National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Aug 2023 20:47:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Aug 2023 21:23:07 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152045 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 Fernanda seems to be resuming a weakening trend possibly due to moderate deep-layer shear and embedded dry air. Infrared satellite images indicate that the coverage of deep convection has decreased during the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB remain at 77 kt and 102 kt, respectively. CIMSS ADT and AiDT estimates are in the 90 kt to 99 kt range. Thus, the initial intensity is decreased to 90 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is now moving westward at 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A weak mid-level ridge to the northwest of Fernanda is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next several days. The current NHC track forecast has been updated with minor adjustments. The official forecast track takes Fernanda over cooler waters, crossing the 26C isotherm in 18 to 24 hours. While the current moderate vertical wind shear is expected to diminish in about 12 hours, the hurricane will be encountering an increasingly dry and stable airmass. Therefore, Fernanda is forecast to quickly weaken over the next couple of days. Fernanda is now expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.3N 122.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.7N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.9N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/0600Z 18.2N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 18.4N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 18.4N 144.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z 18.2N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Delgado/Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 152040 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/BUCCI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 152040 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 ...FERNANDA RESUMES WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 122.8W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 122.8 West. Fernanda is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days. Fernanda is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday and weaken to a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Delgado/Bucci

...FERNANDA RESUMES WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Aug 15 the center of Fernanda was located near 17.3, -122.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 041 WTPZ22 KNHC 152040 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.7N 129.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 132.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.2N 150.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern
coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days or so, while the system moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Delgado

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 142036 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 Fernanda has been maintaining a well-defined eye some 10 n mi in diameter with very cold surrounding convective cloud tops. The upper-level outflow pattern remains well defined, particularly to the north. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 115 kt and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS are also near that value. Thus the intensity estimate is held at 115 kt, i.e. category 4 strength, for this advisory. Although there have been some trochoidal wobbles in the motion, which is fairly common in intense hurricanes, the overall motion continues to be westward or slightly north of westward at a rather slow pace, 6 kt. The mid-level ridge to the north of Fernanda is still rather weak due to the influence of a cutoff low near the California coast. Global model predictions show the ridge becoming better established over the next several days, which should result in some increase in forward speed. In 3-5 days, the shallower and weaker cyclone is likely to be carried on a westward track following the lower-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track is basically an extension of the previous one and remains in good agreement with the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. Although it is likely that Fernanda has reached its peak intensity, the hurricane should remain in a favorable SST and atmospheric thermodynamic environment until tonight so some additional short-term strengthening is possible. After about 12 hours, the influences of drier air and cooler waters should begin to take their toll, so the official forecast shows a steady weakening trend in 1-4 days. This is in good agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 119.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 130.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Aug 2023 20:36:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Aug 2023 21:23:01 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 142035 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 142035 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023 ...FERNANDA MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 119.0W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 119.0 West. Fernanda is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Fernanda is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although a little more strengthening is possible later today, a weakening trend is likely to begin late tonight or early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...FERNANDA MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 14 the center of Fernanda was located near 15.9, -119.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 142034 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.2N 122.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.9N 130.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern
coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next few days, while the
system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of the Bay of Campeche:
Another area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec over the weekend. Some gradual development of the
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Aug 2023 20:39:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Aug 2023 21:22:55 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 669 WTPZ42 KNHC 132037 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Satellite imagery indicates that small Fernanda has been strengthening rapidly today. A faint eye has become apparent on visible satellite imagery, and outer banding features are becoming better defined. Since the presence of a visible eye is usually a good indicator that a tropical cyclone has become a hurricane, the system is being upgraded on this advisory. This intensity is also in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB. The upper-level outflow pattern has also become more symmetric over the circulation. Fernanda continues moving west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace with an estimated motion of 285/8 kt. The mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is currently rather weak due to the presence of a cutoff low near the California coast. Over the next few days, the ridge to the north of Fernanda is forecast to strengthen as the influence of the cutoff low lessens. As a result, the system should move somewhat faster to the west-northwest during the next 72 hours or so while turning westward later in the forecast period. The official track forecast remains very close to the previous one and is also very similar to the dynamical model consensus aid TVCE. The hurricane should continue to pass over SSTs of around 29 deg C for the next day or two while remaining in a very low vertical shear environment. The rapid intensification (RI) indices such as SHIPS, RII, and DTOPS continue to show a good chance of RI continuing over the next day or so. Thus, the official forecast will again call for RI over the next 24 hours. However, in about 48 hours, drier mid-level air should halt the strengthening process. The numerical guidance is in good agreement that Fernanda will steadily weaken in 2-5 days, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 132037 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 17(17) 21(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 1(27) X(27) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 132036 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 132036 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 ...FERNANDA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 116.5W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Fernanda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Fernanda is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...FERNANDA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 the center of Fernanda was located near 15.5, -116.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.