National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...ADRIAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 the center of Adrian was located near 16.4, -110.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292043 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 114.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

250
ABPZ20 KNHC 291739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Adrian, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Two-E, located about 150 miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2023 20:38:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2023 21:22:46 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 28 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 282036 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC WED JUN 28 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 83 12(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 110W 50 18 24(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 110W 64 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 23(44) 1(45) X(45) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 14(21) 12(33) 1(34) X(34) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Despite the well-defined structure noted in microwave imagery from this morning, Adrian's visible and infrared satellite presentation is quite ragged. An eye appears to be forming, but deep convection appears thin within the northern eyewall, possibly due to continued northerly shear beneath the outflow level. Still, both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have risen since this morning, and Adrian's initial intensity is therefore set at 70 kt. Recent fixes suggest the hurricane has slowed down, and the initial motion estimate is westward, or 275/5 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging to the north of Adrian is expected to weaken during the next couple of days as a mid-level trough develops west of the Baja California peninsula, and that should keep the hurricane's forward motion relatively slow toward the west or west-northwest for the entire forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids, and the guidance envelope is tightly clustered through at least day 3. However, it's notable that the HCCA aid is slower than much of the other guidance, and given Adrian's recent slower-than-expected motion, it's possible that future forecasts could be slowed down further to account for this trend. There is a noticeable dichotomy in the intensity guidance, with the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models showing much more additional intensification compared to the dynamical models and consensus aids, which show Adrian's intensity flat-lining soon. A little more strengthening is indicated in the NHC intensity forecast since vertical shear is expected to be low for the next 36 to 48 hours. Fast weakening is anticipated after 48 hours due to a significant increase in easterly shear, as well as cooler waters. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECWMF models suggests that Adrian could lose deep convection by day 4, and the official forecast therefore calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low around that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.3N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.5N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 16.1N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 16.4N 113.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 16.8N 114.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 17.1N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 17.6N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z 17.6N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Adrian Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023 ...ADRIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 108.4W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Adrian was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 108.4 West. Adrian is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast into Thursday. Weakening is likely to begin Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...ADRIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 the center of Adrian was located near 15.3, -108.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 28 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 282035 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC WED JUN 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.5N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.4N 113.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 114.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.1N 115.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.6N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Adrian, located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane Adrian are issued under WMO header
WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane Adrian are issued under WMO header
WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 789 WTPZ41 KNHC 272218 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 The low pressure system located a few hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico has quickly become better organized since last night, in terms of both its center definition and convective structure. ASCAT passes received a few hours ago indicated that the low has a well-defined center, and the system is already producing winds of around 40 kt. Based on this, advisories are being initiated on Adrian, the first tropical cyclone (and named storm) of the 2023 eastern Pacific season. With Adrian's center only recently forming, the initial motion is an uncertain 280/13 kt. A weakening subtropical ridge stretching across northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer Adrian generally westward during the next 3 days, but with its forward speed gradually decreasing during that time. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement during this period. There is significantly more uncertainty after day 3, and Adrian is expected to slow down further and turn toward the northwest and north due to (1) a developing mid- to upper-level low west of the Baja California peninsula and (2) possible interaction with another weather system to its east closer to the coast of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids on days 4 and 5. Relatively low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29 degrees Celsius are likely to foster strengthening. In fact, some of the rapid intensification (RI) indices suggest that RI could occur, and the NHC forecast shows fast strengthening during the next couple of days. In general, the official intensity forecast is above the intensities of the hurricane regional models since they don't seem to be initializing the storm's structure very well. Model guidance suggests that moderate to strong easterly shear could develop over Adrian in about 3 days, with the storm also reaching cooler waters by around days 4 and 5. Therefore, weakening is indicated in the forecast toward the end of the forecast period. Adrian's genesis marks the second-latest formation of the first named storm during the eastern Pacific hurricane season, after Tropical Storm Agatha of 2016 which formed on July 2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 15.3N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 15.4N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.4N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 15.5N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 15.6N 111.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 16.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2023 20:40:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2023 21:22:44 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 272038 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 23(23) 56(79) 5(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 110W 50 X 4( 4) 43(47) 5(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 1(18) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 8(29) 5(34) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 31(36) 10(46) 3(49) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 272037 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.4N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.5N 110.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.6N 111.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 272037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023 ...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 106.0W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 106.0 West. Adrian is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Adrian is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 the center of Adrian was located near 15.3, -106.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Satellite wind data received within the past hour indicate that the
low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, has become much better organized, and it
appears that a tropical storm is forming. Advisories will be
initiated on this system at 2 PM PDT. This system is expected to
move westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next few days, away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the latter part of this week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the southern
and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

746
ABPZ20 KNHC 261751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southern and Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
along a surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of this
week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is associated with an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week while it moves slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern
coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity remains
disorganized, but environmental conditions still appear generally
favorable for gradual development of this broad system. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle part of this week as
the system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so
several hundred miles south of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
to latter part of this week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward,
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin