National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 485 FOPZ15 KNHC 022049 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 96(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 87(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 60(61) 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 41(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 485 FOPZ15 KNHC 022049 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 96(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 87(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 60(61) 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 41(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 407 WTPZ35 KNHC 022048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 ...TINY DORA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 115.6W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 115.6 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Friday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...TINY DORA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 2 the center of Dora was located near 15.4, -115.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 642 WTPZ25 KNHC 022047 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected
to develop from this feature in the next day or two, where
environmental conditions appear favorable for further development. A
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as this system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, moving parallel to but
not far off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 012100 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.1W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.1W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 115.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 124.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 127.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 13.2N 133.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.5N 139.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023 920 WTPZ45 KNHC 012048 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023 Dora continues to become better organized this afternoon. The storm has maintained a well-defined curved band in its eastern semicircle as a cold central dense overcast has persisted near the center. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained unchanged this afternoon, but we also received an ASCAT-B pass at 1728 UTC which showed a peak-wind retrieval of 51 kt. Due to the very small size of the wind field seen from this scatterometer pass, it is quite possible this value may be undersampling the storm's maximum sustained winds. Therefore, the intensity was nudged upward to 55 kt for this advisory. Dora might be starting to make a gradual leftward turn, with the most recent estimated motion due west at 270/14 kt. There is not a ton new to report for the track forecast this afternoon, with a large mid-level ridge expected to build northwestward relative to Dora. This evolution should result in Dora turning west-southwestward beginning tomorrow and continuing through the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). So far, Dora shows little signs of pausing its intensification rate this afternoon. Vertical wind shear remains very low (at or under 5 kt) and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) remain very warm (29 C or warmer). Assuming dry air does not disrupt the small inner core that has formed today, rapid intensification (RI) appears likely for the next day or so. This expectation is supported by SHIPS-RII guidance from both the ECMWF and GFS, which show a 74 percent chance of a 35 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. These values are 12-13 times above its climatological mean. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows this rate of intensification over the next day, ultimately peaking Dora as a 110-kt category 3 hurricane in 48 hours. This intensity forecast is not that far off the most recent HCCA intensity aid but is still a bit lower than the latest HAFS-A/B guidance. Thereafter, SSTs begin to drop down to 27 C and a modest increase in easterly shear may lead to some gradual weakening. Hard-to-predict inner core changes during this period may also result in some intensity fluctuations, possibly larger than shown here given how small Dora is forecast to remain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.1N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.9N 115.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.4N 117.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 14.5N 124.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 13.9N 127.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 13.2N 133.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 12.5N 139.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2023 20:43:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2023 21:22:53 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 012041 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 55(55) 7(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 115W 50 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 73(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 65(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 82(86) 1(87) X(87) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 59(59) 1(60) X(60) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 1(40) X(40) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 50(64) 1(65) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 18(49) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 012041 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023 ...DORA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 110.1W ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn towards the west-southwest over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24-36 hours and Dora could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DORA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 the center of Dora was located near 16.1, -110.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dora, located several hundred miles off the southwestern coast
of Mexico.

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form towards the latter part
of this week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel
to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dora are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dora are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 224 WTPZ45 KNHC 312041 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Through this morning and afternoon, the system we have been monitoring several hundred miles offshore to the south of the coast of Mexico has improved in organization on satellite imagery, with plenty of curved convective bands along its northern semicircle. A couple of bulls-eye ASCAT passes earlier this afternoon indicated that a closed circulation had formed at the surface, with believable 25-30 kt winds on its northern flank. We also received a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.0/30-kt from TAFB this afternoon. The aforementioned data supports initiating advisories on the system as a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The initial motion of the depression is north of due west at 280/12 kt. A prominent mid-level subtropical ridge is located poleward of the cyclone and is expected to move westward with the system throughout the forecast period. The orientation of the ridge ahead of the system may even result in a west-southwestward motion by the middle to latter part of this week. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, especially for a system that has only recently formed, though some speed differences exist towards the end of the forecast period. The initial NHC track forecast has opted to remain close to the reliable consensus aids, roughly in between the faster HCCA and slower TVCE guidance. Environmental conditions appear quite favorable for intensification over the next few days. Both the GFS- and EC-based SHIPS guidance shows deep-layer vertical wind shear remaining 10 kt or below throughout the forecast period as sea-surface temperatures underneath the system remain above 28 C for the next 3 days. While there will likely be some mid-level dry air lurking near the system during this time-span, this may not harm the cyclone as much as just keeping its convective core small. In fact, most of the hurricane-regional models show the system significantly intensifying as a small tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows this evolution, with significant intensification expected, especially between 36-72 h after the system has an opportunity to develop an inner core that takes better advantage of the favorable conditions. A period of rapid intensification during this time frame is also possible. This initial intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance this cycle, and is roughly a split between the higher HWRF/HMON and lower HAFS-A/B runs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 14.8N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 15.5N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 15.8N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.1N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 13.3N 125.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 12.7N 130.9W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2023 20:40:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2023 21:23:07 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 312038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 110W 34 X 11(11) 30(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 55(57) 26(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 23(44) 1(45) X(45) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 61(62) 15(77) 1(78) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 16(44) 1(45) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) X(24) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 6(56) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 312038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 104.4W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to west-southwestward by the middle portion of this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the system could become a hurricane by the middle part of this week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 the center of Five-E was located near 14.8, -104.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2023 015 WTPZ25 KNHC 312036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.4W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.4W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.5N 106.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.8N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 114.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.3N 119.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 13.3N 125.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 12.7N 130.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 104.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple hundred
miles to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. In addition,
recent satellite wind data indicate its circulation is also becoming
better defined. If these trends continue, a tropical depression
could form as soon as later this afternoon. The system is forecast
to move generally westward near 15 mph over the next few days,
moving farther away from the Mexican coast. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to
produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
proximity of nearby dry air is likely to prevent significant
development of this system while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form towards the end of this week a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible by the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin