National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030855 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 120.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 122.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 128.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.1N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030855 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 118.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 118.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today, but weakening should begin by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.9, -118.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030531
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little less organized in
association with an area of low pressure located well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. This system could still become a short-lived tropical
depression before environmental conditions become unfavorable for
development in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 02:50:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 03:31:32 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 275 WTPZ43 KNHC 030248 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Carlotta has changed little in structure this evening. Infrared geostationary satellite imagery continues to show hints of a clouded eye embedded in a central dense overcast with upper-level outflow present in all quadrants. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77-kt and objective estimates range between 71-82 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 75 kt in the middle of these estimates. The hurricane is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge centered over the southwestern United States is forecast to steer Carlotta westward for another day or so. Later this weekend, the hurricane is expected to turn to the west-northwest around the southwest edge of the ridge. Carlotta should turn back to the west as it weakens later in the forecast period. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track forecast. The window for additional strengthening is growing smaller. Within a day, Carlotta is expected to be over cooler ocean waters and begin weakening. By Sunday night or Monday morning, the vertical wind shear is forecast to notably increase and steadily weaken the hurricane. Simulated satellite imagery from global models indicate that Carlotta should lose its convection by day 4. The official intensity forecast is above most guidance in the near-term prediction, and closer to the various consensus aids for the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.8N 117.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 764 FOPZ13 KNHC 030247 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 64 20(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 120W 50 7 15(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 120W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 43(45) 30(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 317 WTPZ33 KNHC 030247 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...HURRICANE CARLOTTA HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 117.9W ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 117.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. By Saturday night, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast within the next day, followed by steady weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are beginning to subside and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HURRICANE CARLOTTA HEADING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.8, -117.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 622 WTPZ23 KNHC 030246 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022351
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little
in organization since earlier today. Despite marginal environmental
conditions, a tropical depression could form over the next day or so
as the low meanders. By late this weekend, environmental conditions
are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development as
the system moves northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022038 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 While Carlotta remains a small hurricane, its structure appears rather healthy, with a distinct central dense overcast and a clouded over eye appearing on visible or infrared imagery. There was also a GPM microwave pass at 1623 UTC which showed a well-organized inner-core with a small eyewall. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate was T4.5/77-kt, and objective estimates range from 65-82 kt, so the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt for this advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted some thanks to a helpful afternoon scatterometer pass. Carlotta is moving a little more westward this afternoon, estimated at 280/12 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast philosophy, with well-established ridging poleward of Carlotta expected to maintain this westward to west-northwestward heading over the next several days, albeit with a gradual slowdown. By the end of the forecast as Carlotta loses its deep convection, it will turn westward as it primarily becomes steered by the low-level flow. The track guidance was little changed from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory. The hurricane has another 24 hours over sufficently warm waters and light to moderate vertical wind shear to intensify a bit more, and the NHC intensity forecast maintains a peak intensity at 85 kt, or Category 2 intensity. However, Carlotta then moves over less than 26 C sea surface temperatures beyond that time frame, and this coupled with the hurricane moving into increasingly dry and stable air, should induce gradual weakening. This process will also be hastened by increasing southwesterly shear beyond 60 h, and Carlotta will likely lose convective organization sometime in the days 4 or 5 time-frame, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is in pretty good agreement with the consensus intensity aids, and is a little lower after 24 hours than the prior NHC intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.7N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 20:38:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 21:29:00 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 022037 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 3 85(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 120W 50 X 39(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 64 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 49(64) 8(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022037 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.4W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.4W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 022037 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...HURRICANE CARLOTTA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 116.4W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 116.4 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a general westward to west-northwestward motion with a gradual slowdown is forecasted over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening beginning by early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...HURRICANE CARLOTTA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.7, -116.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021856
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1155 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure in the Western part of the East Pacific (EP95).

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has a well-defined circulation and is
producing winds up to 35 mph. Despite marginal environmental
conditions, any improvement in the current convective organization
could result formation of a tropical depression over the next day or
two as the low meanders over open waters, then begins to move
northeastward by late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized compared to yesterday near and just west of an area of low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. However, marginal environmental
conditions are likely to limit development of this system during
the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters
during the next day or so, then begin moving northeastward by late
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021440 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Since the previous advisory, Carlotta's structure on satellite imagery has improved, with a banding eye showing up on both infrared and visible frames. We have been also receiving helpful surface observations from Isla Clarion which earlier reported sustained winds of 47 kt with a gust of 71 kt and a minimum pressure of 986 mb as Carlotta passed by just to the north. These data, along with subjective and objective intensity estimates in the 65-77 kt range are the basis to increase the initial intensity to 70 kt, making Carlotta the first hurricane of the East Pacific season. Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward, estimated at 285/12-kt. This heading with a gradual slowdown is expected to continue for the next several days as the hurricane remains influenced by a large deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The track guidance this cycle has not changed much other than another subtle shift north again, and the NHC track forecast was nudged again in that direction. The small hurricane has an opportunity to intensify further over the next day or so while it remains over warm ocean waters and low to moderate vertical wind shear. Similar to the previous advisory, the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane in 24-36 hours. However beyond that time, sea-surface temperatures decrease under 26 C and continue to cool as the environmental moisture becomes increasingly dry and stable. Thus, weakening should begin in earnest after that time period, with the system becoming post-tropical as it loses its remaining convection by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin