National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062053 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 Fabio is showing indications of slight weakening this afternoon, possibly associated with its continued close proximity to Tropical Storm Emilia. Cloud-top temperatures have warmed, and visible satellite imagery indicates that the center has become partially exposed on the west side of the storm. Subjective and objective intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, respectively, also suggest that Fabio has weakened slightly. Based on these estimates and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity estimate is decreased to 50 kt for this advisory. Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 300/18 kt. The uncertainty in the track forecast remains higher than usual, due to the ongoing interaction between Fabio and Emilia. The current forecast favors that Emilia will absorb Fabio, as shown by the GFS and the ECMWF. The forecast timing of Fabio's demise is in between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The GFS holds onto Fabio about a day longer than the ECMWF solution. The current forecast is slightly to the north of the prior forecast and similar to the best-performing consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. It appears that the upper-level outflow from Emilia is impacting Fabio, and this should preclude significant strengthening. None of the better performing intensity guidance aids indicate significant strengthening, and the new NHC forecast now shows Fabio weakening steadily before merging with Emilia. This solution is close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus models, as well as the prior forecast. However, given the track forecast uncertainty, a change in the forecast philosophy is not out of the question for subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 19.2N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.0N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 20.9N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062052 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 120W 34 X 13(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062052 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.9W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.9W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.0N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062051 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 115W 50 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 59(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/HOGSETT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062051 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.3W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 110SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.3W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 119.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.1N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/HOGSETT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...EMILIA DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 115.3W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 115.3 West. Emilia is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and it is forecast to accelerate northwestward through Wednesday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Emilia could briefly become a hurricane. Weakening is expected to begin by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Hogsett

...EMILIA DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Emilia was located near 14.4, -115.3 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062051 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 ...FABIO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH EMILIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 113.9W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 113.9 West. Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and is expected to turn to the west during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio merges with Emilia. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hogsett

...FABIO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH EMILIA... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Aug 6 the center of Fabio was located near 19.2, -113.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, and on Tropical Storm Fabio, both located well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 14:50:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 15:29:28 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 Fabio has remained steady this morning despite its close proximity to Tropical Storm Emilia. Cold cloud-top temperatures associated with the central dense overcast area that developed overnight have persisted this morning. Further, subjective and objective intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS continue to suggest that Fabio is holding its own. Based on these estimates and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity estimate is held steady at 55 kt. Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 300/15 kt. Uncertainty remains among the track guidance solutions, particularly related to the interaction between Fabio and Emilia. The current forecast favors the ECMWF solution that Emilia will absorb Fabio, and the current forecast shows this merger occurring in about 36 hours. However, the GFS shows two cyclones that remain distinct and rotate around each other during the next three to four days. The current forecast leans toward a merger and is similar to the prior advisory and better-performing consensus aids. While Fabio remains in a favorable shear and thermodynamic environment, the proximity to Emilia should preclude significant strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast now shows Fabio remaining steady for the next 24 h before weakening slightly and subsequently merging into Emilia. This is close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. However, based on the divergent solutions in the global models, a change in the forecast philosophy could be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.7N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 19.7N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 061447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 57 31(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA CLARION 50 2 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 2 29(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 63(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 061447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024 ...FABIO HOLDS STEADY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 112.0W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 112.0 West. Fabio is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours until Fabio merges with Tropical Storm Emilia on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hogsett

...FABIO HOLDS STEADY... As of 8:00 AM MST Tue Aug 6 the center of Fabio was located near 17.7, -112.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 973 WTPZ21 KNHC 061447 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 114.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 117.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 75SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 648 WTPZ45 KNHC 061446 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Following a burst of deep convection near the center of circulation overnight, Emilia has remained steady this morning. Scatterometer data overnight showed a well-organized circulation, and a combination of subjective Dvorak estimates and objective intensity estimates indicate that the intensity has not changed much since the prior advisory. Thus, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Emilia has begun a turn toward the west-northwest, but the motion remains an uncertain 300/5 kt. Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio are in the midst of a complex interaction, which will determine the fate of both storms. The systems are forecast to rotate slightly around each other, prior to Emilia becoming the dominant storm. Of note is that the global GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems show different solutions, with the GFS solution keeping Emilia and Fabio more distinct. The current advisory leans toward Emilia becoming dominant, absorbing Fabio, and turning westward over the next several days. The current forecast is similar to the prior forecast and near the consensus models. The interaction with Fabio makes the intensity forecast challenging. The current forecast favors the solution in which Emilia absorbs Fabio in a few days. Thus, steady intensification is forecast over the next 24 h, with Emilia reaching hurricane strength on Wednesday. While the timing of the merger is uncertain, the storm is forecast to gradually weaken into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period as it moves over cooler ocean waters and into a generally less favorable environment. Due to the uncertainty associated with the interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio, changes to Emilia's forecast could be necessary in later advisory packages. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.0N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.7N 115.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 18.7N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 21.2N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.9N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hogsett

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 208 FOPZ15 KNHC 061445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 83 5(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 115W 50 12 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 35(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 109 WTPZ35 KNHC 061445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 115.2W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Emilia is now moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and it is forecast to accelerate northwestward during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Emilia was located near 14.0, -115.2 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.