National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 122033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 113.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 113.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.6N 121.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 5SE 5SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.6N 130.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 136.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 143.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BERG

540
ABPZ20 KNHC 121736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Calvin, located about 700 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Calvin are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Calvin
are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2023 20:36:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Jul 2023 21:22:53 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 112033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Deep convection has been increasing in intensity and coverage near the center of the system during the past several hours. Recent ASCAT scatterometer passes indicate that the low has developed a well-defined center and maximum winds of around 30 kt on its west side. The estimated center position is a bit uncertain since there are considerable convective clouds obscuring it. The low now meets the criteria of a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and a Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression is moving quickly to the west-northwest and the initial motion is estimated to be 290/18 kt. The steering pattern for the depression seems fairly straightforward. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of the system is expected to remain in place during the next several days. Therefore, the west-northwestward motion will continue throughout the forecast period. The models are in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Tropical Depression Three-E is currently over warm SSTs and will remain over warm ocean temperatures through the next several days. Dynamical guidance indicates that the depression is currently dealing with some northeasterly shear, and that shear will continue during the next day or so. Thereafter, vertical wind shear is expected to decrease for several days. This lower wind shear and warm SSTs will foster a conducive environment for strengthening through the end of the week. The intensity forecast reflects gradual strengthening in the short-term, with the system strengthening into a hurricane in about 3 days. Towards the end of the forecast period, the tropical cyclone will be moving over cooling SSTs, which should end the strengthening phase and cause gradual weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 12.5N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 12.8N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 12.9N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 13.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 13.2N 118.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 13.7N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 14.3N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 15.7N 130.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 112033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 27(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 16(74) X(74) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 15(39) X(39) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 4(56) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 112032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.9W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.9W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.9N 113.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.2N 118.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.7N 121.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.3N 124.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 15.7N 130.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 112032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 107.9W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 107.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and it is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 the center of Three-E was located near 12.5, -107.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. The system
does not yet have a well-defined center, but is producing winds
near tropical storm force on its west side. Any additional
organization of the low-level center will lead to a tropical storm
developing later today or tonight. The system is expected to move
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the next several
days. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

029
ABPZ20 KNHC 101724
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located
a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days. The system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

371
ABPZ20 KNHC 091718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased this morning, and
remains disorganized around the broad low several hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. By tonight, the system is
expected to move west-northwestward into a less favorable
environment well west of the coast of mainland Mexico. Therefore,
development of a tropical cyclone is becoming less likely.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure a few hundred miles south of southern
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the middle of the week. The system is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward, remaining well
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better
organized in association with a large area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. If this trend
continues, advisories will likely be initiated on this system later
today or tonight. The low is expected to move generally
west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland Mexico during
the next few days. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure a few hundred miles south of southern
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early to middle portions of next week.
The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
parallel to, but well offshore of the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, are gradually becoming better organized.
However, satellite imagery suggests that the circulation of the
low is elongated and lacks a well-defined center at this time.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next day or so while the disturbance moves
generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland
Mexico. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located well south-southeast of
southeastern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week. The
system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward parallel
to, but well offshore, of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

202
ABPZ20 KNHC 061737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form over the weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system and a tropical depression will likely
form by this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward,
off the coast of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 4 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles
off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system and a tropical depression could form late
this week or over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward, away from the coast of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system and a tropical depression could form late
this week or over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Jul 2023 20:32:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Jul 2023 21:22:47 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022031 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023 This has been no deep convection associated with Adrian for over 12 hours, and it is doubtful that any organized convection will return. Therefore, Adrian is now a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt, based on satellite-estimated surface winds. The remnant low should continue to gradually spin down over the cooler sea surface temperatures and open into a trough of low pressure during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the intensity model consensus. Adrian is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. The remnant low should make a gradual turn to the west over the next couple of days in the low-level flow and model guidance suggests it will likely open into a trough of low pressure beyond day 2. This is the final NHC advisory of Adrian. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 03/0600Z 20.2N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1800Z 20.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 20.3N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 20.2N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 02 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022030 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 1 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI