National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Daniel's convective structure continues to sputter along, with the coldest cloud tops organized in two regions to the northeast and southwest of the center, which appears to be mostly exposed this morning. The latest round of both subjective and objective intensity guidance has not changed much from overnight, and so the initial intensity remains 35 kt this advisory. It appears that the tropical storm is finally starting to track more north-northeastward this morning, with the estimated motion at 030/4 kt. A somewhat faster northeastward motion is expected to begin later today through Monday as Daniel's motion is influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal flow being picked up by Carlotta passing to the north. The global models still show a turn north and northwestward as Daniel gets caught in the outer periphery of Carlotta's larger circulation. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior advisory, close to the multi-model consensus. While the vertical wind shear that was previously affecting Daniel is starting to subside, there is quite a bit of environmental dry air to the north of the storm, which will likely keep it in check, and only a modest amount of intensification is forecasted. After 48 h, this dry air is expected to fully envelop the circulation, choking off the remaining convection, marking the storm's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low is finally forecast to open up into a trough by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.2N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041435 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 125W 50 23 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 125W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Carlotta's deep convection has become quite limited this morning. Subjective Dvorak and objective satellite estimates like the UW-CIMSS ADT are all decreasing, and support an initial intensity estimate of 55 kt. No changes of note were made to the NHC forecast, and further weakening should continue as Carlotta moves over SSTs that are already below 25 deg C. The SSTs will only get colder during the next couple of days as Carlotta moves along the forecast track. The tropical storm is forecast by most models to lose its remaining deep convection in about 48 h, and based on current trends this could occur even sooner. Dissipation is still expected around mid-week. The tropical storm is still moving westward to west-northwestward. This general motion should continue for the next day or two as Carlotta is steered by a deep-layer ridge centered well to its northeast. As the cyclone weakens further and becomes more vertically shallow, low-level steering will likely cause it to turn westward and slow down slightly in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.9N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 662 WTPZ45 KNHC 041435 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 Convection associated with a low located well offshore Mexico has steadily increased in coverage and organization since yesterday. Overnight ASCAT and first-light visible imagery indicate that the cyclone also has a well-defined, if somewhat broad, circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 2.0 at 1200 UTC, which support initiating advisories on the system as a 30 kt depression. The depression is located within a very convectively active environment over the east Pacific, deep-layer wind shear is low, and SSTs are plenty warm, so strengthening is expected in the short term. The biggest source of uncertainty for this forecast is an expected interaction with a larger disturbance, currently Invest 96E, which is approaching from the east. Based on the available global and hurricane dynamical model forecasts, the most likely scenario is that 96E will be the dominant system. In that case, the new depression will only have a short window to strengthen before it is wrapped into and dissipates within the other circulation. Models historically handle interaction cases like this poorly, so confidence in the forecast is not high, despite the near universal agreement between the dynamical guidance on this upcoming evolution. The NHC forecast is very close to the consensus guidance through 24 to 36 h. After that, the model trackers appear to be getting fooled by the close proximity of 96E and TD Five-E and are following the stronger vortex instead. The NHC forecast is based heavily on a broad consensus of model fields beyond 36 h and shows dissipation occuring by 60 h. There is some chance that the depression could persist longer than forecast if the two systems remain farther apart, however there is not enough guidance with a trackable vortex to justify an explicit forecast beyond what is currently shown. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.5N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 14.1N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 663 WTPZ23 KNHC 041435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 124.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 124.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 123.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 661 WTPZ33 KNHC 041435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...CARLOTTA SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 124.0W ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 124.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or two. Carlotta's forward motion is forecast to slow down gradually as it becomes a remnant low in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...CARLOTTA SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.9, -124.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 041434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.5N 113.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.1N 112.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 041434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 112.9W ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 112.9 West. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow generally southward motion is expected to begin later today and continue into Monday. A sharp turn back toward the north is possible by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected today and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. The cyclone will then begin to interact with another larger disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Aug 4 the center of Five-E was located near 15.8, -112.9 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 041434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 041434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DANIEL BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 130.4W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 130.4 West. Daniel is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DANIEL BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Daniel was located near 13.2, -130.4 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041433 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041210 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Corrected to update active systems and include statement for gale
warnings for EP96.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles to
the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Daniel, located more than one
thousand miles to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a broad area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico. Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For
more information of this system, including Gale Warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during that time while the system meanders within weak steering
currents. Thereafter, the system is forecast to interact with the
disturbance (EP96) to its southeast, which should limit the chances
of further development afterwards.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a broad area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico. Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during that time while the system meanders within weak steering
currents. Thereafter, the system is forecast to interact with the
disturbance (EP96) to its southeast, which should limit the chances
of further development afterwards.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Papin/D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 08:50:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 09:34:55 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 649 WTPZ44 KNHC 040849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Daniel is not a particularly well organized tropical cyclone, and the satellite presentation suggests the storm could be elongated from southwest to northeast. However, it continues to produce some deep convection near the estimated center position. Unfortunately, recent scatterometer data swaths missed Daniel overnight. The latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and AiDT estimates as well as the subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB support keeping the initial intensity at 35 kt. The initial position of Daniel is uncertain, but it appears the storm is presently drifting northward. A faster northeastward motion is expected later today through Monday due to increasing southwesterly low- to mid-level flow while Tropical Storm Carlotta passes to the north. Most of the global models show Daniel becoming caught in the outer circulation of Carlotta, and the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted beyond 36 h to show Daniel slowing down and turning toward the north and northwest later in the period. These adjustments reflect the latest trends in the multi-model consensus aids. In the short term, the moderate northeasterly shear that has plagued Daniel is forecast to diminish. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit of strengthening during the next day or so, but this is primarily related to the northeastward acceleration of the storm as opposed to significant deepening of the low. As Daniel make a counter-clockwise turn around the outer circulation of Carlotta, it appears that significant dry air entrainment will make it difficult for the storm to sustain organized convection. The NHC forecast indicates Daniel will weaken to a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate around midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 12.5N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.3N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 18.7N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 840 FOPZ14 KNHC 040847 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 290 WTPZ34 KNHC 040847 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DANIEL STILL DRIFTING OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 130.6W ABOUT 1535 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 130.6 West. Daniel is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart