National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 272041 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 272040 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 127.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.6N 130.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.4N 132.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.4N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.8N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 19.1N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 121.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271706
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ten-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located about 700 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
tropical eastern Pacific. For additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a low pressure area located about 800 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern and southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some slow development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward toward
southwestern Mexico. Interests in southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the
northwest or north-northwest. Interests in southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central East Pacific (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure system located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward over the central portion
of the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while
it moves slowly to the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula within the next day or
two. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system later this week and this weekend
while it moves west-northwestward over the central portion of the
tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the
coast of Central America or southern Mexico during the next few
days. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form late this week while it moves slowly northwest to
north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated 0

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated 0

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hilary, located over the United States Rocky Mountains.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form offshore of the
coast of Central America or southern Mexico during the next few
days. Any subsequent development of this system should be slow to
occur while it drifts toward the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Future information on Hilary can be found in Public Advisories
issued by the Weather Prediction Center under AWIPS header TCPEP4,
WMO header WTPZ34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 241 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Issued at 216 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 821 WTPZ24 KNHC 202049 CCA TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 116.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 116.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2023 20:39:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2023 21:41:46 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 202036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 Hilary made landfall over the northern Baja California Peninsula a few hours ago with maximum winds estimated to be around 55 kt. Since then the storm has continued to move north-northwestward with the center now nearing the California/Mexico border. Maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 50 kt based on the earlier aircraft data and satellite estimates. Surface observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds have spread into southern California and there have been a few reports of gusts around hurricane force. In addition, radar images show that bands of heavy rain have spread across portions of the southwestern United States and this will continue through early Monday. The storm is moving quickly to the north-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 345/20 kt. An even faster motion to the north-northwest is expected during the next day or so as Hilary moves in the fast flow between a ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. Little change was made to the previous track forecast. Continued weakening due to dry air, and land interaction is expected, but Hilary is forecast to remain a tropical storm while it moves over southern California through tonight. The strongest winds are expected to be to the east of the center and in areas of high terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations for flooding impacts across the Southwestern United States should be completed with the peak intensity of heavy rainfall expected later today through early Monday morning. The potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening to locally catastrophic flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows through early Monday morning. Localized flooding impacts, some significant, are also expected across northern portions of the Intermountain West. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across the northern portion of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area during the next few hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread well inland across the western United States. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 35.8N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 41.8N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 202036 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S CATALINA IS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) YUMA AZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TIJUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ENSENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ENSENADA 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P PENASCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 202035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023 ...CORE OF HILARY NEARING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 116.1W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Punta Eugenia on the west coast and south of Bahia San Bautista on the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula west coast from Punta Eugenia northward * Baja California peninsula east coast from Bahia San Juan Bautista northward * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located inland near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 116.1 West. Hilary is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h) and the storm is expected to accelerate even more as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move across southern California in the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to continue, but Hilary is forecast to remain a tropical storm while it moves across southern California. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust of 70 mph (113 km/h) was reported at Sill Hill, California. A sustained wind of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust of 72 mph (116 km/h) was reported at Hauser Mountain, California. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is expected. Intense heavy rainfall associated with Hilary is expected across the Southwestern United States through early Monday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada leading to dangerous to catastrophic flooding. Across portions of Oregon and Idaho, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with local maxima to 5 inches are expected through Tuesday morning, resulting in localized significant flash flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for this storm can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through the evening in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight in the warning area in southern California. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will persist even after the system becomes post-tropical. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California today through early Monday. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through this evening over southeast California, western Arizona, southern Nevada, and far southwest Utah. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi