 728 WTPZ44 KNHC 201449 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Convection associated with the cyclone has become a bit better organized since the last advisory, with a strong cluster having developed near the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now near 35 kt, and based on this the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Roslyn with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system has strengthened, recent microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggests that multiple low-level swirls are present near the center, indicating that the inner core has not yet tightened up. The initial motion is now 275/5 kt along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the storm. In addition, a deep-layer low pressure area is currently located southwest of California, and west of the ridge. These features are forecast to move slowly eastward during the next few days, with the deep-layer steering flow near Roslyn changing from easterly to southeasterly to southerly and eventually to southwesterly. This evolution should cause the storm to recurve between the ridge and the low and make landfall in western Mexico. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However, there is some spread regarding how quickly Roslyn will recurve. The GFS is on the right side of the guidance envelope with the center passing near Cabo Corrientes, while the UKMET and ECMWF are farther west. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast and calls for the center to pass just west of Cabo Corrientes in about 72 h, followed by landfall in mainland Mexico before 96 h. The new forecast track is near or a little to the east of the consensus models. Roslyn is currently over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear. These conditions are likely to persist for the next 72 h or so, and they should allow Roslyn to steadily intensify. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to a forecast increase in shear, the possibility of dry air entrainment, and the possibility of land interaction. The new NHC forecast is generally similar to the previous forecast, although it has a slightly lower peak intensity before landfall in mainland Mexico due to a downward trend in the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, with the cyclone dissipating over the mountains of Mexico between 96-120 h. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system, and hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required for portions of this coastline later today. 2. Heavy rainfall from Roslyn could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.2N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201448 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 17(59) X(59) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 17(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) X(35) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 28(48) X(48) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 16(51) X(51) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 6(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 32(36) 3(39) X(39) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 30(47) 2(49) X(49) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 613 WTPZ24 KNHC 201448 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 612 WTPZ34 KNHC 201448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a northward motion by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or over the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Roslyn outer rainbands may produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas of Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Roslyn is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 the center of Roslyn was located near 15.2, -102.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area
located a couple hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico continues to become better organized. In addition, recent
satellite wind data indicates the circulation is becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight as the system moves generally west-northwestward,
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the
southwestern and western coasts of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. This system has become a little
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression
is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle part of
this week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development as the system moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin