National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

042
ABPZ20 KNHC 291708
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

859
ABPZ20 KNHC 271714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located over west-central mainland Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 104.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF THE CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings south of San Blas. The Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Escuinapa has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over west-central Mexico through this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening and dissipate tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland through portions of west-central Mexico through late afternoon or early evening. Wind speeds atop hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of west-central Mexico: Upper coast of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Southeastern Sinaloa, southern Durango into southwestern Zacatecas: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of Mexico within the warning area should gradually subside this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2022 17:43:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2022 15:22:23 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231453 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Satellite imagery indicated that Roslyn made landfall earlier this morning around 1120 UTC near Santa Cruz in the Mexican state of Nayarit. The maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be 105 kt and 958 mb, respectively. An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 71 kt and a gust of 108 kt within the past hour or so. The hurricane has moved farther inland and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt based on a standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to continue to occur today as Roslyn interacts with the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico and encounters strengthening vertical wind shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon and dissipate tonight or early Monday, if not sooner. Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should continue to accelerate across west-central Mexico towards the north-northeast for the next day or so along the northwest periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. A 24 hour position has been forecast for the sake of continuity, though it is expected that the low-level circulation will have dissipated by then. Key Messages: 1. Damaging winds will spread inland along the track of Roslyn over west-central mainland Mexico through late this afternoon. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 22.8N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 231452 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 231450 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUNTA MITA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS WELL AS THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 105.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 the center of Roslyn was located near 23.8, -104.4 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221756
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Roslyn, located about 155 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Oct 2022 17:51:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Oct 2022 15:23:25 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221751 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER NOW INVESTIGATING ROSLYN... ...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 106.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of El Roblito to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo * North of El Roblito to Mazatlan A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through midday today, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast this afternoon. Although some weakening is possible beginning tonight, Roslyn is expected to still be near or at major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the northern coast. Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER NOW INVESTIGATING ROSLYN... ...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 the center of Roslyn was located near 18.4, -106.6 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221440 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of a cold central dense overcast. Given the rate of intensification, the actual intensity is a bit of a moving target. However, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are currently in the 105-115 kt range, and based on the latest CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Roslyn. The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 330/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous advisory. Roslyn is expected to continue recurving around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The track guidance continues to indicate that the hurricane will pass just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, tonight, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall, Roslyn or its remnants are expected to accelerate toward the northeast over northern Mexico. The new forecast track has mainly noise-level adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening during the next 6-12 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Roslyn to strengthen some more during that time. After that, increasing southwesterly vertical shear and land interaction should cause some weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidentals. The intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate soon thereafter. However, both of these could occur earlier than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 18.0N 106.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven