National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Jul 2023 20:52:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Jul 2023 21:28:39 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023 004 WTPZ43 KNHC 142048 TCDEP3 Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023 The satellite appearance of Calvin remains impressive this afternoon. Its well-defined eye is surrounded by a ring of deep, cold convective cloud tops, and visible satellite imagery shows healthy upper-level anticyclonic outflow in all quadrants of the hurricane. While some drier mid-level air appears to be wrapping around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, Calvin's inner core still appears intact at this time. The various objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 106-115 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt for this advisory. Some of the initial wind radii values were adjusted based on a recently processed 1402 UTC RCM-3 synthetic aperture radar overpass over Calvin. Although some small intensity fluctuations cannot be ruled out in the near term, Calvin is likely near its peak intensity. The hurricane is expected to move over cooler waters tomorrow and into a drier, more stable environment through early next week. Calvin should also encounter some increased southwesterly vertical wind shear later in the forecast period. Therefore, weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow and continue into next week. The convective structure of Calvin later in the forecast period is a source of uncertainty, with the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B) showing more of a TC-like structure while the global models (GFS and ECMWF) show it almost devoid of convection. For now, the forecast does not show Calvin becoming post-tropical until day 5. The latest intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope through 48 h, then closely follows the multi-model consensus aids thereafter. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 285/14 kt. This general motion will continue for the next several days as Calvin is steered by a mid-level ridge that extends westward across the eastern subtropical Pacific. Once again, the track models are in good agreement on this scenario. The updated NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, but just a bit slower at days 3-5 based on the latest model consensus trends. Calvin is expected to cross 140W and move into the central Pacific basin by early Monday morning, then approach the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Calvin is forecast to move across the central Pacific Ocean and approach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. It is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts given uncertainties in the track, intensity, and structure of Calvin as it approaches the islands. Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.8N 124.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.1N 129.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 16.9N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.4N 141.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 19.0N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 998 FOPZ13 KNHC 142047 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 125W 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 2 91(93) 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 130W 50 X 60(60) 24(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 130W 64 X 30(30) 32(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 14(14) 47(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023 022 WTPZ33 KNHC 142047 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Calvin Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023 ...CALVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 124.6W ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Calvin. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Calvin was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 124.6 West. Calvin is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Calvin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast to commence tomorrow and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CALVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Jul 14 the center of Calvin was located near 13.8, -124.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142045 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 124.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 124.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 132.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 138.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 156.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Calvin, located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Jul 2023 20:33:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Jul 2023 21:22:57 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 13 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132031 TCDEP3 Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 13 2023 High-resolution 1-minute visible satellite imagery shows the inner core of Calvin becoming better defined with deep convective banding wrapping around the center. In the past hour or so, satellite trends show what may be the beginning stages of eye trying to develop, and this would be in agreement with what was reflected in microwaves passes from earlier this morning. The upper-level outflow wind pattern has continued to become better established around the cyclone as well. Subjective satellite Dvorak estimates were T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the improved satellite structure and a blend of the subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to 70 kt for this advisory. The cyclone continues to be over warm sea surface temperatures and within a low vertical wind shear environment, with gradual strengthening forecast for the next day or so. The forecast peak intensity remains 85 kt in 24-36 hours. However, there was some model guidance this cycle, particularly HCCA, that showed the potential for the system to become a little bit stronger than that. After 36 hours, sea surface temperatures along the track of Calvin will gradually begin to cool, and this will likely induce gradual weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper-end of the guidance in the short term, then shows gradual weakening, and is near the consensus aids by the end of the period. Calvin is moving westward at 275/12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Calvin will continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward. The track guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement, with the consensus aids and HCCA coming into better agreement with the forward speed compared to previous model cycles. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 12.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.2N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.2N 135.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 17.3N 141.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.2N 149.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 1 22(23) 57(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 125W 50 X 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 68(73) 17(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 24(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 3(50) X(50) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BERG

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 13 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Calvin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 13 2023 ...HURRICANE CALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 118.7W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Calvin was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend, as Calvin begins to move over cooler water. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Berg

...HURRICANE CALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Jul 13 the center of Calvin was located near 12.8, -118.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132030 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 118.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 118.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 120.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 123.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 135.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 141.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Calvin, located about 850 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the central potion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Jul 2023 20:37:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Jul 2023 21:23:00 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 12 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 12 2023 Tropical Storm Calvin continues to strengthen this morning, with an improved structure on hi-res GOES visible satellite imagery. A curved band is beginning to wrap around the center, however, the band has not yet completely filled in around the northern side. Subjective satellite Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, while the latest objective estimates from SATCON and ADT are higher than 55 kt. Given the improved structure on satellite, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this advisory based on a blend of the various intensity estimates. Calvin is in a conducive environment for strengthening, with light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. Steady strengthening is forecast the next several days, with Calvin potentially becoming a hurricane later tonight. Rapid intensification (RI) guidance has increased on this cycle and now shows a roughly 3-in-10 chance for RI to occur during the next 24 hours. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, and the peak intensity has been slightly raised from the previous forecast. By the weekend, Calvin is expected to cross over cooler SSTs which will likely cause gradual weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. Calvin is moving westward or 275/15 kt. A strong ridge located to the north of Calvin will continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the track--the main difference is the forward speed of Calvin with some models moving the storm a little faster (particularly HCCA). The updated NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope, but is a little on the faster side of forecast ensembles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 12.8N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 12.9N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 13.1N 118.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 13.6N 121.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 14.3N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 14.9N 127.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 15.6N 130.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 16.8N 136.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 17.8N 143.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 122035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 37(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 63(66) 22(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 27(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 69(70) 4(74) X(74) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 3(38) X(38) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BERG

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 12 2023 595 WTPZ33 KNHC 122034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Calvin Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 12 2023 ...CALVIN STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 113.8W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Calvin was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 113.8 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Calvin is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Berg

...CALVIN STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Jul 12 the center of Calvin was located near 12.8, -113.8 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 122033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 113.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 113.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.6N 121.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 5SE 5SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.6N 130.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 136.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 143.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BERG